A new Politico/Morning Consult in-depth study of the electorate has found that there is no silent majority of hidden Trump voters. Trump voters aren’t hiding their support, and that if Republicans were counting on a silent election day wave, they’re likely to be disappointed.
The study talked to voters both online and with live interviewers to determine if people were hiding their support for Trump. It concluded that there is no social desirability effect among voters, “Overall, there is no mode effect among likely voters. Clinton leads by 5 (52-47) by phone and by 3 (51-48) online. This is an effect in the expected direction (Clinton performing better on the phone), but it’s not statistically significant.”
The study did find that more affluent and well educated Republican households were more likely to hide their support for Trump, but the idea that there is a big wave of disgruntled lower-middle class white voters who are going to rise and power Trump to the White House is false.
There are affluent and well-educated Republicans who don’t want their Republican friends to know that they are supporting Trump. This dynamic helps to explain the tightening of the polls. Many Republicans were always going to support Trump. They just didn’t want to say it out loud.
The number of Never Trump Republicans might be exaggerated, but the reality is that Donald Trump still lacks the level of support needed to win the White House.
There is no hidden Trump vote. There are no shy Trump voters. It is just the Republican Party, and the shrinking GOP tent has proven in previous years that it lacks the numbers needed to win a presidential election.