Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 07:00 pm
The average of polls contains a wake-up call for Republicans that shows why Donald Trump remains likely to lose in November.
The May national polls have no value when predicting the results of the likely head to head general election contest, but there is a statistic in the Real Clear Politics average of polls that should encourage Democrats while frightening Republicans.
Here is the latest RCP average:
To get more stories like this, subscribe to our newsletter The Daily.
What you will notice is that Donald Trump never climbs above 43%. Hillary Clinton has the potential to get into the 50s, but Trump has been stuck at 43% or below since July of 2015.
John McCain got 45.6% in the vote in 2008. Mitt Romney got 47.1% of the popular vote in 2012. Donald Trump is on pace to perform 3-4 points worse than Romney and McCain each did in 2008 and 2012. Trump is also currently enjoying a post presumptive nominee bump in the polls, which is likely to evaporate once the Democratic primary ends.
The average of polls shows that Trump has never led Clinton with a majority of the electorate. Donald Trump’s ceiling may be closer to 45% than 51%. Trump is a low upside nominee because of his high name recognition and the saturation media coverage that he has received. There is no way for Trump to introduce himself to voters or redefine himself with the electorate.
Hillary Clinton doesn’t have the whole Democratic Party behind her yet, and Trump still can’t break 43%. This one fact is the biggest reason why Donald Trump is likely to lose in November. Trump could be peaking now, and things may get much uglier for Republicans by the time voters are ready to go to the polls in November
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
