Allan Lichtman’s model for predicting presidential elections, The Keys To The White House, has correctly predicted the results of seven straight presidential elections, and the keys say that Obama will be reelected in 2012.
Lichtman’s model is based on 13 keys which evaluate the performance of the man who holds the presidency. If six or more of the keys go against the president’s party, the incumbent loses.
Here are the 13 keys and how they stack up for Obama via U.S. News’ Washington Whispers:
1). Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
2).Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.
3). Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
4). Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.
5). Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”
6). Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
7). Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
8). Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
9). Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
10). Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
11). Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
12). Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.
13). Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.
These keys measure the things that have historically caused an incumbent president to lose his reelection bid. As you can see, Obama stacks up pretty well. The current president wins 9 keys and loses 4. One of the major assets to Obama’s reelection effort which isn’t measured by the keys is the lack of popularity of the opposition party. Republicans are much less popular than Obama.
There are several components needed to defeat an incumbent president, a charismatic candidate, a good message, a yearning for change in the electorate, but none is more important than basic popularity. The Republican controlled House is historically unpopular. None of the Republican presidential candidates have high approval ratings with all voters. As John Kerry demonstrated in 2004, a successful nominee can’t win with a campaign message of I’m not him. It takes more.
In order to defeat an incumbent, a challenger must prove that they would not only be a better president, but that they have a plan that voters can get behind. The planning part is where the wheels completely fall off for the 2012 GOP candidates. As a group they have been pushed so far to the right on issues like Social Security, Medicare, unemployment benefits, job creation, and raising taxes on the wealthy that they are virtually unelectable.
Presidential elections are now 30 second ad personality contests. Obama may have struggled to connect as president, but he is still the best campaigner of his generation. (Bill Clinton was the very best that I have ever witnessed on the stump. Reagan was the most disciplined). Frankly, voters still personally like Obama, and I would not bet against him wooing them on the campaign trail again.
Republicans love themselves a tough talking cowboy, which is why Rick Perry is threatening to run away with the GOP nomination, but after 8 years of George W. Bush, there is little chance that the American people are going to put his Lt. Governor in the White House. Perry is the tea party’s feel good candidate, but would be the Joe Miller/Christine O’Donnell/Sharon Angle tea party train wreck of a nominee.
Lichtman’s model has gone 7 for 7, and with the way the Republican Party is imploding, 8 for 8 wouldn’t surprise anyone.
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I agree with what is being said in this article..but I hope the Democrats don’t take nothing for granted about 2012 We have to make sure we get out the vote and stop the cooked shit the Repugs will try to do to steal the election as they have done before. No more of that BS for sure.
Well……….I like it!
Although I agree President Obama is in a very good position right now, based on the crop of GOP candidates… we don’t dare become complacent in 2012.
We need to keep heat on regarding opposition statements. Remind voters WHO went after and got Bin Laden (with the reminder that Bush & McCain didn’t think much about him anymore). Which party is FOR saving Social Security & Medicare? Which party has worked towards stimulating the economy and promote job growth?
Plus – help Dems to win back some seats in the senate with GOP races in WY, CO, Nev, Indiana, Arizona, TX, Miss., Maine, TN, and hold as many of the Dem contests (33) retiring or re-election.
I agree with enjay. I foresee Obama winning IF the dem base and converts vote. In 2010 the dems laid down and asked for a whipping. The republicans are acting so badly right now its stinks but that does not win the election for Obama. I hear an outcry in Mich, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, but I dont hear it from America yet. I hope its there
unfortunatly.. i dont see a whole lot of party unity, the republican partys obstructionism should doom them to minority status, for a generation..
I am very concerned that citizens united was a “game changer” making making prior observations meaningless..
I will work for the partys slate, albeit not as enthusiastically as i did in 08.. to do less would be to admidt defeat, and im not ready for total Draconain Fuedalism
thanks for the atricle.. i truley want to believe we will win by a landslide, and end up with super majorities in both houses..
This is encouraging news, but the fact remains that the president needs a Congress that is also about solutions to problems and not obstructionism. It also helps to elect governors and other state officials who want to solve problems. The situations in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and others with Tea Party/Republican governors, as well as the GOP-dominated House, demonstrate that the effectiveness of voting in a president is undermined when these other officials are a bunch of do-nothings who are ideologically driven by greed and short-sighteness.
The Republicans are almost the natural majority party of America. Dems can never be complacent ro over confident in approaching any election.
They are very strong now with the highest number and proportion of elected officials at the state and federal levels since the 1920s. Their well funded and well staffed suburban political machines will always turn out big pluralities for their candidates.
The Dems have Obama, who is himself a major plus in the 2012 election. The administration has a reord of successful foreign and military accomplishment and has enacted major reforms domestically.
The insecurity over the high deficits and the poor employment picture have uncoupled a lot of people from their normal political affiliations. The Dems were able to ride this disatisfaction in 06 and 08. In 2010 the GOP were able to dissuade people that the government and the political system offered them short or long term benefit, transformed it into a base election and their suburban machines changed history.
Dems have to hammer the point home over and over again, jobs, better wages, and economic growth will come when the public sector focusses us on job creation.
The GOP policies of low taxation have been in effect since 2001- WHERE ARE THE JOBS?
Whew! Am I glad I read this article. No more worrying about if Obama will be reelected or not. (Really, this article is so comforting to read).
I would vote for Obama a thousand times over. He is a prize for America and the repubs absolutely know that. Obama is so into their heads they are rife with hate and want to bring him down whatsoever. Dems have to fight hard for “our” president and that is exactly what I am doing, being one of his staunchist supporters w/OFA.
Obama will go down in history as one of the best ever presidents.
(He is already rated as 15th best president by some historians.)
He is well on his path to victory…again.
well hopefully lichtman’s yardsticks will prove correct, but it isn’t 100% assured, because there are other factors unnamed or underestimated that could be decisive. one is that the republican base will be much more united than will the democratic base. it’s unlikely blacks will turn out in mass numbers as they did in 2008 voting 92% for barack. they are worse off now than when the president took office. that’s a fact of life, not an inditement of obama. but if the november weather’s cold & rainy, they aren’t going to stand in line 6 hours to vote, especially when conservatives will do everything in their power to make it hard for them to vote. you can bet the koch brothers, coors beer, haliburton, enron & wallstreet will try & steal the election if it’s close. they also have an ace in the hole- the supreme court. and don’t be too sure about charisma, perry is very charismatic even if he is crazy as hell. the monster hitler was very charismatic like it or not. and a ticket of romney as presidential candidate & perry as vp candidate might prove hard to beat, for the same reason kennedy picked johnson in 1960, to win the south. they don’t like each other you say? so what, jfk & lbj hated each other’s guts. as the old saying goes, politics makes strange bedfellows. my own prediction now is obama will win in a very close race, but if the economy doesn’t improve, all bets are off.
This article makes me nervous as the author does not take into account the billions that will come in attack ads against Obama in 2012 by the Koch Bros and the hidden corporate and foreign money. That said the actions of the republicans and the insane stances the current crop of GOP candidates are spouting might scare more people to vote for Obama ensuring him a landslide. We can only hope because a President Perry, Romney or Bachmann will end the US as we know it. The rhetoric about Obama taking away freedoms will be nothing compared to what these rightwingers will do to us.