Swing States Poll has Obama Leading McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania
Submitted by jmeasley on Tue, 08/26/2008 - 16:30.
Technorati Tags: 2008 Election Barack Obama Jason Easley John McCain Poll news politics 2008 election Quiinipiac University Poll Ohio Florida Pennsylvania John McCain Barack Obama
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The latest Quinnipiac University swing state poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania was released today. It revealed little surprise as McCain leads in Florida, 47%-43%. Obama leads in Pennsylvania, 49%-42%, and the race is a virtual tie in Ohio with Obama leading 44%-43%.
In general, Florida has flipped into the McCain column. Obama has lost six points in the state, which should be no surprise to anyone. All three states voiced the desire to have a Democrat in the White House. By a margin of 44%-39%, Florida voters want a Democratic president. In Ohio the margin is even bigger, 44%-35%, and in Pennsylvania the margin is 50%-32%. There is also a direct relationship between the desire for a Democrat and President Bush’s approval rating. In Florida, Bush’s approval rating is 32%, in Ohio its 30%, and in Pennsylvania it is 25%.
John McCain’s base of support is men, and white voters. In Florida, McCain leads Obama 50%-41% with men, but among whites, his margin grows to 55%-35%. In Ohio, McCain leads with men 50%-37%, and with white voters, 49%-38%. In Pennsylvania, McCain leads both men and white voters by a much smaller margin of 47%-43%. The trend here is that the margin the between the candidates in each state is dictated by the degree of support he gets from white voters and men.
Another key demographic in this race is age. Obama dominates with young voters (age 18-34). McCain leads with older voters (age 55+). The critical group in each state is voters age 35-54. In Florida, this group goes for McCain, 48%-42%. In Ohio, the two candidates are tied at 43%, and in Pennsylvania, Obama leads 49%-41%. As you can see there is a direct relationship between who this middle age group supports and the overall race in each state.
Overall, at the state level, the general election is turning into a replay of the Democratic primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. I think that the GOP would be overjoyed to have this race at 50/50 on the morning of November 4. The economy was listed as the most important issue by 52% or 53% in each state. This combined with the fact that voters in each state want a Democratic president, makes it safe to conclude that the voters aren’t sold on Obama.
I think the conventions will help each candidate, but this race might be the first one since 1960 that will be decided by the presidential debates. In 1960 John F. Kennedy had to convince voters that he could handle the job of being president and he did so in the first presidential debate with the, at the time sitting vice president, Richard Nixon. Obama will likely be in a similar situation this fall. He is going to have to stand beside John McCain, and convince voters that he is ready to be president.
Technorati Tags: 2008 Election Barack Obama Jason Easley John McCain Poll news politics 2008 election Quiinipiac University Poll Ohio Florida Pennsylvania John McCain Barack ObamaTrackback URL for this post:
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Choices
Let’s see my choice is John McCain or that smart black man Barack Obama?
McCain who does not know how to use a computer but is willing to learn if we elect him – I’ll just vote for that smart black man.
My Choices are: John McCain who says the economic downturn is psychological? - Na! I'll vote for the smart black man.
McCain who says you are better off under George Bush? - Nope I'll vote for the smart black man.
Mc Cain who wants to continue killing more people looking for weapons of mass destruction that do not exist? - Gee! I'll vote for the smart black man.
McCain who believes that we should stay the course but is not willing to support the people he puts in harms way. - I'll take a chance on the smart black man.
Should I vote for a man that does not know that 9-11 was caused by Osama Bin Laden not Sedam Hussein? - Easy! I'll vote for the smart black man.
Vote for the man who does not know if the Sunnis or Sheits are our enemies? - No way I'll vote for the smart black man.
Vote for the man who helped put our government on the China, Saudi Arabia credit card? - Not a chance I'll vote for the smart black man.
Vote for the man with the worst temper in the Senate to have his finger on the nuclear button? - No way - I'll vote for the smart black man.
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ARE YOU A DEMOCRAT? TEST
Are you a democrat test?
Would a Democrat vote for a man who voted against raising the minimum wage in, 1989, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2006?
Would a Democrat vote to kill our bravest young people for 100 years looking for weapons of mass destruction that do not exist?
Would a Democrat vote for a man who does not know that 9-11 was caused by Osama Bin Laden not Sedam Hussein?
Would a Democrat vote the man who does not know if the Sunnis or Sheits are our enemies?
Would a Democrat vote for the man who voted against increasing benefits for the military that he sends in harm's way?
Would a Democrat vote to keep putting our government on the China, Saudi Arabia credit card?
Would a Democrat vote for tax cuts only for the wealthy?
Would a Democrat vote for opposition to SCHIP?
Would a Democrat vote for tax credits for health care instead of a nation health care system?
Would a Democrat vote to overturn Roe v. Wade?
Would a Democrat vote for a right-wing Supreme Court?
Would a Democrat vote for a third Bush term?
Would a Democrat vote for a man who says the economic downturn is psychological?
Would a Democrat vote for a man who says you are better off under George Bush?
Would a Democrat vote for a man who says irresponsible, undeserving homeowners are losing their homes? But is fortunate to own 8 homes!
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THE PEOPLE THAT MCCAIN OWES ALLEGIANCE TO
What countries does McCain owe allegiance to?
Is John McCain in the pocket of oil companies?
Is John McCain in the pocket of insurance companies?
Is john McCain in the pocket of pharmaceutical companies?
Here is a list of lobbyists and employees of major companies working in leading positions in the McCain campaign. It will answer any questions you might have about the people who are advising and influencing him.
http://mccainsource.com/corruption?id=0006
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Think about it!
Oh! Get real!
Do you really think that when it push comes to shove the American people will vote for four more years of Bush/Mccain?
Scary thought!
We will be in Iraq or Iran depending on how his mind is working that day.
The Sunnis or Sheits will be our enemy, Terrifying isn’t it!
We will spend all our social security funds fighting a 100-year war.
The rich will become richer and the poor poorer.
There will no longer be a middle class.
A man with the worst temper in the Senate will have his finger on the nuclear button
This nation will belong to the Chinese And Arabs because they already own this country.
That is why this white Republican woman from Arizona is voting for Obama.
(¯`’•.¸//(*_*)\\¸.•’´¯)
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Earmark is not a dirty word.
I live in Sedona and John McCain is not a neighbor of mine his property is in located in CORNVILLE, 22 miles away. Why is this Republican not supporting John McCain? With out question it is his lack of support for our state in Washington. McCain’s call to fame is that he is the only representative in Washington never to request any earmarks for his home state. What does that prove? To me it shows that in McCain’s mind Arizona is so wealthy that we do not need any assistance from Washington. It seems he is happy to see all the tax dollars that we send to DC go to other states. Wake up John McCain! Arizona has Indian Reservations with unemployment over 60%. We have beautiful rural areas that would greatly benefit from an increase in tourism. His lack of concern shows that when John and Cindy fly over our state in their private plane that they do not pay attention to the people that live outside of Scottsdale. Lets see if in November the citizens of Arizona will send him a message and not vote for him.
This is one Arizona Republican supporting Obama.
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