New Indiana Poll: Evidence Obama is stronger vs McCain

Last updated on July 1st, 2012 at 06:11 am

ImageA new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll released today showed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama statistically tied in the Hoosier State.

Obama leads Clinton 41%-38%, but once the margin of error of 4.2% is factored in, the race is even. Where Obama does hold a clear advantage is in the hypothetical head to head matchup with John McCain.

Clinton ties McCain at 46%, but Obama leads the Republican 49%-41%. Even after the margin of error of 4.4% is factored in, Obama still McCain by 3+ points. Some of the trends in the poll are the same as what we have seen in other states.

To get more stories like this, subscribe to our newsletter The Daily.

Obama leads Clinton among urban and suburban votes 47%-33%, but Clinton leads with rural voters, 55%-20%. Obama lead with voters age 18-35, 48-34%, and Clinton leads with voters over age 55, 43%-32%. Clinton leads among white women 48%-29%, but Obama has a small lead with all women, 41%-40.

Is it any surprise that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied in another state? Once again, this is a state that will probably come down to demographics. Clinton is able to run close there because it is 50.7% female, and 88% white.

Indiana is an average state with 12.4% of its residents over age 65. It is also a state that is under the national average for amount of people holding bachelor’s degrees or higher. In short, much like PA, this is a state that Clinton should at least hold her own in.

This is why Obama being tied is such good news, because unlike in PA, Clinton won’t have a large bloc of older voters to appeal to.If Obama can win in Indiana, he can put to rest many of the fears that he can’t win a primary in a state with a high percentage of white voters. (Remember, Iowa was a caucus, not a primary).

Wins in Indiana and North Carolina would finish Clinton off. I wouldn’t expect either candidate to pull away in Indiana, but even a small win will be good enough for Obama.

Indianapolis Star-WTHR Poll:

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/NEWS0502/804250437/1324/NEWS0502



Copyright PoliticusUSA LLC 2008-2023