The latest Marquette Law School poll finds that Democrat Mary Burke and Walker remain locked in a statistical dead heat.
The new Marquette Law School poll found Gov. Walker leading Democrat Mary Burke 46%-45%. Walker’s lead was within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error, so the race is tied. The latest results show a contest that isn’t moving as in May, Walker and Burke were tied at 46%-46%. A key finding is that among likely voters, Burke leads Walker 47%-46%. Walker has dropped two points with likely voters since May, and Burke has gained two points.
Women favor Burke over Walker 48%-41%, but men favor the Republican 52%-42%. Voters age 18-29 favor Burke over Walker 48%-35%, but voters age 40-59 favor Walker 51%-42%. Married voters favor Walker 54%-38%, but unmarried voters favor Burke 53%-34%. The one issue that is likely to sink Scott Walker isn’t the John Doe scandal. It’s jobs. Walker’s job approval splits have shifted four points since May. Walker has gone from a net (+3) 49%/46% to a net (-1) 47%-48%. On the jobs issue, only 9% of respondents thought Wisconsin was creating jobs faster than other states. Forty-two percent believed Wisconsin was creating jobs at the same pace as other states, and 43% said that Wisconsin was lagging behind other states.
There is both an opportunity and danger for Mary Burke that can be found in the fact that 49% of Wisconsin voters said that they hadn’t heard of, or didn’t know enough about her. The lack of name recognition offers Burke a chance to run as the fresh voice against Walker. The danger is that if Burke doesn’t do a good job defining herself to the electorate, Scott Walker will do it for her with a tidal wave of negative ads.
The Wisconsin governor’s race is winnable for Democrats. Gov. Walker’s poll numbers are the definition of meh. Walker a mediocre candidate who can be defeated if Burke can successfully define herself as the jobs candidate. The Wisconsin governor’s race will come down to turnout. If the electorate looks more like the one that showed up for Obama in 2012, Walker will likely lose. If 2014 turnout is a repeat of 2010, Walker will probably be reelected.
An opportunity to get rid of Scott Walker is there, but Democrats have to organize, mobilize, and show up at the polls in November. If younger voters and unmarried women show up to vote, Scott Walker will be the former governor of Wisconsin.