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2012 Fades Away From the GOP As Obama’s Approval Rating Rises to 55%
A new CNN/ Opinion Research poll released today delivered more good news for President Barack Obama, and another blow to the quickly fading White House hopes of the Republican Party in 2012. Obama’s job approval has risen to 55% which is up 7 points over the past month, while his disapproval rating has fallen 4 points during the same time period. Obama is starting to look like a two term president.
According to the poll, not only has Obama’s overall job approval rating improved, but the President is now over 50% approval with both men (53%), and women (56%). Obama still struggles with white people (45% approval), but he remains very popular with non-whites (79%). Obama has always remained popular with those under 35, but now middle aged Americans are returning to the President. Those age 35-49 support Obama 53%-46%. Those age 50-64 support Obama 51%-48%. Obama still struggles with seniors, who gave the President a 53% disapproval rating, but this is the age group that disapproved of Obama.
The generational divide that shaped the 2008 election is still alive and well in 2011. Those under age 50 overwhelmingly approved of President Obama, 60%-39%, but those over age 50 were split over Obama 49%-50%. Obama does well with both those making over and under $50,000 a year. Proof that his middle class message is working can be found in the fact that those making less than $50,000 approve of Obama 58%-41%. Those making more than $50,000 support Obama, 52%-48%. Obama has a 52% approval rating among those who didn’t attend college, and a 57% approval rating with those who did.
Obama’s approval rating remains high with Democrats (87%), low with Republicans (19%), but has rebounded with Independents to 54%. All Republican hope for 2012 has rested on Independents leaving Obama, if Independent support for Obama continues to grow, then Republicans will have little chance in 2012. Moderates’ support for Obama continues to grow, as they approve of Obama’s job performance by an almost 2-1 margin, 65%-34%.
President Obama’s job approval rating is at 50% or higher in every region of the country including the Republican stronghold of the South. Not surprisingly, Obama is still more popular in the cities (63%) and the suburbs (55%) than he is in rural America (46%), but part of the Republican 2012 strategy hinges on bringing suburban voters to the GOP. If the suburbs go Obama in 2012, the nation will follow suit.
No modern era president has ever lost their bid for a second term when their job approval rating was over 50%. With each week, Obama is gaining momentum. The President has been on the upswing since the Republican victories in the 2010 midterms. Partially due to the fact that when Republicans were the minority party, they were free to sit back and take shots at the White House and the Democrats every single day, because there were no consequences, but now that their butts are on the line too, and they need Democratic support to get anything passed into law, they can’t afford to behave like they used to.
With the Republican Party being moved more to the right by the GOP fringes, Obama’s moderate message has been left unchallenged. Guess what? Americans like presidents who govern from the middle. The reality is that if the Republican nominee does not get a majority of the suburban and Independent support in 2012, they will be crushed by Obama. This election could turn into an uneventful romp to a second term for President Obama. 2012 may start to fade fast, if Republicans can’t quickly come up to a counter message that appeals to middle. If they keep moving to the right, the GOP might as well just start planning for 2014, because 2012 will belong to Barack Obama.
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15 Responses to 2012 Fades Away From the GOP As Obama’s Approval Rating Rises to 55%
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Nancy
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Finally some good news. I’m so sick of the Sarah Palin blogs, which I’m aware are very important, but this is great! Thank you for sharing the good news.
Private note, I hope you’re feeling better ..
PEACE!
Shiva (Moderator)
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
But but, he is taking my medicare isnt he?
Reynardine
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
I dearly hope this remains so, but I’m worried. “Hooray! We’ve left that mean old Count behind us!” said Jonathan and Mina Harker, as they skipped down the street hand in hand. Meanwhile, off the Yorkshire Coast…
Anne
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 10:17 pm
This is great news, but I’m cautiously optimistic at this point. I don’t even want to contemplate a Republican presidency, especially with the candidates they currently have. Hopefully, the economy will improve, which would do even more to lessen that likelihood.
Ignia
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Not likely that. With the republicans in charge of the house (and thus the Budget for things like the stimulus and whatnot), they are well aware that a better economy would be politically beneficial to the President, while at the moment a poor economy is politically beneficial to them.
Do you honestly think that the GOP is going to work in the best interests of the people now, when they haven’t for so many years, especially when something like this benefits them directly?
Anne
Jan. 24th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
Of course, I don’t. But one thing is certain. They do not have the votes to override presidential vetoes in either the Senate or the House, and I hope the president exercises this tool as often as possible to thwart some of their craziness. It’s quite funny to see the infighting between the establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers in Congress. I don’t underestimate their capacity to do great damage, but it is heartening to know that they are being confronted with reality about their decision to repeal health care reform, for example. No, I don’t see them trying to help anyone, and I believe that will result in their Waterloo. They always overplay their hand.
Tony
Jan. 25th, 2011 at 1:44 am
Ingia, I keep hearing that about how a high jobless number working against the President traditionally and how the Republicans will work to ensure those jobless numbers don’t improve. That tactic worked relatively well this last round of elections, with their obstructionist tactics. Why should they (the Republicans) be allowed to get away with that again? Should the Republicans undermine the economic welfare of this nation for political gain, Democrats need to make everybody aware of that and the people should make the Republicans suffer the consequence by voting them out. I don’t understand why the President should be made to pay for that. These numbers tell me that the people are starting to get it. They’re starting to see whose really on our side.
Mike Janus
Jan. 25th, 2011 at 8:45 am
As I told my worried Democratic friends and my smug Republican friends; “He’s playing chess, they are playing checkers.” Nevertheless, we should not get complacent.
majii
Jan. 25th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
I think we may see some movement among the seniors later this year, too, as they begin reaping the benefits in the ACA. The donut hole is in the process of being filled, and they can now get free preventative checkups and free end of life counseling.
Iolanthe
Jan. 26th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Uh oh. We should keep this a secret. If it gets out, the Koch Brothers and the Big Money will double down on the Nonsense, the manufactured conspiracies, the revisionist history, and the outright hate-and-fear talk.
(BTW, I believe that Rush and Glenn get to have a platform, sure, and Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes get to have their overwrought all-propaganda-all-the-time network. But I miss the Fairness Doctrine. It would be great to hear other responsible Center-Left voices besides Jon Stewart.)
Bring back the Fairness Doctrine!
Zack
Jan. 26th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
In all honesty shouldn’t that read 2016? If President Obama gets re-elected in 2012 by the margins currently predicted I doubt they’ll have little success with other races, or even much influence in the ones they manage to win.
Rhonda
Jan. 26th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
My biggest concern is that regardless of what media output you keep track of, psychology tells us that people are easily controlled by fear, and the promise of being able to alleviate whatever fears you have. When W ran for his second term, he promised EVERYONE, EVERYTHING they wanted to hear. A rational person would step back and take a moment to think, “It’s impossible to give everyone everything they lobby for. It simply cannot be done. You will always please one and piss of another. Politics are ALWAYS a give and take.” Our nation is in a crisis and thousands are jobless, homeless, and going hungry every day, not in a third world country, but HERE on OUR soil. I’d say as a whole, we are VERY afraid. Anyone who’s honest and observant will readily admit that a “good politician” is merely a “good orator”. Anyone who is trained to manipulate the masses with non-verbal communication, as well as the words they speak is a shoe-in. The question that will determine who holds the next presidential term isn’t who will be the better puppet, but who will succeed at utilizing mass media to create mass fear, and promise mass solutions… and make it believable. Remember, as cliche as it may seem, “What is right isn’t always popular, yet what is popular isn’t always right.” (And that applies to ALL parties involved.)
Billy Graham
Feb. 5th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
I am sooo glad I live in Canada. 11 yrs. ago I had throat cancer, I am now cancer free. I spent 3 weeks in hospital and the cancer was eradicated by massive doses of Radiation and IT DIDN’T COST ME A DIME. My brother’s son, who is a diabetic got a sore on the bottom of his foot which resulted in the amputation of his big toe and part of his foot. He came close to losing his life but is now healed. The procedure cost over $200,000. It didn’t cost him a dime. I am puzzeled as to why the US seems to think that socialized programs spell Socialism. I can assure you that Canada is completely satisfied with our social programs and that your President Obama is no way near to being a Socialist. In my oppinion the ‘Tea party’ has shown themselves to be arrogant, short sighted and only interested in getting power. They refuse to co-orporate with President Obama on any front. I certainly don’t see that attitude as putting their Country first. I have two brothers in the US and my sister spends most of the winter there. As a Canadian, I love America and am interested in her welfare. Billy G.
Shiva (Moderator)
Feb. 5th, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Republicans think that the only good death is death fighting muslims. If you die of something else you are on your own.