Democrats need 24 seats to win back the House, but history tells that an incumbent president with an approval rating below 40% loses at least 40 House seats. In other words, the Democratic wave could be enormous in 2018.
Mark Murray of NBC News broke down what Republicans are up against:
Murray said, “The person who holds the white house ends up losing about 28 house seats. Democrats need win 24 to pick up the house of representatives. But a president below 50% of the approval rating and Donald Trump is in the 30s or 40s. A president below 50% ends up losing more than 40 house seats. So looking at those numbers, the president’s standing very, very instructive. At the end of the day, these waves are determined but highway big and how well run the campaigns are. If the elections were held tomorrow, I think Democrats would be poised for a very, very big election night but we have 11 months to go.”
To get more stories like this, subscribe to our newsletter The Daily.
The idea that Democrats don’t vote in non-presidential elections was kicked to the curb in 2017 as Democrats set turnout records all across the country after Trump took office. To say that Democrats are motivated right now would be a massive understatement.
What is happening isn’t enthusiasm or motivation. Democrats are focused and determined to put a check on a president and presidency that many feel is corrupt and illegitimate. These elections aren’t about Democrats being fired up. They are about a party that rediscovered its core and sense of purporse. For eight years, Barack Obama was the firewall that made Democrats feel secure.
Obama almost did too good of a job, because the running joke in Democratic circles was that no matter what went wrong, Obama would handle it. Former President Obama tried to tell Democrats that it was their turn now, but they didn’t get the message until after Trump became president.
Democrats get it now, and the size of the upcoming wave will leave Paul Ryan out of a job, and Trump looking like a one term president heading into 2020.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
