A survey of Democratic insiders revealed that they expect the result in Nevada to be close, but that Hillary Clinton will emerge with a narrow victory on Saturday.
Politico’s survey of Democratic insiders is predicting a close victory for Hillary Clinton in Nevada:
A number of Nevada Democratic insiders said the nature and relative newness of the state’s presidential caucuses were a boon to Clinton.
“I believe it will be close, and the outcome will depend, of course, on how many of Sanders’ young supporters actually come out to caucus on a Saturday morning,” said one Democrat.(Continued Below)
“Clinton will win the type of victory that shows that organization does still matter,” added another. “To that point, Team Bernie invited press to a phone bank last week, and their volunteers didn’t even know when the caucus was taking place. It won’t be a big margin for Team Hillary, but it will be a clear win that the can build on headed into South Carolina.”
One Nevada Democrat said the fact the race is close shows Clinton is no longer an unassailable front-runner.
The one point that the Democratic insiders agreed on was that the Nevada firewall doesn’t exist for Hillary Clinton. If Clinton wins Nevada, it is likely to look like her victory. The fact that Nevada is a same-day registration state with a fluid population is viewed as working in Clinton’s favor, as she leads with voters who participated in a previous caucus.
Anyone who states with certainty that they know what is going to happen in Nevada on Saturday is either lying or engaging in wishful thinking. It is a cliche that is used to downplay expectations, but in the case of Nevada, the caucus really could go either way. Both of the polls of the state’s Democrats show a virtual tie, but since nobody is 100% sure who will show up to caucus, the result is nearly impossible to predict.
It is likely that neither Democrat will leave the state with a decisive victory. Buckle up, because Democrats may be in for another fun ride in Nevada.