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Romney’s Post Debate Bounce Evaporates as Obama Returns to Leading by 5
Mitt Romney may have gotten one of the shortest post-debate bounces in history as swing state and national polls reveal Obama in the lead.
The big confusion today has been over the Gallup daily tracking poll. On Monday morning, the Gallup daily tracking poll had the race tied at 47%-47%, but by Monday afternoon, the poll was updated to show President Obama leading 50%-45%.
So, what gives?
It turns out that Gallup broke with their own tradition, and changed their methodology. Instead of using a 7 day rolling average, they compared two sets of three day averages. Monday afternoon’s update included Saturday and Sunday polling. When they returned to the 7 day average, and included polling after the new jobs numbers were released, President Obama returned to a 50%-45% lead.
More data is needed, but it seems that Mitt Romney got roughly a one day bounce from the debate. The combination of Romney being called out across all media for his barrage of lies along with the vastly improved unemployment rate worked together to virtually neutralize any bounce that Romney had gained from Wednesday night.
The latest swing state polls are coming in, and it looks like the Romney bounce is also fading at the state level. The latest polling of Colorado shows Obama leading Romney 47%-43%, and in Virginia, the president leads 50%-47%. Even conservative pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa. Rasmussen polls are frequently cited by conservatives and Fox News, but they have been found to have a 4 point bias towards Republicans. So when Rasmussen claims Obama is up by one (Colorado) or two (Iowa) the potential Obama lead could be closer to 5 or 6 points.
This election did get closer after the debate, mostly because Republicans have been energized by Romney’s debate performance, but recent polling suggests that the new jobs/unemployment numbers crushed any potential for the results of the first debate to be a game changer.
The initial panic by Democrats and claims of momentum by Republicans after the first debate were both premature. The dynamics of this presidential election remain in about the same place where they have been for months. Obama is leading, but it is competitive.
Romney didn’t score a debate knockout, and if this election stays on its established trajectory, President Obama will be in position to win a second term.
However, the winner of this election will likely be determined by which campaign is more successful in turning out their supporters to vote.
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26 Responses to Romney’s Post Debate Bounce Evaporates as Obama Returns to Leading by 5
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Rob Galgano
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Pew Poll out today shows Romney +4 post-debate.
mjh
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Well, what is it the rightwingnuts keep saying: “polls don’t matter; the only poll that counts is on Election Day?”
Funny how they say that — until they find a poll that favors them . . .
.
memekiller
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:51 pm
FYI that poll reflects likeliest to vote on Nov. 6.
Lee in Iowa
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 11:12 am
I’m reading the Pew is from a Nazi background? and funded by a slew of right-wing corporations and CEOs? With their numbers so far off the norms of other polls, I think they are full of it!
Jonathan Burton
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 10:02 pm
This Wrongney bounce was a planned move by the Dems. We need to keep as much C-PAC money in the presidential race and out of the congressional races as we can. This is the whole shebang strategy. We all know what ornery assholes the GOP have become, and how soundly kicking their asses out of the House and Senate seats has to happen for the good of the nation. This poll bounce was conceded by Obama and his campaign for a good reason. Obama and his campaign managers are playing some hardcore voodoo hardball and know exactly what inning they are in, what the score is, and how they are going to soundly whip their proverbial asses. The GOP are running out of people to buy off with religious bigotry, racism, lies, money, and propaganda. The GOP are such ignorant fools in their little echo chamber. They do not see Obama and the non-right wing press essentially toying with Mitt Romney by giving him his little debate bounce and all the hype that comes with it and then whoops! Where did it go? HA HA HA HA HA!
I know what the dems are up to and I say “More power to you!!” They need to win no matter what, and I hate to say it but play dirty for once. The GOP does it every time. They do not mind stooping to the lowest common denominator. Tell you what, snuff the GOP out by using the own game against them (they will go freaking ape shit) and then set a precedent to never abide by these underhanded and immoral tactics again, pointing out how truly immoral it is to do politically what the GOP has been getting away with for decades. After that, we can finally put up Bush and Cheney for their deplorable war crimes. Don’t think that still might not ever happen.
Sig
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
If you believe this, I have some ocean front property in Yuma for sale.
Anomaly100
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:15 pm
I thought we were doomed. I was preparing for our new Kolob Overlords.
buckeyewill
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
But,but….Pew has Romney up by 4.
It will melt like ice cream.
Goddess1871
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
But..but indeed! NPR was dying to put this as the lead story this afternoon during some of the 30 minute updates.
MsMoneypenny
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 5:51 pm
PEW is skewed to favor Republicans. As are Rasmussen and a couple others. JUST remember to vote and get everyone you know to vote. Obama landslide, baby!
Jonathan Burton
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
How many cell phones are polled?
Oh yeah and I cannot remember the last time I answered my phone when a strange long distance (or worse “unlisted”) number appeared. Not gonna happen. I guess you missed my opinion. I guess these new-fangled “cell phone” people who are increasingly doing away with their parent’s land-lines are not that important in polling. I mean, how many of them could there be? Surely not enough to make any difference at the polls. How many adult people with cell phones vote anyway?
ltd1974MBA
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 6:03 pm
PEW weighted their RV 5% more GOP & GOP according to the weighting is the largest party in America, jumping 8% since July, 5% since Sept
Kirk
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Republicans are adding pollsters like “We ask America” to further skew poll results. Huffpo, since being bought by AOL, is leaning further right all the time, recently adding a birther-lead “Citizens United” pollster – (Wenzel Strategies (R-Citizens United).
They actually have Romney up by +1 in Ohio, while the Columbus dispatch has Obama +10.
Goddess1871
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Somebody better tell NPR. They were absolutely GIDDY this afternoon.
rewinn
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
The important thing is for everyone to vote.
Although how anyone can vote for Romney is a mystery, since no-one knows what he stands for. He’s stood for EVERYTHING at one time or another.
wroxman
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Precisely, since Mitt stood for everything, that means he supports every’s one agenda, one time or another. So people support him, because Mitt tell people what they want to hear. He would make a president for the age.
Marco
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 8:19 pm
The ONLY poll that matters is the one being conducted on November 6th. PERIOD! If you want to keep unfit Mitt and Lyon’ Ryan out if the White House (like I do), then contribute, volunteer and VOTE. Do you know someone who is “undecided”? Help them to “decide.” Do know someone who needs help getting to the poll on November 6th? Give them a helping hand! Be involved and fight like we’re the underdog! ‘Cause we are.
These pre-election polls are merely scalliwag ear dressing. Ignor them! Fight like your life depends upon Mr. Obama winning. Because it does!
labman57
Oct. 8th, 2012 at 11:17 pm
The polls tend to tighten over time … and then Romney and Ryan once again open their mouths and insert both feet, or the voters discover the extent and magnitude of their blatant lies, and the majority of the American electorate remembers why it feels alienated by the Republican Party and why it becomes nauseous at the thought of these two self-serving clowns running the nation.
stormskies
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 10:33 am
This is such fucking nonsense. The fact is the Pew Poll totally changed their methodology to get that result. If they had used their previous methodology that showed Obama with that big lead it would still show that big lead.
They changed their methodology: Oddly, the candidate preferences for the big party ID groupings haven’t changed that much, and sure enough, the RV sample (aside from being half the size of September’s) has a significantly higher percentage of Republicans (34%) than September’s (31%), and an even larger reduction in the percentage of Democrats (37% to 31%) This could reflect a sampling error in either month or an actual shift in party ID.
This is what the corporate media does. They then announce these polls without telling their viewers about the methodology used to arrive at the results. This is fucking intentional in order to make people ‘believe’ something that just isn’t true.
To me this being journalistic criminals. So we end up with the TV news anchors like Diane Sawyer opening her propaganda show up with “Obama is under great pressure, and struggling”……blah, blah, quack, quack ..
And while all this is going on of course the Gallup poll, whose methodology is consistent, has Obama up by five.
Darrell West
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 11:20 am
Don’t let the Media poll Scare you let your voice be heard.
Tim
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Mitt opened his mouth again after the debate and everyone remembered that this guy is not ready for prime time.
A corporate raider that wants war and endless spending is not in America interest.
Letel Prek
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
After all the dust is settle, here we are again back to where the race should be. Romney always make loud empty noise and then he has to be put in his place. Cheaters never prosper, Mr Romney. You lie, you deceive, you hide, and worst or all you are clueless as to how this great country can be made better. More tax cuts for the rich, more defence spending that is unwarranted and ill advised, tax increased for the middle class, more cuts social services proposed by the Ryan budget and the American people do not know where you really stand on major issues all because you have taken so many positions on all major issues from gun cotrol, to the wars, to abortion and healthcare. My queston to Romney is the most familiar one of the times. Where do you stand on major issues? If you cannot pic a positon and stick to it, even thought it may be too late to late to turn back now. Stand up for what you believe, be the man your family expect you to be. How can Romney claim that he has five(5)boys who tried to repeat thingsand expect him to believe them after sometime, and now he is trying to perform the same tricks and continueous live and expect the American people to believe him. Mr Romney a lie is a lie and you can’t change that.
Howard Levine
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Romney’s debate platform in other words… First off, forget everything I said before. Now ladies and Gentleman gather round, I want to show you something that will change your life. One spoonful of this magic elixir will put a new car in every driveway and a turkey on every table.
It will cure all your ailments and woes.
Pour it on your street, the pavement will turn to gold!
Yes that’s right, Romney Juice is here and it’s here to stay. it will bend your knees and strobe your lobes.
“What’s in it?” someone shouts from the audience.
“Never mind son, trust me, it will work. You ask too many questions,” Romney replies with a sly smile and a wink.
“But how does it work?” the man persists.
“It works just fine!” smiles Romney with a Cheshire cat grin.
And here is the real clincher, it will cost you nothing upfront, I’m going to pay you to take it!
“Wow, sounds too good to be true,” a lady quips.
“Believe me it is.” says a retired gentleman from Texas by the name of George. I tried it for 8 years, now he won’t even talk to me.
robert chapman
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 8:09 pm
The poll numbers indicate there is more volatility in public opinion now than there had been during the summer.
This increased volatility could have any number of sources.
Perhaps people who had previously not responded to pollsters are starting to respond and their views are different than those who responded during the summer.
Perhaps Romeny got a bounce.
But one must bear in mind that each poll is a snapshot of the moment.
Just as the poll numbers moved last week, so they can move again this week and next week.
Romney now has the expectations game working against him.
Those who were energized by his performance in the 10/3 debate may well have their enthusiasm squelched as continuing exposure to the “dynamic, new” Mitt becomes ordinary.
Romney’s electoral college map remains very small, so the importance to his campaign of maintaining this level of enthusiasm is vital.
Realistically, the liklihood of Team Romney being able to keep this buzz going for another 3 1/2 weeks is minimal.
Romney appears to have peaked in public opinion too soon.
Roger Sund
Oct. 9th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
the only thing people will remember about the debate is Romneys five kids are liars (I wonder where they learned that from) and he wants to end big bird in 1969 Mr Rogers went before the senate and convinced LBJ to let PBS have the money it is availible to watch on you tube
Gary Vaughn
Oct. 10th, 2012 at 9:15 am
I really have a problem with the latest polls. Not that I am like a Fox pundit or anything but, The debate wouldn’t have erased the 25% lead with women. I mean womens issues never came up.