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Terror Grips the GOP As Obama Foresees Texas as a Battleground State
During a speech in San Antonio, President Obama said something that will give Republicans nightmares. Obama told the crowd that someday Texas will be a battleground state.
Here is the video:
Obama was talking about the flood of campaign ads drowning voters in swing states, when he said, “Let me just say this, in the next four months, you know, you guys won’t see them because you’re not considered one of the battleground states, although that’s going to be changing soon.”
President Obama wasn’t just dishing out red meat to the audience. Texas is the most reliable and largest Red State in the Republican column, but a rising Hispanic population along with the Republican Party’s alienation of Latino voters on the immigration issue is opening the door for Democrats in the state.
Consider that back in 2000, home state governor George W. Bush beat Al Gore 59%-38% in the state. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry, 61%-38%, but in 2008 Obama gained 44% of the Texas vote, and the Republican margin of victory shrunk from 23 points to 11.
What happened?
In 2007, Senate Republicans killed George W. Bush’s bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform bill. This was a watershed moment as the far right’s hardline anti-immigrant stance effectively became the Republican Party’s official position on the issue. Since this time, Republicans have gone out of their way to criminalize the Latino population.
In 2004, Latino friendly Bush got half of the Texas Latino vote. By 2008, that number had dropped to 35%. The deficit is still too big for Obama to overcome in 2012, but the president does have a 65% approval rating with Latino voters nationally, and he currently leads Romney 66%-26% with these voters.
Could Obama close to within single digits of Romney in Texas? It’s possible, but the problem for Republicans is demographics. Texas is currently 37% Latino, but in less than 20 years a majority of the state’s population will be Latino.
Texas is changing and if Republicans keep alienating Latino voters with discriminatory policy proposals and Latino bashing, the Lone Star State will someday switch from red to blue.
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13 Responses to Terror Grips the GOP As Obama Foresees Texas as a Battleground State
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Steve Myers
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Some good points. But this isn’t just about Hispanics in Texas. There are some actual Democrats too, with deep roots there. People who voted for Ann Richards, for example. The Texas Republican Party just might be the worst case of over-reach since Goldwater. Look at their Platform. They came out against “higher order thinking skills.” Do they really think that a ‘winning’ argument?
Rick Shreiner
Jul. 18th, 2012 at 7:23 pm
I hate to be the one to tell you, but in Texas, it is .. ..
Jonathan Burton
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 5:33 pm
That is a LONG way off. The GOP own Texas nuff sed. I have lived in this forsaken state for all of my life and I do not see the dumb, racist hicks that live in most counties of this state changing their minds about the Dems anytime soon.
Texas used to be a blue state until LBJ signed the civil rights act into law. Ever since then racism and fundamentalist baptist bigotry has ruled our dysfunctional state and determined who runs it (the fucking GOP that’s who). The last time I crossed the border into Texas I flipped off the “Welcome to Texas” sign. I am moving next year to New Mexico, and I assure you that my family and I will be VERY happy to leave. The saddest part of all of this is that after I leave there will still be millions of Americans living in Tex-ass that have to deal with the moronic “destroy everything that matters as fast as we can for profit” GOP running er I mean ruining the lives of those who aren’t already filthy rich.
Johnee
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Man, I feel your pain. Thankfully, I live in Austin which is a blue island of sanity in a sea of fundie red.
Rick Shreiner
Jul. 18th, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Hope things go better for you and your family in New Mexico .. ..
I lived 10 years in Texas, and believe me when I say that moving to Sweden was the best thing I have ever done.
Left that “low-effort thinking” behind me, and never looked back.
Rmuse
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Jonathan – I share your sentiments about Texas and warmly invite you to head West…all the way to the Pacific.
karen Stevens
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Jonathan, welcome to New Mexico! It is a blue state but we welcome more liberals to keep it blue!
MarieD
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
I am native Texan and have lived here for over 50 years. I have never been more embarrassed or more ashamed to be from such a repressive, backwards, redneck state led by such idiots like Rick Perry and others. As soon as my parents are gone, I plan to relocate to a state that truly is representative of the diversity that makes our nation great.
Johnee
Jul. 18th, 2012 at 12:48 am
Yeah. The worst health care and they teach our kids “intelligent design” in science class. Rick Perry is a joke… and it doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that history will paint these wingnuts for the fools that they are.
Chuck
Jul. 17th, 2012 at 9:53 pm
I am originally from San Antonio TX but moved to the Dallas area in 1970. I am so sick of all these Repugnuts it’s really hard to maintain any sense of being. I pray that before I die I see our state turn Blue again but I don’t know if I can hang on that much longer. I am sick and tired of my VOTE not counting. We need to get back to the majority rules instead of the College Electorial.
Robb
Jul. 18th, 2012 at 1:45 am
I’ve only been to Texas once, back in the 90′s. Saw this truck with a bumper sticker that had a confederate flag and read “It’s a white thing and you wouldn’t understand”. I have to say, even though our state is broke, I love living in California.
Steven
Jul. 18th, 2012 at 11:33 am
The 2010 elections were a very un-promising regression back towards the red state again. I’m hoping we can make a couple more steps forward this time, but seeing as I’m the only Dem in the store, I’m not holding out too much hope.
Robert Chapman
Jul. 19th, 2012 at 11:27 am
It is interesting to note, as a previous commentor did, that Texas was a reliably blue state until LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act and changed the state’s partisan orientation tout suite.
Texas is going to undergo the same sort of transformation now.
Without a majority everyone is part of a minority.
The question in Texas will come down more and more to whether voters see a low tax, low service state as helping them more than a state that provides better public services.
The empowerment of low income Mexican- Americans in the Rio Grande Valley will provide a base for the Democrats to grow from.
But Chicano empowerment in the Valley will no more determine the political coloration of Texas than the rural, white conservatives current hold on politics dwindling- as that hold will.
The political orientation of Texas will be determined in the older and most populous neighborhoods of San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, Ft. Worth and El Paso. IF people there demand help in dealing with air pollution, transportation gridlock and overcroweded classrooms the Dems will immediately become competitive if not dominant.