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GOP Senate Dreams May Be Dying as Tammy Baldwin takes Wisconsin Lead
The Republican dream of taking back the Senate could be fading away as Democrat Tammy Baldwin has opened up a three point lead on Tommy Thompson, 48%-45%.
A new Democracy For America poll of Wisconsin found that the presidential race is staying close in the state, with Obama leading Romney 49%-48%, but in the Senate election Tammy Baldwin has taken a three point lead over Tommy Thompson 48%-45. The biggest difference in the Senate contest is in approval ratings. Thompson has a net (-13) rating. Only 40% of those polled have a favorable rating of the Republican, compared to 53% who hold an unfavorable view. Baldwin is also underwater, but she is at a net (-1). Forty four percent of those polled view her favorably, and forty five percent unfavorably.
As with other contests in 2012, voters have pretty much already made up their minds. Ninety percent of Wisconsin respondents are firmly committed to their choice. The remaining ten percent who might change their minds will be aggressively pursued by both campaigns between now and Election Day.
If Baldwin’s lead and Elizabeth Warren’s surge in Massachusetts continue to hold, it is going to be very difficult for Republicans to take control of the Senate. Republicans need to flip four seats, but lackluster candidates and a few of the typical tea party primary implosions in Indiana and Missouri have turned what looked like a potential sure thing into an uphill battle.
What is becoming clearer by the day is that the Democratic Party is drawing its energy from the top. The performances at the Democratic convention seem to have energized the base and brought Democrats back home. As we saw in the recent round of polling in Massachusetts, it is possible to for voters to view their Senate elections through a national prism. Democrats are keenly aware of what Republican senate victories mean for the future even if they are successful in reelecting Obama.
Thanks to his selection of Paul Ryan, Wisconsin is perhaps the only state where Romney’s presence at the top of the ticket isn’t an immediate killer down ballot. Romney is being helped by Ryan, but the sense of growing doom surrounding the Romney campaign is depressing Republicans who were already not enthused about supporting their nominee.
If Republicans fail to flip the Senate they can look back on the nomination of Romney as a symptom of a greater condition. Republicans have been plagued by their unpopularity in Congress and terrible candidate selection for two cycles now. Democrats have again fielded a stronger slate of candidates, and as support for Obama has grown, the Democratic rocket has launched.
Tea Party Senate candidates and establishment Republicans like Thompson are equally struggling. Democrats seem to be taking the message of giving Obama a Congress that he can work with to heart. While Republicans fumble, Democrats are active, engaged, and ready to win.
Given the Republicans attitudes about same sex marriage and women, how fitting would it be for an openly gay candidate to crush the Republican Party’s Senate takeover dreams?
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7 Responses to GOP Senate Dreams May Be Dying as Tammy Baldwin takes Wisconsin Lead
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kim rivera
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 1:51 pm
How fitting? VERY!
D. W. Skinner
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
It’s actually alarming to see how the Republican party has self-destructed… it’s like watching someone committing suicide. Every stupid act that caused their calamity, and the collapse that is most assuredly coming, was a willful choice on their part. Instead of creating a platform telling us what they intended to do, we got one that was filled with who and what they hated. Instead of marching forward with the music of the future, they dialed the radio back several decades to dance completely out of step with the world. When their numbers began dwindling they chose not to embrace others in this melting pot of a nation but to alienate as many as they could: women, gays, lower and middle class, senior citizens and people of Color. Instead of working to clarify their honesty and integrity they tried to sneak laws past the public that would keep them from their one inalienable right as an American.. the right to vote. In doing this they lost respect even in the eyes of their own ranks and became a joke or curseword to the rest of the world. We are watching them slip their head in a noose…in November they will kick their own chair out from beneath themselves.
Tommys_girl
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
So very happy another state is learning who’s important for this country. Elizabeth Warren is doing great in MA also. I agree it appears the RNC and Mitt are self-destructing, however, that worries me. Don’t forget Karl Rove and the Koch Brothers. What can they possibly have up their sleeves to think that all these gaffes aren’t important because they have the election sown up anyway. Vote suppressions? Letting the Dems think they’re winning so they’ll be too complacent? Let’s all keep our fingers crossed.
rodeodance
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Wise folks in WI do not like the anti gay bigotry coming from Tommy’s camp.
GO Tammy GO.
PamT
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 7:16 pm
They have tons of cash and a voter suppression thing going. I’d say we’d better stay aware and alert — wouldn’t be the first election stolen. VOTE!
Ted Peters
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Let’s not forget what happened in Florida almost 8 years ago. Let’s not forget the voter supression efforts by ALEC in almost every Republican controlled state. These desperate losers will lie, steal, cheat and create chaos in order to win by any means necessary. They have nothing but contempt for the average middle class, law abiding citizens of our country. They only really care about the top 1% and the large corporations. Let’s vote all Republicans out of office and make this country a better place for the 99% of us. Yes- I know that includes a lot of ignorant, racist tea party puppets, too, but they will be better off in a Democratic country, even when they become a permanent minority.
I've met them both.
Sep. 17th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Tammy > Tommy