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New Polls Reveal That Sarah Palin Is Mitt Romney’s Bachmann Buster
According to the latest PPP poll Michele Bachmann is on a roll, but all that could change if Sarah Palin enters the race.
PPP polled Republicans in both Oregon and Montana, and in both states Michele Bachmann has surged to lead over frontrunner Mitt Romney, as long as Sarah Palin does not enter the race. If Palin doesn’t run Bachmann leads Romney 29%-28% followed by Ron Paul (10%), Newt Gingrich (9%), Herman Cain (7%), Tim Pawlenty (6%), and Jon Huntsman (2%).
Should Palin enter the race, she and Bachmann would split the non-Romney vote. With Palin in, Romney leads Bachmann, 28%-18%. Sarah Palin would be third at 16%. Ron Paul would be fourth at 9% followed by Cain (8%), and Gingrich and Pawlenty (6% each). Palin cuts into Bachmann’s lead with very conservative voters. Without Palin, this group goes 37%-26% for Bachmann over Romney. Bachmann margin over Romney is sliced to virtually nothing with Sarah Palin in the contest, 24%-22%.
If Sarah Palin is a candidate in Montana, the GOP primary becomes a three way race. Palin leads Bachmann 20%-18%, with Mitt Romney third at 17%. None of the other GOP contenders break 10%. In a two way contest without Palin, Bachmann leads Romney 25%-22%. Newt Gingrich would be third with 11%. Bachmann has firmly entrenched herself as a co-frontrunner in Oregon where she has matched Mitt Romney’s 54% favorable rating with Republicans. However, both Romney and Bachmann aren’t as popular as Palin in the state. Sarah Palin leads the field with a 67% favorable rating among Republicans.
In Montana, Sarah Palin blows out her competition in terms of popularity. She carried a 72% favorable rating with the state’s Republicans. Michele Bachmann was second with a 50% favorable rating, and Mitt Romney was third with a 47% favorable rating.
Sarah Palin may not be able to win the Republican nomination, and if she enters the race Michele Bachmann won’t either. The two women have been endlessly compared to one another by pundits this year, but at least in Oregon and Montana, they are fighting for the support of the same voters.
If Palin does enter the race, she will fragment Michele Bachmann’s base of support and if this happens, Mitt Romney is the clear winner. Think of the contest like a NASCAR race. As Bachmann and Palin get tied up in a battle for second, frontrunner Mitt Romney would be extending his lead on the rest of the field.
Just as Bachmann’s entry into the race has stopped Herman Cain’s momentum, a Sarah Palin candidacy would probably grind Michele Bachmann’s to a halt. What Sarah Palin’s fans don’t want to admit is that many of their fellow Palin supporters are already throwing their support behind Bachmann. If Sarah Palin is serious about running she had best get into the field soon, or most of her would be support will belong to Michele Bachmann.
Both women would be dueling it out for the same supporters. (It would be interesting to see how many of these same Republicans supported Mike Huckabee in 2008. My guess is that the voters that they would be fighting over are the Huckabee supporters). Should they both be in the race they will be trying to occupy the same political turf, and there aren’t enough votes to go around for both of them.
Michele Bachmann could make Sarah Palin so 2008. If Palin wants to keep her brand, her relevancy, and her license to print money based on her name, she had better get into the 2012 race.
Bachmann looks like the legit Romney alternative for Republicans. The only thing that could stop her from possibly beating Romney is Sarah Palin’s endless need for attention and limelight pushing her into the 2012 GOP race to do nothing more than make sure that Michele Bachmann doesn’t win.
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21 Responses to New Polls Reveal That Sarah Palin Is Mitt Romney’s Bachmann Buster
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Shiva (Moderator)
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
I totally agree that if Sarah is going to run she has to get in right away. I also think that she should not be involved in any polls as long as she is not in.
The scary part is I think Ed Rollins will settle Michelle Bachmann down and we will not know what we are getting as long as he keeps her calm. However I think there is enough dirt on her to be brought up during the campaign to keep her from winning.
If the media does its job like I know that it will not, she will be exposed under questioning. She is totally, like Sarah Palin, totally incapable of answering a question with an answer that possibly makes sense.
the rest of the field also has a chance to catch up somewhat. The bottom feeders will never be top leaders but they may take more votes away from the top that is accounted for
Jason Easley
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
So, you aren’t all that impressed with Mitt Romney?
Shiva (Moderator)
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Not really, I would prefer him over the two women. There really isnt a candidate from the GOP I like. Mitt might be better for the US than any of them I think
Rob Cypher
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Ed Rollins must be feeding her small amounts of Valium before every interview – it’s the only way I can figure out how she’s not going batshit crazy in front of a camera like she used to do before he joined her team.
Jason Easley
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
She has really reinvented herself, but it has been easy. She hasn’t faced any tough question or negative ads against her yet. Romney is going to have to stop acting entitled to the nomination, and come after her.
Rob Cypher
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
I like how the GOP contest is compared to a NASCAR race. Very apt comparison.
AFM
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
All I can see is the country deserves better. I think the only grownup in the group is Huntsman. He’ll never get the go. He is resonable. They are looking for batshit crazy.
Moongal6
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:33 pm
This scenario sounds like a ‘win win’ for Mitt.
If the citizen from Alaska/Arizona does throw her wig in the ring, it will knock the knucklehead from MN down.
The good news for Mitt is that I heard a year ago that the Romney camp has the factual goods on the citizen, regarding the maternity of her “last” child, and he’s not afraid to use that information.
Dragonpuff
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Sarah has to decide if running will net her more money later. If she runs we will all get to sit back and watch the implosion of the GOP. I hate to say it, but they deserve it.
Sally
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 4:50 pm
The GOP has a boatload of crap on Palin that they sat on hoping she could pull McCain along anyway. Now tha t she is a liability, and has proven that she is no team player, that information will come swirling out as soon as she announces..(somehow the release will be blamed on the Democrats so the GOP can hang onto her dweebs and their cash.) Meanwhile, Bachmann’s husband has enough baggage to send her home. Face it, the GOP has nobody who can challenge the President. They are going to have to up the fear on Fox, and make up some creepy stories about relatives in Africa. And that will happen too.
Boscoe
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 5:12 pm
I’m actually finding this whole “will she. won’t she” situation to be quite fun. Because in the end, the answer to that question depends upon, and will reveal once and for all, who the REAL Sarah Palin is.
There’s the $arah we know and love; the thin-skinned quitter/grifter who loves her PAC/Slush fund and Fox paycheck too much to run and who will tease every last dollar out of her fans before admitting she’s not running.
Then there’s the Sarah that the C4Peers want to believe in; the hard working, rugged, family values frontierswoman and Real American. This Sarah is merely playing out some kind of “brilliant strategy” to let the field shake itself out before delivering her announcement at the precise moment it will wreak maximum havok on her opponents.
Then there’s the manipulative, emotionally unstable narcissist Sarah who believes she was mantled by God to be a modern Queen Esther and lead America into some kind of Dominionist theocracy. This Sarah thinks the rules do not apply to her and she can announce whenever the hell she pleases and it will not affect her. My guess is that if this is the real Sarah, she’ll announce on the 4th of July, because heaven forbid people celebrate their country instead of HER. LOL
My guess is that both versions of Sarah who WILL announce, will avoid unscripted interviews and debates where the questions are not provided in advance… we’ll see the first campaign waged almost entirely on Twitter and Facebook. And it will backfire horribly. And certain comedic/satirical tv shows will enjoy a run of material that will never be matched.
rm
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Thumbs Down For Martin Bashir’s Scathing Preview Of Sarah Palin’s Documentary
www.mediaite.com/tv/thumb...
“[This movie is] apparently an attempt to promote Sarah Palin’s values. But I have to ask, what are those values? Walk out of public office halfway through your allocated term. Have a child who becomes pregnant as an eighteen-year-old. And then use every possible opportunity to make money out of your celebrity. Those are her values aren’t they?”
OUCH!
Shiva (Moderator)
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Why thumbs down? He is obviously right. She is doing everything possible to make money and keep her face in the news. And the movie is also obviously full of BS
jcinco
Jun. 29th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
I’ve seen this some comment on several sites. I don’t know if it’s spam or a troll or what…
Shiva (Moderator)
Jun. 29th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Its an australian
cathy
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 8:33 pm
Kudos to Martin Bashir! He is the first reporter to speak his mind about SP–it is about time someone did!
Shiva (Moderator)
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
I like Martin Bashir. He doesnt seem to pull punches on anyone
Java
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
This is a real live Soap Opera..I love it..If something happens that Sarah doesn’t get HER WAY…I think she will blow and Rat Out all the Dirty Politicians…Just you wait..It will be like July 4th x a million explosions….he he he
Ingarose
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Let me throw my hat into the ring (who will be the GOP candidate) as well.
Since there are so many speculations here and in the news, I will just use my gut feeling (after all with so many predictions I just may score a few points).
Mitt Romney cannot win. He is the establishment, white, good looking guy and he is a Mormon. The rabid far right and the tea baggers will see that he does not win the nomination. Not only that, the general public, who is not interested in politics want excitement, a la reality shows, mud fights like in Jersey shore. Mitt would never do.
Forget about Pawlenty, Santorum, Newt etc. Enter Bachmann, Cain and Palin. Those are the characters the media likes because of ratings. The whole process of electing a president has become a reality show, where the one with the best acting and good looks could just win (at least the republican nomination).
I am definitely not counting Palin out. If she would not run she would not make any more money. Now even her daughter is counting on her to stay in, so they all can benefit. Bristol said that her mom would make an awesome president.
In the end I do not know what the GOP will do, but do not underestimate them. Obama is not a shoe in.
Why not forget the whole ‘president thing’ all together and elect a few real adult wise men to steer, advise and lead our country and the world?
Debra
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
There is NO doubt in my mind that Willard is strapping on his magic underwear every single night & praying that Scarah jumps in the race. I’m not really sure, as we sit here in the middle of 2011, why early polls of the batshitcrazy crowds garner so much credibility from the media BUT nonetheless thats where we seem to be.
Floyd M. Orr
Jun. 28th, 2011 at 11:34 pm
This is an excellent analysis, Mr. Easley, and some of these comments are quite poignant in describing the current madness. The only element left out of the scenario is Rick Perry. Governor Goodhair may rush in like Mighty Mouse to save the day. He is not only as loony as the rest of them, but he is of the masculine persuasion, is a Methodist, and has better hair than Donald Trump!