During a roundtable discussion on Sunday’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Republican pundits displayed overconfidence of the Republican Party’s chances of taking over the Senate and expanding their majority in the House in this year’s midterm elections. They used the results of the special election in Florida’s 13th District last week to make that case. Last Tuesday, Democrat Alex Sink narrowly lost to Republican David Jolly in the election to replace the late Bill Young. Young, a Republican, had represented the district since 1971 before passing away in October 2013.
Matthew Dowd, a conservative political analyst for ABC who previously worked for President George W. Bush, started off the discussion by stating that this election was completely lined up for the Democrats and they weren’t able to pull it out due to the unpopularity of President Obama. He also said it was a sign of things to come in November.
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STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, let’s get to the roundtable now here with ABC Matthew Dowd, Greta Van Susteren from Fox News, Georgetown University professor Michael Eric Dyson, Bill Kristol editor of the Weekly Standard, and Katrina Vanden Heuvel editor and publisher of The Nation. Welcome to you all.
Matthew, let’s begin with this special election. Sometime these special elections are a real sign of things to come, sometimes they aren’t. This time?
MATTHEW DOWD, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: I think this is a big sign of what’s going to happen in November election. I think when you had this, everything was lined up actually in this district for the Democrats to pull out this victory. They had the better candidate, better name idea. They actually had more money in this. And the Republican candidate actually was very flawed, a former lobbyist in all of this.
And they, Democrats tried to use the playbook that they used in 2012, which is big data, all of the logistics. But what happens in these races is big wave always big data. And this wasn’t about some big pro-Republican candidate, it is that the president’s job approval, where the country — where the people see the country in this sets it up very badly for November.
Dowd made an erroneous statement when he stated that the Democrats spent more money than the Republicans in this race. Per Politico, the Republican Party spent $5 million in support of Jolly, while Sink and the Democrats spent a total of $4 million. So it is disingenuous to say that the Democrats had more money in the race and still lost. Dowd is giving the appearance here that Jolly overcame lots of obstacles, including financial, to take this seat. Nothing could be further from the truth.
As Jason Easley wrote after the special election, Republicans enjoy an 11-point advantage in that district in regards to voter registration. Sink lost by less than 2 points. Jolly also worked for Rep. Young as an advisor before becoming a lobbyist. While the district barely went for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Young remained a very popular figure there. Jolly being closely associated with him was only going to help. This wasn’t going to be a slam dunk for Democrats. It was always going to be tough sledding for the Democrats with a very likely chance of losing in the end.
Bill Kristol later weighed in and, of course, stated that the election was a referendum on Obamacare. He then referenced Jolly’s last ad to make his point.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But Bill Kristol, that is what the Democratic candidate tried to do in this race, Alex Sink. She said the issue with health care, don’t repeal — mend it, don’t end it.
BILL KRISTOL, WEEKLY STANDARD: Right. And Jolly, the Republican candidate, his key ad at the end went as follows, it’s very short. She supports Obamacare. I don’t. I’m David Jolly. And I approve this message because we need someone to look out for our interests not President Obama’s.
Pretty simply message, pretty strong message. She was a respectable candidate. She wasn’t a member of congress, so she never voted for Obamacare. So this ad was potent in Florida 13. How does this ad read if you can’t just say she supports Obamacare, but she voted for Obamacare repeatedly, which is what they can say about Democratic House candidates and Democratic senators.
I think Obamacare — you know, you can talk about different agendas. I agree Republicans need a more energetic economic agenda, Republicans need to be for replace as well as repeal. I think that’s very important in health care. But at the end of the day, the Obamacare vote is a huge thing.
You know, you’d think if Obamacare was the prevailing reason why Sink lost in a district where Republicans have an 11 point advantage, then she would have lost by a greater margin than she did, right? The health care law wasn’t the reason she lost. The reason she lost is the district has been represented by a Republican for nearly 50 years and special elections generally have lower than normal turnouts. These two things combined made it a difficult task for any Democrat to win. It had nothing to do with Obamacare.
The panel then went on to discuss Scott Brown running in New Hampshire and how he might be able to help the Republicans take over the Senate. Of course, they barely touched on the fact that he is not seen very positively in the state, with recent polls showing him down by double-digits against incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Those recent polls of New Hampshire voters also show that they feel Brown is a carpetbagger and an interloper. Brown has a huge mountain to climb in terms of public perception in that state if he wants to win.
The Sunday shows are just a place for Republicans to go on and push their selected narrative of the moment. Right now, they are pushing the storyline that Obamacare is weighing down Democrats’ chances in this year’s midterms and that Florida’s 13th District proves that. On top of that, Jolly’s win has emboldened Republicans to the point that Brown decided to announce he is running for the Senate. This conveniently ignores the fact that Brown was going to announce his candidacy sooner or later anyway. If Sink won, Brown still would have announced. One thing has nothing to do with the other.
But don’t tell that to Republicans. For the GOP, narrative is everything. And right now, the current narrative is that the Democrats are floundering and the midterms will bring a ‘huge wave’ of Republicans in the House and Senate. Democrats need to not play along and forge ahead supporting populist ideals like raising the minimum wage, extending unemployment benefits, supporting marriage equality and passing a jobs bill. As long as they do that, and Republicans oppose those types of measures, Democrats will find that the electorate will vote for them in November.
Justin Baragona is the Managing Editor at Politicus Sports as well as Senior Editor at PoliticusUSA. He was a political writer for 411Mania.com before joining PoliticusUSA. Politically, Justin considers himself a liberal but also a realist and pragmatist. Currently, Justin lives in St. Louis, MO and is married. Besides writing, he also runs his own business after spending a number of years in the corporate world. You can follow Justin on Twitter either with his personal handle (@justinbaragona) or the Sports site’s (@PoliticusSports).
