An analysis of the voter file from the jungle primary in the Georgia House special election showed that Democrat Jon Ossoff has attracted a key level of Republican support in the district.
Politico reported, “The voter-file analysis of the special primary was conducted by Optimus Consulting, a Republican data-analytics firm that has been observing the Georgia race. The voter file allows Optimus and others to dig for details about who exactly turned out for the first round of the special election, and how they likely voted. And the firm’s most conservative estimates say Ossoff captured at least 8 to 10 percent of the GOP’s votes in the primary, a critical slice given that Republicans comprised only a narrow majority of the electorate. While Ossoff’s campaign and motivated Democrats helped drive unusually high levels of voting in the primary, it’s clear that more than turnout propelled Ossoff’s campaign into his one-on-one runoff match-up with Republican Karen Handel in a longtime GOP district.”
Ossoff isn’t campaigning against Trump in the primary. Instead, he is focusing on a bipartisan message of fiscal conservatism, and playing the powerful Washington outside card.
The idea of Democrats now being able to run as political outsiders haven’t gotten nearly enough consideration and attention. People are unhappy with Washington, and Republicans own 100% of the reason for that unhappiness. The Ossoff campaign is the first test case for the notion that Democrats are now on the offensive against the Republican-controlled Congress and White House.
Here is an example of the message that Democrats are targeting towards conservatives who could support Ossoff in the runoff:
If Ossoff can hold on to the 8%-10% of Republican voters that he attracted in the first primary, he will have an excellent chance of flipping the seat. The data suggests that the backlash against Trump and the GOP is very real to the point where enough Republican-leaning voters could be willing to send a Democrat to Congress in Georgia’s 6th district.
The combination of apathy among the Republican base, Democratic energy, and motivation, along with a political backlash against an unpopular president and majority party could be combining to form the first ripples of a Democratic wave that could sweep Republicans out of Congress in 2018.