Trouble could be brewing for Republicans in deep red Alabama as the first poll after the Republican Senate primary runoff finds Democratic candidate Doug Jones trailing Republican Roy Moore 50.2%-44.5%.
The poll was conducted for Decision Desk HQ by Opinion Savvy, and revealed, “Moore boasts a huge lead among evangelical voters, 67.8% to 28%, while Jones boasts an even larger lead among non-evangelicals, 69.7% to 26.7%. Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8% to Jones’ 70.9%, while among white voters, Jones has a surprising 36.1% to Moore’s 58.5%.”
What this means is that Moore is a weaker general election in Alabama than Luther Strange would have been. It is only one poll, but it does hint that the door could be open for Democrats to run a competitive race in the state.
As in other special elections in deep red states, dumping millions of dollars into the state to help the Democratic candidate won’t be enough to win. Republicans have a deep partisan advantage in Alabama, but there is one potentially powerful that Jones could make. The Democrats could flip this seat by making this election all about Roy Moore and how he would embarrass his home state if he won.
There is no doubt that Republican voters made this election a lot closer than it might have been if they had nominated Strange, but that doesn’t mean that Democrats will win. It will take a special campaign, and much more than millions of dollars to flip the seat.
Republicans have a problem in the Alabama Senate race, and while it is not the most likely outcome, Democrats have a chance flip the seat formerly held by Jeff Sessions.