According to a Powerpoint presentation that Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe gave on Wednesday, it seems that the campaign is targeting six red states to flip into Barack Obama’s column. Each state is listed below along with a reason why it could support Obama in November.
1). Virginia (13 electoral votes) – Virginia is the most traditionally red state that is likely to flip Democratic. The state has been trending Democratic in the last few years. George W. Bush won the state by 8 over John Kerry in 2004, 54%-46%, but current polling gives Obama a two point lead over McCain in the state, 47%-45%.
2). Ohio (20 electoral votes) – Perhaps no state’s economy has been hurt more by the Bush policies than Ohio, (besides Michigan). Ohio was turned off on the GOP by a scandal involving former Gov. Taft. Bush carried Ohio by two points in 2004, 51%-49%, but Obama leads McCain 50%-39%.
3). Iowa (7 electoral votes) – Iowa is a state that was carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by a single point, 50%-49%. Obama has already proved his popularity in the state by winning the Democratic caucuses there. He currently leads McCain 45%-38% in the state. A deciding factor here is likely to be McCain’s opposition to the federal ethanol subsidy, which Obama not only supports, but wants to expand.
4). New Mexico (5 electoral votes) – New Mexico is another state that has been trending Democratic that George W. Bush barely carried by a single point in 2004. Bush beat Kerry 50%-49%. Obama currently leads McCain by 8 points 47%-39%. New Mexico looks like another dead heat race in 2008, and much will swing on who gets the support of voters age 35-49.
5). Colorado (9 electoral votes) – Colorado with its influx of minority and younger voters could be there for the taking in November. George W. Bush won the state 52%-47% in 2004, and currently Obama has a slim two point lead over McCain 43%-41%. Colorado could go Democratic, but it just as likely could go for McCain by a small margin. This is a state that will be close on Election night.
6). Missouri (11 electoral votes) – George W. Bush carried Missouri in both 2000 and 2004. Bush actually doubled his margin of victory from 4 points in 2000 to 8 points in 2004. However, Democrat and Obama supporter Claire McCaskill was elected to the Senate in 2006. Right now the state is a statistical tie between McCain and Obama with the Democrat holding a slim one point lead 43%-42%. Missouri is a state that is likely to stay tied or close to it.
Plouffe’s Powerpoint presentation in PDF can be read here.