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New Georgia Poll: Presidential Race Tied Among Early Voters
By: Amy MortonNov. 3rd, 2012more from Amy Morton
Is the once bright red state of Georgia trending blue? According to recent polling and voter registration statistics, the answer is yes.
According to a just-released 20/20 Insight survey for Better Georgia, among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie. The survey, conducted October 30-31, asked voters their opinions in the election for President, 12th District Congressman (Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. Lee Anderson (R)), and other key state-level races and ballot issues.
According to Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), this year, for the first time in history, white voters will comprise less that 60% of active, registered voters in Georgia. A more diverse electorate tends to be more progressive, as illustrated in the results of the survey released today.
Here’s a snapshot of other results:
PRESIDENT
Despite a minimal investment in Georgia from either campaign, President Obama appears to be positioned to exceed expectations in the Peach State on election day. For President, 52 percent of respondents supported Mitt Romney (R), 46 percent supported Barack Obama (D) and 2 percent were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. Among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie – Barack Obama gets 49 percent and Mitt Romney gets 50 percent. (1,316 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.7%)
12th DISTRICT CONGRESSMAN
Among those surveyed, Rep. John Barrow, the last white Democratic Congressman in the Deep South, is leading his Republican challenger, Lee Anderson. 50 percent of respondents supported Barrow (D), while 44 percent supported Anderson (R), and 6 percent were undecided. Barrow is leading by 6 percentage points in a district that Obama is losing by 11 percentage points. (450 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 4.6 percent)
REPRODUCTIVE CHOICE
The majority of respondents, 52 percent, agreed that abortion is a choice that usually should be left to the pregnant woman to decide. Fully 90% of respondents agreed that there were some circumstances where abortion should be allowed. Only 6% believed abortion should never be permitted. Obviously, this does not bode well for the chances of getting Georgia voters to support the promised “personhood amendment” and shows that the Republican majority is out of touch with the electorate on this bellwether issue. (1,316 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.7%)
What does this mean going forward? While Mitt Romney will carry the state on Tuesday, the Republicans who now occupy every stateside office in Georgia should not bolt their furniture to the floor just yet. Georgia progressives are rapidly building the infrastructure needed to take advantage of Georgia’s emerging progressive electorate. There is work to do, no doubt, but in the not-too-distant future, signs point to a Georgia that is not red or purple, but instead, bright blue.
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Anne
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 9:31 am
It’s heartening to know that the GOP influence in the state of Georgia is being diluted, if not completely obliterated. I also expect the state to go into Romney’s column, but also have hope that one day it can become a swing state where the progressive influence will be dominant.
Amy Morton
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 10:04 am
Yes, there is perhaps no state that would benefit more from President Obama’s re-election than GA, politically and from a public policy stand point. Can you imagine the impact of an incumbent President if he helped turn out the base for Georgia statewide elections in 2 years? It could surprise everyone. We knew Georgia was trending. Most predicted a 6-8 year timeframe. Now, it looks like 2-4.
Fannie Marie Jackson Gibbs
Nov. 4th, 2012 at 6:19 am
I had to fill this in to reply. Have a beautiful day!
Amy Morton
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 11:11 am
Also, if you click on the link and look at the poll, you will see that we also polled a “charter school amendment” AKA “hostile corporate takeover of Georgia public schools.” This is a national issue as the ballot initiatives here and in Washington State are test cases. It looks like the amendment will prevail because of deceptive ballot language.
Benny Belloes
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 11:49 am
If all or a larger percentage of people of color would vote there wouldn’t be the problems this country see with this racist mentality of the Republican/TBagger party. The Republicans would need to move to center left just to have any chance of winning an election.
Amy Morton
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 12:18 pm
As we become more diverse, we become more progressive. And check out those numbers on choice! Who would’ve thought it?
Nancy
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 1:49 pm
WOW!!
Amy Morton
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 3:34 pm
I’ve talked with Republicans who hold elected office in Georgia who understand that we are trending. And then there are those who have their head in the sand.
Shana
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Oh the very idea makes me extremely happy. Especially on the abortion/personhood issues.
Stephanie
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Its about time we got rid of them Republicans!
Martha
Nov. 3rd, 2012 at 8:35 pm
That is wonderful news!
DobieTracker
Nov. 4th, 2012 at 5:13 am
please dont get complacent and not bother to vote !
polls are only in obama’s favor if if if if if
you actually go out and vote !
do not assume anything.
obama can only win if you actually go to the voting booth and vote>
remember, romney’s extreme right wing is very motivated and you can bet they will be at the polls and voting for romney—they are not assuming anything either ! ! ! ! !