I know this is going against all political polls, political thought and conventional wisdom. But we are in unconventional times. People actually believe that a Romney nomination would give President Obama a run, while a Gingrich candidacy would ensure an Obama victory. I’m not sold on that and here is why.
Romney is not inspirational. Romney reminds me of a CEO who is giving a lecture to the shareholders on the direction of the company. He is detached from the average American, and American people know that. Also, as the old cliche goes, it’s better to elect the “devil” you know than the “devil” you don’t and considering the similarities between Romney and Obama, think Healthcare mandate, people will gravitate toward the incumbent.
Newt Gingrich, on the other hand has a great ability to “inspire”, not with hope but with fear. Fear is always the tactic of the right. Rather than using fear of Osama Bin Laden, like Bush did in 2004 with the terror alerts Newt is using the economy. Newt uses “food stamps” like Reagan used the term “welfare queen.” Newt’s use of epithets strikes fear and uncertainty into the voting populace and they may gravitate toward the polar opposite of Obama. It would be a fight over ideals, and the two candidates would present a stark contrast in the tone of our politics.
Romney doesn’t have this ability. As I said before, he reminds me of a lecturer explaining his direction for a corporation.
Obama, like Newt has the ability to communicate and rally people around him. Obama is a great communicator, much like Reagan, which is why I believe a Gingrich communicator vs Obama communicator will be a tougher fight than Romney against Obama.
So, against all conventional wisdom, where the belief is that a Newt nomination would be a walk in the park for Obama, I think the opposite is true. Obama will beat Romney profoundly, by 3-5% but against Newt, it would be very marginal victory, possibly less than 1% either way.
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