Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:13 pm
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll revealed that Hillary Clinton has erased the voter enthusiasm gap and moved out to a seven-point national lead over Donald Trump.
Clinton leads Trump 48%-41% in a two-way race and 42%-37 in a four-way contest with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
NBC News reported on the poll’s two key findings:
Seventy-eight percent of Trump’s voters say they are highly interested in November’s general election – registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale – versus 75 percent of Clinton voters who say that.
What’s more, 68 percent of Clinton voters respond that they will “definitely” vote for her, compared with 66 percent of Trump supporters who say that about the New York businessman.
The basic dynamics of this election remain unchanged. Clinton is crushing Trump with African-Americans (81%-7%), women (51%-37%), and voters age 18-34 (50%-34%). Trump continues to underperform Mitt Romney’s numbers with men, as he barely leads Clinton 46%-44%, and with white voters (49%-41%). The fact that Trump isn’t breaking 50% with white voters is a big red flag that suggests that the Republican candidate has hit the ceiling on his level of support.
Donald Trump’s support isn’t growing. Hillary Clinton’s numbers change depending on the media coverage that she is getting in a given week, but Trump is stuck at between 37% and 41%.
Democrats have erased what enthusiasm gap there may have been, and it can be expected that Democratic enthusiasm will grow in the weeks to come.
The 2016 election is following the familiar pattern of 2012, with the only difference being that Donald Trump is a weaker candidate than Mitt Romney. National polls aren’t as important as state level polling, but the narrative that Donald Trump had any momentum has been crushed over the past 72 hours.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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