A new SurveyUSA poll of the US Senate race in North Carolina brings bad news for Democrats. The poll shows Democratic Senator Kay Hagan with low approval numbers (38 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of her job performance). In head-to-head match-ups she trails each of her potential Republican opponents by margins ranging from one to four percentage points. While these races are close enough to be within the margin of error, the fact that Hagan does not have above 45 percent support in a match-up with any GOP opponent should be cause for concern among Democrats.
The North Carolina race is critical if Democrats hope to maintain control of the US Senate after the 2014 election. Furthermore, the race may serve as a barometer for other competitive Southern Senate races where Democratic women face off against Republican candidates like the races in Louisiana, Georgia, and Kentucky. A one to four point deficit seven months before the general election is no reason to panic, but Democrats do need to pay attention to their current standing in polls as they struggle to hold the U.S. Senate by defending seats in red states like North Carolina.
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Many Democrats have chosen the path of denial, lashing out at poll tracking statistical guru Nate Silver for forecasting a better than 50 percent chance of a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2014. However, rather than insisting that Democrats are in great shape to hold the Senate and dismissing models that suggest otherwise, Democratic consultants and activists should redirect their focus. Instead of trying to persuade people that the polls are wrong, Democrats need to convince people to vote by stressing how critical the midterm elections are this cycle.
The North Carolina Senate race is just one of many crucial toss-up Senate contests that hinges on turnout this year. The early numbers clearly show that Senator Hagan is in the danger zone. It is up to progressive and middle of the road voters to not only turn out to vote in November but to motivate their friends, family, and neighbors to do so as well. Rather than ignoring the latest poll, Democrats should use it as a call to action.
Keith Brekhus is a progressive American who currently resides in Red Lodge, Montana. He is co-host for the Liberal Fix radio show. He holds a Master’s Degree in Sociology from the University of Missouri. In 2002, he ran for Congress as a Green Party candidate in the state of Missouri. In 2014, he worked as a field organizer for Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s successful re-election bid in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District. He can be followed on Twitter @keithbrekhus or on Facebook.
