Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 06:59 pm
A new PPP poll of Arizona shows that Mitch McConnell’s obstruction of President Obama may cost John McCain his Senate seat, and McConnell his Senate majority.
Even if McCain does manage to survive the Republican primary, it’s not going to be a walk in the park for him in the general. His overall approval rating is 34/52, and he leads Ann Kirkpatrick only 42/36 in a head to head match up. The race is close despite Kirkpatrick having only 58% name recognition at this point. If Ward advances to the general election it looks like this contest will basically be a toss up- she gets 37% to 35% for Kirkpatrick so it’s pretty much a wash.
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One issue that’s tricky for McCain right now is the Supreme Court fight. 61% of voters in the state say they support confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, compared to only 24% who are opposed to them. By a 17 point margin voters say they’re less likely to vote for a Senator who opposes hearings- 40% say that stance makes them less likely to vote for someone, compared to only 23% who consider it a positive. But among Republican voters there’s 35/44 opposition to hearings, and voters say by a 16 point spread that they’re more likely to vote for someone who opposes hearings. So McCain’s obstructionism might be helpful in getting him through the primary, but it’s a completely different story when you get to the general. For instance independents support hearings, 65/21.
Mitch McConnell has put John McCain in a nearly impossible position. Thanks to McConnell’s obstruction of President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, McCain now has to oppose hearing to win a heavily contested Republican primary, but he could lose his seat in November if he opposes hearings for Garland in the fall.
If McCain loses his seat, the Republican Senate majority is toast. To complicate matters even more, Sen. McCain is going to be saddled with the unpopular Donald Trump at the top of the ballot. It is possible that Arizona’s Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers to vote against Trump and take McCain out in the crossfire.
The ripple effects from Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s decision to obstruct President Obama could result in Democrats killing two birds with one stone. Democrats could both send John McCain into retirement, and end McConnell’s time as Majority Leader all because McConnell couldn’t resist obstructing President Obama one last time.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
