Obama Getting Stronger, Now Leads in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, and Virginia

ImageA new series of Time/CNN state polls confirms the growing trend towards Barack Obama. Obama now leads John McCain 51%-47% in Florida, 54-43% in Minnesota, 51%-47% in Nevada, 53%-44% in Virginia, and the two candidates are statistically tied in Missouri where Obama has a small 49%-48% lead.

Obama has gained four points in Florida over the last CNN poll. He has gained six points in Missouri where John McCain was ahead by five points in the last poll. McCain led Nevada by two points, and now he trails by four. The two biggest surprises are in Minnesota and Virginia. Obama has gone from a two point lead in Minnesota to an 11 point lead, but the most dramatic swing came in Virginia, where McCain two weeks ago, according to CNN, had a four point lead, now he trails in the state by nine.

Let’s throw out the numbers for a second, and look at the trends and momentum. It is likely that some of these state numbers are a bit inflated, but the trend towards Obama can’t be denied. So, how did this happen? I think the best explanation is that the economic crisis hit the news just as people were really starting to pay attention to this election. People watched the presidential debate to see what the candidates had to offer on the economy, and what they got from McCain was a lot of talk about earmarks and tax cuts.

In contrast, Obama stood there and said that people are hurting. He got caught up in McCain’s discussion about earmarks, but McCain never acknowledged that people are struggling right now. McCain’s suspension of his campaign and rush back to Washington, actually hurt him, because it made him look less presidential. The approach Obama took made him seem calmer and more presidential. This perception along polling that indicates that women have rejected Sarah Palin, and are flocking to Obama in droves is probably enough to move the state polls that we have seen today.

There are also signs that Independents and moderates are shifting to Obama, because these are groups that are usually more sensitive to problems like the economy and the message of change when they feel that things are going poorly. It is too early to read too much into any of these polls, but Democrats can see the potential for a big Obama win. McCain is sinking, and everything is trending towards Obama, but nothing is certain until the votes are counted on November 4.

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5 Replies to “Obama Getting Stronger, Now Leads in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, and Virginia”

  1. Oh Donna, you are so wrong! The Reps have been keeping these lies going even while decrying these rumors. Barak Obama will be the right choice for everybody. The McCain campaign is using every political dirty trick in the book to avoid the issues. Don’t believe their lies! McCain will only represent his millionaire buddies. I’m hoping that Obama will bring us back together as a nation. We need to reach across partisan lines and do what is best for our nation. Don’t accept more republican devisiveness. They have been lining their pockets with your money for eight years!

  2. I pray that Obama wins. I trust him especially for the future of my children and grandchildren in this great country, AMERICA.

  3. You people are so stupid…If elected, America will become a muslim state. Our country will be lost forever to home grown terrorists…Wake up America before it’s to late.

  4. You’ve gotta be kidding!?! This is the best you can do, after mountains of evidence disproving the lie that Obama’s a muslim? This shows why Republicans are losing the election, and losing so very badly. As a whole, Republicans need new material. Fortunately, with all the seats in Congress they’re going to lose over the next couple of years, the Republican party will be able to purge itself of the fanatical evangelical religious zealots and ‘neo-conservatives,’ and actually start being conservative again rather than what they are now.

  5. Lets face it. Many people who say they are worried about Obama being a Muslim and this would be a disaster if he wwere elected are most likely self conscious that they would not vote for a black man. Just admit it.

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