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The Media Wakes Up And Realizes Obama Is The Favorite To Win In 2012
Along with a declining unemployment rate, new polling suggests that President Obama is gaining steam and the media narrative is now shifting towards Obama being favored to win reelection in 2012.
Here is how MSNBC wrote up Obama and their latest NBC/Marist polls:
Turning to the general election in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Barack Obama’s approval rating remains underwater in both states. Forty-three percent of registered voters in Iowa approve of his job performance, which is up one point from October. In New Hampshire, 40 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, up two points.
Yet — with one exception — he leads all GOP challengers in hypothetical match-ups in the Hawkeye State. He’s ahead of Romney by seven points among registered voters (46 percent to 39 percent), Gingrich by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Perry by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent).The one exception: Paul ties him at 42 percent for each. In New Hampshire, Romney leads Obama by three points (46 percent to 43 percent), although that’s down from Romney’s nine-point advantage in October. But Obama leads all other Republicans in the state — Paul (by two points), Gingrich (by 10) and Perry (by 15).
As we inch closer to 2012, it looks the media might be starting to read their own polling. Despite the fact that Obama has been running ahead of the GOP field for most of the year, the mainstream media narrative has been all about how this president is doomed. However, their narrative has consistently not matched the data, which has shown soft support for any of the Republican flavor of the month frontrunners, and sold support for Obama from his base.
The media was trying to set up a storyline to create drama for the 2012 election. The declining unemployment numbers along with Obama’s focus on jobs, and the Republicans relentless obsession with getting rid of the one candidate who could give Obama a race has all combined to make it look like Obama is the favorite to win in 2012.
The reality is that most incumbent presidents should be favored to win reelection. There are recent notables like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, but as a rule of thumb unless a weak personality challenged incumbent is running up against charismatic opposition who connects with the American people on emotional level, the incumbent should be favored. None of the Republican candidates can match Obama on the campaign trail. None of the GOP candidates can match the Obama organization and fundraising.
If the economy continues to improve, Obama will solidify his position as being favored to win reelection, but this won’t stop the media from trying to inject intrigue into the 2012 election. As they learned with the 2008 Democratic primary, elections can boost ratings and ad revenue if they capture the nation’s imagination.
The 2012 election is shaping up to be more like the ugly race of 2004 than the compelling drama of 2008. The electorate is surly, and the race for the White House could end up resembling a back alley brawl than a soaring story of triumph.
The media is beginning to catch on that no matter what Obama’s approval numbers say, voters still like him more than any of the Republican options. A lot can happen before election day, but after looking at the competition, it is easy to see why Obama should be favored to win reelection in 2012.
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35 Responses to The Media Wakes Up And Realizes Obama Is The Favorite To Win In 2012
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sherifffruitfly
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 8:41 pm
a) The anti-Obama “progressives” have also fed the OBAMA IS DOOOOOMED narrative.
b) Just wait ’til Obama actually starts campaigning.
Michael Humphrey
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 9:19 pm
This is going to be sweet.The fact that the economy is improving takes away the narrative of a doomed Presidency and I’m loving it and it’s going to get even better with the December jobs report.Trus’ me.
Middle Molly
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
You are right. Can you imagine in a debate with any of these jokers? He will eat them for lunch, dinner, and breakfast. And together the lot of the Repub contenders have the charisma of a gnat. That’s a good thing. It would be truly scary to have a mean-spirited, right-wing candidate with charisma in this kind of environment.
Middle Molly
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 9:46 pm
I meant to say: Can you imagine Obama in a debate with any of these jokers?
txvoodoo
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 3:09 am
I’m beginning to thing that those in #1 are also in this for the money. If they can construct a narrative of “dems are doomed!” they can solicit for more $ for their PACs. While some of these groups are above board with said PACs, others are distinctly NOT.
faye
Dec. 6th, 2011 at 10:15 am
No one knows how well P.Obama would do because the rep. vote against anything he tries to do. Regardless if it would benefit the country or not. They want to damage the President and they have made a joke out of their party!!
Robert VanMeter
Dec. 9th, 2011 at 11:22 am
I agree….nothing really matters until they go head to head in a debate…this is all irrelevant.
Sally
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Since no one the GOP side has even half a brain, let alone a workable plan for this nation, I’d say Obama will be fine. Think what the unemployment numbers would look like if the GOP had cooperated on ANYTHING in the past three years. Think what our tax structure could be doing to ease the deficit if the GOP had never sidled up to Norquist and actually done their jobs. Think how much better foreign relations could be if the GOP had let Obama close Gitmo that first year. Now think of the strides we will make when the GOP is vote4d out all over this nation, and the progressives can make this nation work and be great again, without bombing anyone else.
Middle Molly
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 9:47 pm
We do have to work to give Obama a more progressive base in Congress. That’s essential.
Ronnie
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 7:40 am
This is so true. Not to mention all the idiots who obviously are paid by the Koch brothers and like kind, who post insane remarks on most news stories threads
AKRNHSNC
Dec. 4th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
My family is split down the middle, half Republican, half Democrat. They are disgusted with the GOP field and with the lack of cooperation on the part of the GOP in congress. My uncle said that the only one of them he would consider voting for if they were able to win the nomination, is Huntsman. He’s also the only one that doesn’t scare the hell out of him as far as his policies and ideology goes, but unless a lot of people suddenly become rational and vote for him, it’s not going to happen.
I can’t wait to see Obama in office for another four years with a Congress that works with him. It would also be great to spit in the face of all those who proclaim that the U.S. won’t even exist if Obama wins again. They keep talking about how our country is becoming a third world country, falling into the trap of socialism, marxism and communism. Yes, all three combined, LOL! Proving they have no idea what they are talking about.
Our President is respected around the world. They will never admit it but the RWNJ’s don’t have to admit it. We know it, other countries know it and if they are too stupid to realize that our current president truly cares about the people in this country, it’s due to their own narrow-minded world view and ignorance.
Don Maison
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 12:11 am
I couldn’t have said it any better! Thank you.
mary rios
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 1:32 am
Just had to say. Completely agree with you.
Daddycool
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 2:35 am
Wooo Hooooo !! Standing ovation !
Ronnie
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 7:58 am
I agree 100%, including the part about Huntsman. Though he has had some pretty stupid things to say lately. Of course he knows he has to say stupid things if he expects to get $ and votes. I go to Europe every year. When Obama took office the world was relieved! We hosted a powerlifting meet in Atlanta this weekend with participants from 6 South American countries and 11 European countries If everyone in the USA was registered and had to vote the republicans would never win an election. They are more registered republican voters and the GOP is attempting to find ways to keep democrats from voting. I have to agree with the late George Carlin. He called George W., Governor Bush because the Texas Governor election was the last election he won.
Pam T
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 1:03 am
Steady and true, Obama has a brain and uses it very well. This is one of the smartest and steadfast Presidents we’ve had in a while. The man knows what he’s doing – despite the GOP demonstrated mindlessness and the non-supportive foolishness of members of his own party. Obama will be back for a second term. Then he can really get down to business turning this country around! Get the riff raff out of the way so he can do his DAMN job!
Paul
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 1:55 am
Indeed. Once the FACTS are hammered relentlessly: private sector job growth 18 or 19 months in a row;, the success of the Auto Industry loan–not bailout; the benefits of credit card reform; the benefits of financial reform; the benefits of the Affordable Care Act; the specific times republicans blocked Jobs bills and other growth measures; that more than 120 republicans derided the Recovery Act, yet claimed credit for it in their home states and districts. And these are just some of the things that need to be exposed.
AKRNHSNC
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 6:25 am
Great FACTS to remember and use when someone starts talking about how our President hasn’t accomplished anything. We know better but it’s up to us to try to inform those we can. Some are too irrational or close-minded to get through to but there are people who are willing to listen. When you look at the list above, it’s easy to see that if Obama had a Congress willing to work with him, unemployment would be far lower than it is now. The GOP has told us repeatedly they don’t care about jobs when their primary reason for doing anything is to withhold a second term in office for President Obama. Screw ‘em, we NEED him for four more years.
Deborah Montesano
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 2:10 am
Duh! Even the Republicans figured this out before the media did. See, “Obama Vs. Whoever”, thepoliticali.blogspot.co....
Daddycool
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 2:33 am
It doesn’t matter if Obama wins unless we and he expose congress to the entire world. 75% of our congress is completely illegitimate! We need to clean house big time!!
AKRNHSNC
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 6:21 am
I couldn’t agree more and that means we have to get the voters to the polls. Whenever I come across anyone who is anti-Obama, I can speak about his accomplishments in a calm, rational manner. The more I do this, the more irrational they tend to become, not everyone but many people I know. They are usually Fox viewers who believe the nonsense handed to them daily. I actually got someone to look at how Fox uses propaganda as in whenever a Republican gets into any type of political or personal trouble, they brand them as a (D) on TV, right next to their picture. When I showed them the proof of this with Mark Sanford, Foley, Vitter, and Ted Stevens, they were disgusted and shocked that they had been lied to. They fell for all of their RW bullshit but now won’t even watch it. She said she’s going to get all her news online from a few different sources and actually research the discrepancies. One down, millions to go!
People went out and knocked on doors, made phone calls, etc. for Obama in ’08. We have to be even more organized this time around. It will be hard at times due to a lot of the RWNJ’s we may come across but the thought of anyone in that current GOP field becoming President is enough to keep me going. Do what you can, even if it’s only for an hour at a time, once a week, it adds up.
Rose Anderson
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 3:37 am
Thus far everybody seems to be judging his re-election chances on his “approval rating”. I disapprove of the way he has performed so far. He’s acting more like a Moderate Republican of olden days than a liberal Democrat. I hope he finally realizes that no matter how much he tries to be friends with the Republicans, they will never like him. He needs to listen to the people who put him in office, and not try to please the Republicans.
Just because a lot of Democrats don’t approve of how he has caved in to the Republicans so far, does not mean we will vote for a Republican in 2012.We will still vote for Obama, and hope he has learned that if the Republicans won’t compromise, he shouldn’t either! I do wish he could get a Democrat majority for the house. The Senate is probably more important. There will probably be at least one Supreme Court Justice appointed in the 4 years after the election, and that must be approved by the Senate. Republicans only need one more to have a solid hold on the Supreme Court. And they are in there for LIFE! That is the most important issue in the 2012 election. Be sure that everybody votes in 2012.
desertflower
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Seriously? does this look like the work of a “moderate Republican” to you? There AREN’T any more “moderate” Republicans…they aren’t even allowed IN the party anymore!
www.thepeoplesview.net/20...
Time to leave that false meme behind.That said, you are right about the Senate and the Supreme Ct.The dive into total fascism wouldn’t take but one more appointee from a Republican to put us there for decades to come.
Rose Anderson
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 11:59 am
If you reread my post you will see I said he appeared like a “Moderate Republican of OLDEN days”. OLDEN refers to a bygone era. Yes, to me (and many others), it DOES look like the actions of a Moderate Republican from the “OLDEN” days. I never thought I would see a Democratic President willing to put the Social Security benefits that working people have paid for all their life up for grabs in exchange for small tax hikes on the wealthy. The greatest danger here is that disenchanted Democrats will stay away from the polls next November just as they did for the 2010 election.
desertflower
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
It’s all about the “leverage”….
www.thepeoplesview.net/20...
Great read in understanding the “miles” beyond he really is.
John
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 11:04 am
There is plenty I disagree with on Obama’s policies but there is also plenty that I agree with. But the attitude to disagreeing with his policies by seeking to support somebody else or to not vote at all rather than pushing Obama to change his policies accomplishes nothing, except maybe to elect somebody who would not be good for this country, which would be any Tea Party Republican. Many people complain about Obama’s policies but what are they doing to get him to change them? We are told that those online petitions accomplish nothing. That is wrong. The XL pipeline was put off for further study because a couple of hundred thousand people signed petitions to the White House. And they heard. That is just one example. There are others. Yes, get out and vote but do more.
Doris Lee
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
We must relect President Obama because there is no other choice,while the Grand Obstructionist Party is obsessed with one goal to make this president fail and by any means necessary we must vote these sobs out who have extracted their brains and sit them beside their heads and don’t care about you or me with their only allegiances to the Koch Bros. & Norquist.
WAKE UP PEOPLE! before it’s too late.
Jason
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Funny that every Obama-supporter on here claims that the right is bought out by the Koch bros. While that is true for 99% of the right, Obama isn’t exactly clean himself. Considering that he top contributor by far in the 2008 election was Goldman Sachs, I think it’s fair to say he is a puppet for corps.
I noticed none of you mentioned Ron Paul. If you really want someone that will address the issues of poverty with real solutions, you’ll vote for Ron Paul. If you do some research and learn about fiat currency, the federal reserve, and how it works, then you will definitely vote for Ron Paul.
Oh, and the “peace-loving” Obama has done quite a bit of the proverbial Republican warmongering. If you actually want to end the wars and global welfare we provide to dictators, then vote for the ONLY candidate of peace, Ron Paul.
Shiva (Moderator)
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
No thanks, we don’t need a class a bigot in the whitehouse. Ron Paul and his son both are dominionists. They have very little regard for the rights of women. Ron Paul says a lot of things but he has very few answers to back up probably would do what he wants to do. His version of rights in the Constitution are not the same rights that you think you have to
Did you forget that Obama’s top contributors by a huge margin were individual people? did you forget that Goldman Sachs did not contribute one dime to Obama, but the Goldman Sachs political action committee made up of the employees of Goldman Sachs did contribute to him?
and did you forget that Goldman Sachs also contributed to John can’t campaign?
You need to do a lot of homework before you post.
A contributor to a campaign is one thing, the Koch brothers are feeding money to all types of groups that are conservative including the tea party. You might want to read up on that as well.
And Goldman Sachs was not the top contributor. the University of California was
desertflower
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Thank you!
Shiva (Moderator)
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 6:58 pm
I hate these guys that show up and only have talking points without ever reading up on what they are talking about
Know what I mean vern?
Pete
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
Tut Tut Shiva. Ron Paul is the only politician in the race not bought by any ruling class. He is not interested in feminism no, but respects each individual as under the USA’s real constitution, not the joke interpretations of today’s politicians. Remember Obama will soon be responsible for Americans being able to be arrested and held without trial by the military in their own country. Obama gave the Banks billions of our dollars, and nobody knows what happened to it. More war not less.. Your own personal agenda is blinding your common sense.
Shiva (Moderator)
Dec. 6th, 2011 at 12:10 am
Actually Obama has said he intends on vetoing that bill.
TARP was a Bush deal. Get your history straight
You wouldn’t like life under Ron Paul at all. After all, he also thinks you have the right to a totally polluted earth, a very unsafe workplace among other things.
Joan
Dec. 5th, 2011 at 6:38 pm
I agree with all of the above comments, I think the GOP is really trying to steal the election though, with all of the voter suppression, the redistricting to favor the GOP, and the loads of cash coming to the republicans thanks to Citizens United. This is my worry, Obama would win no problem if it was a fair election. I guess we all have to work really hard!
Tanisha Ajokatcher
Dec. 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
wow this is sad and Obama is trying to help the people and all odds are against him…keep pushing Mr President