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Democrats Roar Back and Appear Ready to Retake The House in 2012
A new Democracy Corps survey of 50 battleground districts that Barack Obama virtually swept 2008, but that elected 35 freshmen House in Republicans in 2010 revealed that the new GOP House majority is in jeopardy for 2012. Only 40% of voters surveyed in these districts said that they would reelect their incumbent compared to 45% who said that they would support someone else.
The 35 House incumbents were identified by name in the survey, but 38% of them were not able to be rated in their home districts by voters, which suggested that these incumbents are not well known. Of the respondents who were able to identify their representative, the Republicans had a net (-10) negative ratings. Only 25 of people gave these incumbents a positive rating compared to 35% who viewed them negatively.
One number that stands out above all others is that 45% of voters in these new Republican House districts said that they can’t vote to reelect the incumbent. Only 40% said they would vote to elect their incumbent. This was not a generic question asked in each district. The incumbents were asked about specifically by name in their home districts. Republicans won these races by 14 points in 2010, but they lead by just two points now, 46%-44%. In the top 25 battleground districts, Democrats lead by a point 46%-45%.
Democracy Corps provided some historical comparisons to illustrate how shaky the ground is beneath the feet of this new GOP House majority, “For comparison, in July 2009, after the luster of President Obama’s inauguration had already begun to fade, the Democratic incumbents in our battleground of 40 districts had a 6-point advantage over a generic Republican challenger. 36 of these 40 Democrats went on to lose their seats. And in June of 2007, in the top 35 most competitive Republican-held districts, the incumbents also held a 6-point lead. 19 of those 35 Republicans went on to lose their seats. And of course, we know that in 2010, two-thirds of Democrats in McCain seats could not hold on. The Republicans in Obama seats are already at risk.”
When this information is combined with the Pew poll yesterday which found that support for House Republicans among Tea Partiers has dropped by more than 20%, this paints a portrait of an already endangered majority. Add in the fact that Obama will be back at the top of the ballot in 2012 in districts where he ran extraordinarily well in 2008, and the elements are in place for a perfect storm.
Democrats need to win 25 seats to retake the House in 2012, and they have already targeted 35 vulnerable freshmen House Republicans. Historic modeling doesn’t seem to apply any more to US congressional elections. The American electorate is impatient and anxious. They want results now, and by focusing on culture war issues instead of jobs and the economy, House Republicans are putting themselves back on the fast track to minority status.
2012 is likely to look more like 2008 than a change presidential election. Republicans could field an even weaker candidate in 2008, while they will be facing a personally popular incumbent president with loads of cash, and a large mobilized bloc of voters who didn’t come out to vote in 2010. It would surprise no one if these Obama Democrats swamped Republicans in battleground districts, and not only reelected Barack Obama, but also returned Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership.
With any luck, Democrats will have John Boehner crying for an entirely different reason on Election Night 2012.
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28 Responses to Democrats Roar Back and Appear Ready to Retake The House in 2012
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Phil Perspective
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 11:39 am
Love that picture of Orange Julius(aka Cryin’ Man)!
AFM
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 11:54 am
That is rust you see.
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:18 pm
if you look at how his face droops, it might remind you of someone who might drink a little too much. just sayen
Phil Perspective
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 2:10 pm
It’s one of those open secrets that Versailles doesn’t talk about. Just like it won’t talk about Lindsey Graham’s open secret.
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 2:29 pm
OMG, Lindsay is…..Bald?
Phil Perspective
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 4:14 pm
No. Just lets say he has a Larry Craig-like problem, along with about a dozen other GOP’ers.
proudfoot
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 11:49 am
Weeper of the House Boehner will go down in history as one of the worst Speakers this country has ever had next too Newt.
Phil Perspective
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 2:11 pm
You are so right.
Sarah Jones
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 11:59 am
They vilified Pelosi but their best replacement was Boehner.
I hope people are paying attention. Apply this equation to every other position and what do you get?
Vote Democratic until the Republican Party gets serious about its job again, and don’t take them at their word. They must prove it. You will know when they are serious when they admit that Bush screwed things up, that unfettered free markets are not realistic or fiscally sound, and that fiscal conservatism involves generating revenue, which is taxes (and taxes on corporations are a great way of generating revenue and do not kill “jobs”). If they like competition so much, why are they always handing entitlements to corporations?
majii
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:30 pm
I’ve been wondering for a while now whether the republicans’ new “winning strategy” is a result of advice from Frank Luntz. If he told them that attacking collective bargaining, womens’ rights, regulations that are meant to protect citizens, and making the middle class and poor pay for huge subsidies for corporations, among other things would endear them to the American people, I believe these poll results will be very hard for them to swallow.
Hrafnkell Haraldsson
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Don’t cry, Johnny!!
Phil Perspective
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 4:23 pm
Hraf:
Thanks!! Now you have this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=G...
running through my head. ;-)
Reynardine
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:24 pm
I don’t think they can keep the majority or gain the White House legally, and I don’t think they intend not to. Watch out for any vote- rigging they can get away with – everything from electronic tampering to physical creation or destruction of ballots to purging of qualified voters just before the election – and on the Presidential level, watch out for faithless electors.
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:24 pm
I am not sure I need detect the excitement that I wish for from the Democrats as of yet. are Congressman are still laying down being walked over by the Republicans, and the media is treating everything that the Republicans are doing is absolutely normal politics as usual.
Wait, did I just blame the lame stream media?
I agree with you Sarah in saying that I hope people are paying attention, but I will take it one step further. I hope the Democrats whoever or wherever they may be have something really huge plan for 2012 because if they don’t we’re screwed. if they don’t have a program to bring out every single little thing that Boehner and his gang of mental derelicts have done in an attempt to show America exactly what Republicans have done we are cooked.
I mean it better be big too.
Anne
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Republicans did what they always do when they gain power. As always, they overreached but in a manner that is more widespread and coordinated than previous overreaching. I’m quite sure they know that they can only win with dirty tricks to rig the votes in their favor. Because of their history of this, I don’t put anything past them.
In any case, they have given prospective Democratic opponents plenty of ammunition to work with, and these prospective opponents need to fight fire with fire. The public needs to be reminded each and every day from now up to the 2012 elections just why voting for these bozos is against their best interests, and then the Democrats running against them need to sell positive policies that are an antidote to the GOP nihilism.
Anne
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 12:39 pm
I believe that John Boehner will go down in history as the most inept, counterproductive, and ideologically driven Speaker at least in recent times, with the possible exception of Newt Gingrich. If anyone ever thought he could hold a candle to Nancy Pelosi, they must be feeling pretty foolish right about now.
Janet Carter
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
LOL. I got very tickled at that headline and photo combination, Jason. Priceless.
Don R
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 4:57 pm
I just discovered this web page! I love it! It’s so great to hear the whinings of a group of liberal progressive windbags tell the world what they are going to do in 2012, how great the president is, and what a load of crooks the republicans are. Sounds like a ton of sour grapes to me! You people want more taxes, then simply write a check to the US treasury, in excess of what you owe! They will accept it, and cash it. And, PLEASE, keep undermining and discounting the TEA PARTY, as they, not the republicans, did you in in 2010. Regarding Sarah Palin, and 2012! She just ain’t runnin! She knows that she is too valuable, in telling folks how it is, and you know what, … a majority of voters believed her in 2010, and they will believe her in 2012. So, you just keep sweepin her under the rug, making your jokes, and have your good laugh. She sneak up on you again, WILL kick you butts in 2012, without even being on the ballot! Losers!
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
I am afraid we have found an example of a person who is not allowed to do his own research. If he did he would not even mention Sarah Palin’s name.
You may wish to look at the polls on what even the Republicans think of Sarah Palin. You may not be so happy.
Conservative Heart
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Brother Don,
Amen, Amen, Amen, my brother! This site is so full of liberal blowhards who just rant and rave and rant and rave and don’t take a moment to pause of breathe or even really think about what they’re saying. I mean, I love how you make salient point and keep it all rational. Oh, and backed up by facts. Your research is impeccable and even better than your research is your innate ability to simply be right because you are conservative who supports Sarah Palin. Palin herself possesses this very same ability to just simply be right now matter what, even in the face of what liberal losers like to call “facts.” God loves Sarah Palin and God loves the Tea Party. If he didn’t, why would he have given the Tea Party a second coming? I mean, the first time in Boston was already totally AWESOME but this second time around, clearly God wants another revolution only this time, we’re not dumping tea overboard, no sir, this time we’re dumping liberal losers and democrats overbaord. Sarah will definitely win in 2012 because she’lll have the majority of the people’s support, just liek all the polls currenlty show her with 20% of the rpublican paryt. God knows 20% of the republican party is a major majority adn there fore Sarah WILL kick LIBERAL BUTT. Those LOSERS! Stupid windbags who can’t take a damn break to see how idiotic and nonsensical they sound. REally, you and i would never do that b/c wer’e good Americans and we love this country. Patriots don’t ramble on and on without the slightest consideration of other people. No, God taught us better than that. PALIN/BACHMANN 2012!! SCREW Obama and screw Trump and screw Hillary. It’s Palin time and it’s Bachman time and TEA Party CONSERVATIVES will kick butt in 2012, just like we overtook the majority of Congress in 2010!
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 7:36 pm
Letes not forget the recent Florida tea party convention that could have been held in the back room at a Dennys :) Dennys dont let “those” people in either
allen
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 9:04 pm
you my friend r a brain washed ditto head, go back to the sand box and play with your fascist friends
as for the democratic party … as a liberal… the real problem as i see it is this:
the country is suffering the worst downturn since the great depression, if not another depression mitigated by food stamps and unemployment insurance
but the left, if such a party or political persuasion still exists in the united states of america, is completely devoid of solutions to the american who has lost his job to foreign outsourcing, corporate greed, automation etc…
according to the statistics i read it’s been 30+ years since the average american worker has had a raise… all the income during that period has ended up in the hands of the uber wealthy
therefore, u have at least one generation, perhaps 2, that will not do as well as there parents concerning standard of living
but where are the democrats offering solutions???
yes there are pundits such as Robert Reich and Paul Krugman amongst many others who have offered solid solutions
but where is one elected democrat coming out and first of all countering trickle down economics, and offering a substantive narrative that counters the RIGHT WING media postulates of tax cuts for the rich create jobs
one person that is totally lacking in using the bully pulpit is Barack Obama who has totally failed to use his position to counter the RIGHT WING claims
w/o that what does the left have
i cant’ blame a guy (or girl white/black etc…) who has lost their job for turning to the fascist tea baggers (Rush, Hannity, FOX NEWS, etc…)
that group gets their message out there and is heard loud and clear with their solutions, however misguided
what would you do being one of these “forgotten people” if one ideology has an answer and the others are too big a wimps to offer a counter solution
until the democratic party faces head on the republican lies concerning the economy and FORCEFULLY proposes and somehow institutes a remedy
they will continue to flounder and the rest of the american workers will suffer
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Allen, conservative heart is kinda along the lines of sarcasm
Reynardine
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Ah, Don R! Sing along with the bouncing elephant:
Merily we troll along, troll along, troll along…
Reynardine
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Should read, “merrily”, of course.
Realist
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 9:38 pm
I don’t share the celebration over the Republicans doing what they do best. The Democrats desperately need a better reason for us voters to select them on the ballot than that they are less bad than the GOP.
We correctly chant “Where are the jobs, Boehner?” Yet we should have been chanting “Where are the jobs, Harry?” I say it this way because Obama left the leadership of the Democratic majority to an ex-boxer with a glass political jaw. The hint that a GOP punch might land there sent Reid skipping back to his corner.
The situation in America for the bottom 98% has yet to improve no matter how much the corporate media crows. Until it does, American voters have no reason to vote for either party. Obama either steps up and begins to act like a leader, or he can kiss off his re-election prospects. The Democratic Party either pushes him into action, or they push hi aside for someone else. If they do neither, the GOP will win no matter what the polls now claim.
Shiva (Moderator)
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 9:48 pm
No, the GOP cant win with what they are doing. Very few in America are going to put up with their actions against the workers of the US. Dropping taxes on the rich and corporations, adding taxes onto the lower middle class and lower class, Bringing Back School Segregation, unfunding schools and education and anything you can name under the sun. GOP will not win anything in 2012.
Realist
Mar. 23rd, 2011 at 10:12 pm
The Democrats do not deserve to win. They have done nothing for America but allow the GOP to have their way with us. We desperately need another option besides being the monkey in the middle of these two groups of incompetents.