Election expert Charlie Cook evaluated the political weather and concluded that a wave is coming for Democrats in 2018.
Writing in the Cook Political Report, Charlie Cook based his analysis on several factors:
At this point, some politicos, very likely Republicans, are doubtless asking, “What wave?” The answer is the one right in front of us. We know that midterm elections are referenda on the incumbent in the White House and that Donald Trump’s approval ratings are at a historic low at this stage of a presidency. Could they suddenly turn upward? Sure, but they have been pretty stable in the mid-to-high 30s for months.
According to the national polls, the generic congressional ballot test points to a wave as well. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman estimates that Democrats need to win the House popular vote, which is what the generic ballot test tries to replicate, by at least 7 or 8 points to win 218 districts, the barest of majorities. The RealClearPolitics average is a Democratic advantage of 10.7 points; the last eight RCP averages have shown the Democratic lead ranging from 7 to 15 points.
Cook also points to the 2017 election results that inability of the Republican Congress to get anything done as factors pointing toward Democrats in 2018. While Cook cautions that things could change between now and 2018, there is no evidence that the kind of miracle that Republicans’ need to hang on to power in 2018 is on the horizon.
The general problem for Republicans is that midterm elections are usually bad for the president’s party. 2018 has the potential to be a catastrophe for Republicans because Trump has spent time dividing and attacking his own party. All of this could change by next November, but counting on that change is unrealistic. Republicans have been deeply divided for a decade. Those differences aren’t going to suddenly dissolve when there is an election to win.
Democrats have the momentum and the majority of the country on their side. If they do the hard work, they are in a position to reap the rewards of Democratic Congress in 2018.