Six Red State Targets for Obama

ImageAccording to a Powerpoint presentation that Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe gave on Wednesday, it seems that the campaign is targeting six red states to flip into Barack Obama’s column. Each state is listed below along with a reason why it could support Obama in November.

1). Virginia (13 electoral votes) – Virginia is the most traditionally red state that is likely to flip Democratic. The state has been trending Democratic in the last few years. George W. Bush won the state by 8 over John Kerry in 2004, 54%-46%, but current polling gives Obama a two point lead over McCain in the state, 47%-45%.

2). Ohio (20 electoral votes) – Perhaps no state’s economy has been hurt more by the Bush policies than Ohio, (besides Michigan). Ohio was turned off on the GOP by a scandal involving former Gov. Taft. Bush carried Ohio by two points in 2004, 51%-49%, but Obama leads McCain 50%-39%.

3). Iowa (7 electoral votes) – Iowa is a state that was carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by a single point, 50%-49%. Obama has already proved his popularity in the state by winning the Democratic caucuses there. He currently leads McCain 45%-38% in the state. A deciding factor here is likely to be McCain’s opposition to the federal ethanol subsidy, which Obama not only supports, but wants to expand.

4). New Mexico (5 electoral votes) – New Mexico is another state that has been trending Democratic that George W. Bush barely carried by a single point in 2004. Bush beat Kerry 50%-49%. Obama currently leads McCain by 8 points 47%-39%. New Mexico looks like another dead heat race in 2008, and much will swing on who gets the support of voters age 35-49.

5). Colorado (9 electoral votes) – Colorado with its influx of minority and younger voters could be there for the taking in November. George W. Bush won the state 52%-47% in 2004, and currently Obama has a slim two point lead over McCain 43%-41%. Colorado could go Democratic, but it just as likely could go for McCain by a small margin. This is a state that will be close on Election night.

6). Missouri (11 electoral votes) – George W. Bush carried Missouri in both 2000 and 2004. Bush actually doubled his margin of victory from 4 points in 2000 to 8 points in 2004. However, Democrat and Obama supporter Claire McCaskill was elected to the Senate in 2006. Right now the state is a statistical tie between McCain and Obama with the Democrat holding a slim one point lead 43%-42%. Missouri is a state that is likely to stay tied or close to it.

Plouffe’s Powerpoint presentation in PDF can be read here.

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One Reply to “Six Red State Targets for Obama”

  1. A promising approach to electoral reform, that would encourage a 50-state strategy, is the National Popular Vote.

    Candidates shouldn’t be compelled by state-by-state winner-take-all awarding of electoral college votes, to focus their attention on the handful of closely divided “battleground” states — with recent realities of two-thirds of their visits and money focused in six states; 88% on 9 states; and 99% of their money to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The bill would make every vote politically relevant in a presidential election. It would make every vote equal.

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 19 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.


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