Three new polls of the critical swing state of Ohio all agree. Barack Obama is currently leading Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State.
Obama leads Romney in the Time poll 49%-44%. Time’s polling also revealed that there are two races going on in Ohio right now. Among voters who haven’t voted yet, the candidates are tied 45%-45%, but President Obama is dominating Romney with early voters 60%-30%. Obama is leading with women 56%-37%, while Romney is leading with men, 51%-42%. Romney is leading with white voters (49-43), while Obama is leading big with young voters and minorities. Romney’s negative message about the economy isn’t working in Ohio, as 54% of those surveyed believed the country is on the wrong track, but 51% also believe that their state is on the right track.
Obama leads Romney 47%-44% in the SurveyUSA poll. Much like the Time poll, Romney leads with men (49%-42%), while Obama holds a double digit lead with women (52%-40%). Obama leads by nine points (49%-40%) with voters age 18-49, and Romney holds a small three point lead (49%-46%) with those over age 50. Romney leads Obama by just 5 points with white voters (49%-44), and the president leads 70%-22% with African-Americans.
A Lake Research poll has Obama leading 46%-44% in Ohio. The poll found that Romney is struggling with men in the state. The Republican leads Obama with men by just a four point margin, 47%-43%. Obama leads Romney with women 49%-41%. Romney’s biggest problem in the state is that more Ohio voters have a negative view (49%) than have a positive view (47%) of him. In contrast, 52% have a favorable view of Obama and 44% have an unfavorable view of the president.
Even Republican pollster Rasmussen has Romney tied with Obama (48%-48%). Rasmussen polls contain a 4 point Republican bias, so when the extra four points are factored in, even the Republican poll is in line with the other three. In total, four new polls of the state of Ohio were released today, and Mitt Romney is leading none of them.
If Obama’s domination of early voting continues, and the candidates split the vote on Election Day, the president will carry Ohio. A key number to pay attention is the amount of the total vote in the state that comes in through early voting. In 2008, 33% of the vote in Ohio was done during early voting. If this percentage is higher in 2012, it bodes well for President Obama.
Mitt Romney is not performing strongly enough with white and male voters to offset the big Obama advantages with young people, women, and African-Americans. Romney can’t split or narrowly win Ohio white voters and men. He will have to beat Obama by double digits to even have a chance of winning the state.
For those of you who are concerned about the voting machines in Ohio, keep in mind that an election has to be close for fraud to have an impact. Election fraud can really only shift a very close contest. A five point lead is too much to be manipulated. People must be vigilant, but the best way to ease election fraud concerns is for President Obama to build up a lead so large in early voting that it can’t be taken away.
The Romney campaign continues to claim that they are gaining ground in Ohio, but as we draw closer to Election Day, Obama’s lead continues to remain at a roughly 3-5 point margin. It becomes difficult to impossible for Romney to win without winning Ohio. The Republican candidate has no choice but to keep competing there; however, it is looking more and more like Mitt Romney is spinning his wheels and getting nowhere fast in Ohio.