Momentum is shifting as the nation moves closer to Election Day. Two new models give Democrats a better than fifty percent chance of keeping control of the US Senate.
The Washington Post’s Election Lab model has Democrats as a 51% favorite to keep the Senate.
According to The Post, here is what changed,
* Colorado: On Aug. 27 — the last time I wrote a big piece on the model — Election Lab said Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning. Today he has a 94 percent chance.
* Iowa: Two weeks ago, the model gave state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) a 72 percent chance of winning. Today she has a 59 percent chance.
* Kansas: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts’s reelection race wasn’t even on the radar on Aug. 27. Today, Election Lab predicts that he has just a 68 percent chance of winning.
Princeton professor Charles Wang’s model gives Democrats a 70% chance of keeping control of the Senate.
While the modeling for presidential elections has come a long way, the same can’t be said for other lower profile contests. Models are only as good as the polling data that they are based on. Inaccurate polls will lead to inaccurate models, but what is clear is that momentum has shifted in the battle for control of the US Senate.
Republican candidates are greatly underperforming expectations in North Carolina, Michigan, Arkansas, and Iowa. The Republican Party was feeling good about their chances of defeating Democratic incumbents in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina, but it very possible that they could lose two or even all three elections.
The models all agree that Republicans will hold on to Senate seats in Kentucky and Georgia, however Democrats might not need to pick up a Republican controlled seat to keep the Senate. Models are an aggregate snapshot of the current electoral landscape. The picture can and will change in the weeks ahead. Momentum has shifted, as the Democratic bid to keep the Senate has gotten stronger.