Early Voting Numbers Look Strong for Obama in NC, NV, NM, and IA

ImageObama campaign manager David Plouffe released a memo today that pointed out that the early voting statistics in North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida and Iowa. 20% of all early voting Colorado Democrats had never voted in an election before, and have an almost 300,000 new voter advantage in North Carolina.

In North Carolina 56% of the early votes were cast by Democrats, compared to 48% in 2004. In Nevada 53% of the early votes cast have been Democratic compared to 32% Republican. This is an increase of 8% for the Democrats and 4% for the Republicans. In Iowa Democratic early voting is out pacing Republican 50%-29%. This mostly unchanged from 2004, when it was 48%-30%. In New Mexico, Democrats have cast 56% of the early votes so far compared to 33% for the Republicans. The numbers in 2004 favored the Democrats 50%-38%.

Early voting is fairly evenly split in Colorado where Democrats have cast 39% compared to 38% for the GOP. This is a huge shift from four years ago when Republicans cast 42% of the early votes compared to 34% for the Democrats. If Florida each party has 43% of the early voters. It was virtually the same in 2004 when Republicans cast 43% of the early votes compared to 42% for the Democrats.

People are energized for this election. In North Carolina, 18% of all early Democratic voters are new voters compared to 15% for the Republicans. In Nevada, 40% of the early voters are new or sporadic Democrats compared to 30% who are new or sporadic Republicans. In Iowa, 103,449 new Democrats compared to 73,725 new Republicans. So what does all of this mean? In very raw terms it is the first sign that the Democratic registration advantage is showing up at the polls in these states.

The caveat here is that we don’t know who these early voters are voting for. In states such as Colorado and Florida the early vote is an omen that the race could be close. However, it is a pretty safe guess that Obama is sprinting out to an advantage in states like New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina.

It is unlikely that large numbers of Democrats are voting early in these states to vote for McCain. This is the first small indicator of the potential Obama tidal wave that could be out there. It is numbers like these that have some Republicans already sounding defeated.

Plouffe Memo

7 Replies to “Early Voting Numbers Look Strong for Obama in NC, NV, NM, and IA”

  1. North Carolina: While Democrats, women and blacks are showing up, youth vote is just not mobilizing yet. What is there problem?? I hope that they don’t end up doing their usual all talk and no action again. Does anyone have updated figures on youth voting from battleground states?

  2. I am sorry, I thought that who someone voted for was a secret and that early voting was not counted until Election DAY! What is the Media trying to do, run their own Election. How can you know that Obama is Strong if the ballet have not been counted??? I think we should pass a law that keeps the media out of Election. All we hear are the views of the Media, who cares what you think we want to know what the Candiates think and right now neither one of them has really spelled out what they are far. I feel we should have none of the above and have them start over. I feel at this point in the US we should throw all the Congress out and start fresh with all new people in Washington. Have a law if you do not do your job we the people get to vote on if you get a raise or what type of benefits you get. I think then and only then we will get people working for us instead of the other way around.

  3. “I am sorry, I thought that who someone voted for was a secret and that early voting was not counted until Election DAY!”
    If you’d actually used your brain and read the article, it states…
    “The caveat here is that we don’t know who these early voters are voting for.”
    Heh…And no, we need -less- involvement by the average dumb as a rock American, not more. How will making things more complicated help?

  4. Ladies and Gentleman, the GOP is defeated! Obama has already won this election. It will be a huge tidal wave win for democrats. Don’t even bother going to the polls. Save yourself the trip! ;-)

  5. Please don’t listen to this message. They HAVE NOT been defeated. Nobody should stay home on election day no matter whom we stand with. If we really want this election to reflect what the American people want then we ALL have to make ourselves heard. No matter what the polls show…GET OUT AND VOTE. Because November 5th will be the day you should say to yourself “I am proud I stood up and made my voice heard”

  6. You managed to find one sentence in that whole article that basically makes the entire write-up misleading. If in fact “The caveat here is that we don’t know who these early voters are voting for.” then you basically just proved to your “dumb as rock” self that since they don’t know who people are voting for, that basically nothing in this article can be proven. It is just guessing numbers from a democrat trying to manipulate audiences. Why can’t everyone shut up and quit trying to sway each other’s opinions. No matter what the result is in this election, the president elected is not going to fix everyone’s problems. Frankly, let the democrats win so this country can fall apart and we can blame it on them. Oh yeah, they won’t admit to being at fault and they will just blame it on something else. I also think that more people voting is worse, because that adds more people to the mix that think that Obama is pro-life and that his VP will be Palin. Just ignorant people who are voting because it is the “in” thing to do which crosses out the voters that will be making an educated decision.

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