MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki breaks down where Doug Jones needs to get his votes from and what voters he must flip if he is going to win a Senate seat in Alabama.
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Kornacki described what Jones’s path to victory will look like:
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If you’re a Democrat, if you’re getting blown out, there’s basically 13 counties in the state. You can still count on. These are predominantly black counties. This swathe of the state here and Jefferson where Birmingham is, about 40% black. Democrats win those. Had the question is where else can you win. If you’re Jones, there are two keys to this race. Number one, what is the turnout going to look like in here in particular among black vote? When you talk about President Obama, the robocalls, the idea Su want high black turnout and assume strong democratic vote but what is the turnout. The second question is how do you get that 35% that Clinton got up towards 50%? You need to flip white voters.
A specific type of white voter is the target for the Jones campaign, suburbanite, college educated culturally a little more moderate. Three key places to look tomorrow night. Madison County where Huntsville is, in Jefferson County immediately here and also right outside of it. Shelby County. We’ll be talking a lot about Shelby County and down by Mobile and outside Mobile, Baldwin County. Here the idea is, college educated suburban whites. These are the type of traditional Republican voters who the Jones campaign feels could be so offended by Moore that they turn. That’s the — you high black turnout and flip white voters in those places. That’s the path if it’s there for Jones.
It is important to note that this is another election that was handpicked by Trump. One of the reasons why Jeff Sessions got nominated to be attorney general was because Republicans thought that they would have no problem holding on to Sessions’ Senate seat in Alabama. The nomination of Roy Moore made this election much closer than it has any right to be, but the political terrain is still tough sledding for a Democrat.
The polls are all over the place, which suggests a tight election. If Doug Jones is going to win, he has to flip some white voters and keep Democratic turnout strong. Jones has a realistic path to victory, but there are a few key factors that will make or break his night in Alabama.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
