5 Weeks Out Polls Reveal a Surge of Support for Democrats

New polls released in Kentucky, Nevada, and California show that Democrats are making a big comeback in each state, and the tide may be turning against the GOP. In Kentucky Rand Paul has blown a 15 point lead in less than a month. In Nevada, Harry Reid is up by 5 points on Sharron Angle, and in California the Democrats in both the gubernatorial and the Senate races now lead.

The most interesting case is in Kentucky where Rand Paul has seen a 15 point lead evaporate in less than three weeks. During the first week of September, Paul lead state attorney general Jack Conway 55%-40%, in the Courier-Journal/WHAS 11 Bluegrass Poll, but that lead has complete vanished as Paul still leads 49%-47% with 4% undecided. The race is now within the margin of error, which means that it is a dead heat. What appears to have happened is that women are now tuning in and paying attention, and coming home to the Democrats. In the earlier September poll, Conway only had a 3 point lead with women, but that lead has since ballooned to 16 points. Paul has also seen his lead over Conway drop by 16 points among those who make $50,000 or more.

In Nevada, a Public Opinion Strategies Poll of registered voters shows Harry Reid leading Sharron Angle 45%-40%. Both Reid and Angle were known by 98% of those surveyed, and what seems to be killing Angle is a low favorable rating. Both Reid and Angle have high unfavorable ratings of 51% and 52% respectively, but the difference between the two candidates is that Sharron Angle has 38% favorable rating compared to 44% favorable rating for Reid. If Republicans would have run a candidate that voters in Nevada could like, Reid would probably be well on his way to defeat, but as it stands if Reid wins by 5-6 points, the GOP will have the Tea Party to thank for costing them another Senate seat.

In California, a new LA Times/USC survey has found that both well known and wealthy Republican candidates for senator and governor are faltering. The underfunded, but well known, Jerry Brown is now leading Meg Whitman 49%-44%. While Sen. Barbara Boxer has opened up an eight point lead on her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 51%-43%. Both of the GOP candidates have the same problem. Voters don’t like them. Meg Whitman has spent $119 million trying to become the next governor, yet she has only a 33% favorable rating. Her unfavorable rating is 44%. In comparison, her opponent Democrat Jerry Brown has 40% approval rating and 41% disapproval rating.

Meg Whitman’s favorable numbers are bad, but Carly Fiorina’s are worse. While her unfavorable rating is a relatively low 29%, her favorable rating is a miserable 24%. In contrast, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has 44% favorable rating, and a 41% unfavorable rating. Fiorina’s biggest problem though is the popularity of Barack Obama. The president enjoys a 63% favorable rating in the state, and Fiorina’s promise to work against Obama’s agenda may have doomed her with the voters, as the survey of registered voters discovered that 56% of them wanted a senator who would support President Obama.

The polls are not only tightening because it is October and people are starting to pay attention, but there is something else at work here. In their quest for ideological purity, Republicans have nominated some very unlikable candidates, and in state after state the more voters see and hear the Teapublican candidates, the less they like them. This is why the Teapublicans avoid debating their opponents and the media. The more people find out about these candidates, the better the Democrats look.

While it is still too early to say definitively what will happen in November, since Obama’s election, Republicans have struggled both on issues like healthcare reform, and in special elections with the problem of peaking too early, fading late, and being unable to close the deal with voters and the public. The Democratic strategy this year is to spend late in the cycle to capitalize on the GOP fade.

What looked like a bloodbath for the Democrats is starting to shape up to be a traditional midterm election during a recession. It is very possible that the GOP will end up blowing their chance at a historic victory, because their party’s radical fringe took over and nominated a slate of unelectable candidates. Even though the national media has not caught on yet, and would be unlikely to change their narrative if they did, this election is starting to turn, and there should be no surprise if the Democrats manage to do okay on Election Night.

63 Replies to “5 Weeks Out Polls Reveal a Surge of Support for Democrats”

  1. 5 weeks out and a bounce in the Dems direction now if we can just keep the pressure on and the GnOP keeps opening their collective mouth and placing their collective foot into it we could see onkly small losses in the house and a push in the senate. Hell with Bill and First Lady Michelle out campaigning we could even see I dare to say a gain in red state seats.

  2. This is great news. It means Americans are not the radical anarchists the Teapubicans take them for. I do wish they’d stop using words that infer they speak for all Americans. Clearly, they don’t and clearly they won’t.

  3. Thank you, Jason. I really needed to see this after reading this: http://bit.ly/bcgP6X this morning. Spent the day in a bit of a funk – now I will sleep better. Judging from my Twitter friends, Politicususa is really gaining in popularity. Keep churning out the great work. Heaven knows the MSM hasn’t.

  4. I so hope this all American thing of no debating blows up on these fools. The dems need to use this non-debate thing big time.

  5. “As Paul Krugman notes, the Republican Pledge claims that “everything must be cut, in ways not specified – ‘except for common-sense exceptions for seniors, veterans, and our troops.’ In other words, Social Security, Medicare and the defense budget are off-limits. [Krugman should have also mentioned service to the existing debt, which is one of the biggest single items in the federal budget today, and absolutely cannot be touched.] So what’s left? Howard Gleckman of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has done the math. As he points out, the only way to balance the budget by 2020, while simultaneously (a) making the Bush tax cuts permanent and (b) protecting all the programs Republicans say they won’t cut, is to completely abolish the rest of the federal government: ‘No more national parks, no more Small Business Administration loans, no more export subsidies, no more N.I.H. No more Medicaid (one-third of its budget pays for long-term care for our parents and others with disabilities). No more child health or child nutrition programs. No more highway construction. No more homeland security. Oh, and no more Congress.'””

    And so few understand this. The republicans want a King. Good link

  6. What really bothers me is my home state of PA. I don’t live there at present but plan on returning in the next two years. I follow the politics of the state. I know the population has changed over the years, but many people still descend from coal miners, steel workers, textile workers, etc. Their ancestors had to fight management for rights and now the state seems poised to elect Toomey over Sestak along with a Republican governor because they are unhappy with the last two years after 8 years of Bush. I just don’t understand it. WJC has campaigned in PA several times for Sestak. I hope the polls are wrong.

  7. I am quite happy to learn this, and I sincerely hope this year turns out to be the exception to the general rule that the party of the president normally loses in off-year elections. With the lunatic-fringe candidates of the Teapublicans promising to dismantle institutions and legislation that have helped so many, and with their continuous lies accompanied by dodging relevant questions, 2010 is an especially critical year. The only outcome that the Party of No deserves is to be discredited and soundly defeated, because they have proven amply that they care nothing about Americans, in spite of their bombastic claims of moral and patriotic superiority.

  8. I live in PA and the only way Toomey wins is if Democrats are not allowed to vote. We all know Pat “Looney Toomey” and the polls in that race are also tightening. If Dems show up November 2 Sestak will have no trouble winning.

  9. The KY poll is a lie.

    The pol lthat showed Rand Paul up 15 points had a makeup of 48% Dem 42% GOP a nd 10% Ind

    The new poll is 51% DEM, 36% GOP and 12% Ind.

    Problem is in 2008 GOP made up 38% of KY electorate and Dems made up 48%. The idea that there will be proportionally fewer GOP voters and more RATS in 2010 than in 2008 is absurd.

    Paul by 7 to 10 on Nov 2.

  10. “”Hell with Bill and First Lady Michelle out campaigning we could even see I dare to say a gain in red state seats.””

    Bill Clinton has one of the worst win records as a campaigner. A Bill Clinton appearance since 1993, has been the kiss of death.

  11. I’d like the people of Minnesota know that the advertisement for Tom Horner is misleading. Horner was a republican. How devious for the republican party to ‘plant’ a disguised republican as a independent, so if their main republican fails to gain office….their ‘backup’ might be placed instead.

  12. Facts every were Bill goes and campaigns for gets a bump in the polls even FOX(Fox News Election HQ Sept 26) has reconized this. And Bill is seen more favorable on the economy than Obama. One poll has proclaimed Bill as the best economic manager in 50 years(The Atlantic Sept 23). So kiss of death I don’t think so.

  13. Angle, Paul, & O’Donnell losing would be especially sweet as it would be three races the GOP would have won if the Teabaggers hadn’t won the primary.

    Just wish we could beat Marco Rubio & Joe Miller too… but it doesn’t seem likely at the moment.

  14. A lie? Really? Did it ever occur to you that the methodology between the two polls might be different? Probably not, because that would require an ability to think. I’ll bet you thought the Bluegrass Poll was just dandy when Paul was up by 15 earlier this month. If you are going to disagree with a poll there are thousands of more credible ways to do it than to call it a lie.

  15. I read earlier today that Conway is up by 3 among voters who know both him and Paul (Paul has a name recognition advantage…) this would seem to indicate that Conway is in very good position as more people learn about him. Especially considering the type of low info voters who wouldn’t know about him are more likely to be “middle of the road” types.

  16. Thanks Marvin, that was exactly the point of my post. As voters start to pay attention, we are seeing a lot of these races tighten, and as more women find out about the extreme views of these candidates on women’s issues we can expect them to break more for the Democrats.

  17. BUT, we need to GOTV more than ever. read the primary this year was the highest ever for GOP and lowest for Dems…we have to vote, get to your Dem office and call, walk with candidates, drag a friend to the poll-if there is apathy then it won’t happen….I walked with a local Dem candidate last week. he walkd 5 days a week and he’s had maybe 1 volunteer per day-we have 80,000 registered Dems in a town of 600,000. We don’t have money, all we have is feet.

  18. We signed up for two days of calling this coming weekend and we’re using our home as a base. The response has been excellent so far and I’m hoping we can get people motivated to get out and vote. I’ve signed up for driving those in need so they can get out and vote. If the Democratic party gets organized and gets the vote out, they could wipe the smirks off the face of some of those idiots. I’d especially love to see Palin’s choices defeated, that would be such a victory. However would she explain it? The media’s fault, of course!

  19. Joe Wilson! Is that YOU?
    Aren’t you supposed to be quiet until you’re done being investigated for ethics violations?

  20. I think the Democrats need to make a deal with Crist… get Meek to drop out and endorse Crist in exchange for Crist caucusing (as an independent) with the Democrats.

    In exchange for being a loyal Democrat Meek could be given something in the House and a promise he will be first in line for the Senate, the next time a position opens up.

  21. I wrote recently about the short-sightedness of progressives in threatening to stay home rather than vote as sour grapes:


    And the fact that this country is poised to make a hard left, it’s just that it’s like turning an ocean liner, it takes time:


    If progressives will adequately prepare there will be many farther left candidates to elect, but we need to get all the Dems we can elected today to hold places and ground until the shift is in full swing.

  22. If we could do this in Michigan to help the Democrat, Virg Bernero, become governor. The guy leading is the repug. He laid off hundreds of employees and sold his company, Gateway, to Chinese investors. He is very wealthy due to that, taking huge tax credits (taxpayer dollars) to do that and is now using that money to take Michigan back to the hole it was in when the republican governor Engler left office eight years ago. Basically, our current Democratic governor inherited the same lousy ecomony President Obama inherited from Bush and in eight years has done an amazing job putting in place new companies to replace some of the jobs the auto companies sent overseas.

  23. This in spite of all the negative propaganda which will probably increase drastically over the next few week. Keep spreading the truth, and our numbers will continue to grow. We have to turn out as if it were the Presidential election, or risk going backwards.

  24. both parties are misrepresenting the governor’s candidates in michigan.
    candidate bernero claims snyder laid off workers, but as i understand it he was merely on the board of directors which doesn’t give him final say on lay-offs.

    on the other hand

    candidate snyder says he created jobs, but there again as merely being on the board of directors he wasn’t in a position to claim responsibility for that, and to top it off the company (gateway) was sold to china after all of the jobs he claims he created turned into lay-offs.

    i’ll leave it to you to decide which statement is more dishonest.

  25. The Teapublicans have no leadership, no defined goals and no solutions. They play on the fears of people but offer no answers to alleviate those fears. They are a distraction from the serious issues that need to be addressed if the lives of Americans are to be improved and the health of the nation preserved. Hopefully the public is beginning to see what a bunch of empty pots they are.

  26. the fact that they offer absolutely zero specifics, lie about everything they say and are only interested in tearing down what the Democrats have done says you are absolutely right

  27. Thanks, Jason. I’ve watched for a long time as the right has deployed their sound-byte psy-ops, facilitated by the “liberal” media. I can’t decide whether the philosophy behind it is “say it enough and it will become true” (a belief that one manipulate one’s own objective reality), or “we can convince progressive voters that a Republican takeover is a foregone conclusion” (in which pre-discouraged progressives stay home on election day).
    On second thought, I guess the latter falls inder the umbrella of the former.
    I believe it will fail regardless of its philosophical underpinnings; we are beginning to reap the fruits of a fear-based campaign strategy, and the entire harvest has rotted before it could ripen. The right has “misunderestimated” the American people at large, and are going to pay a steep price for allowing the TeaBaggers admission to their party.
    No fear here; I’m ready for a fight…

  28. We don’t need no stinkin’ teabagger lying and saying they represent all Americans, they sure as hell don’t represent me. I represent me and as a voter in PA, I’ll vote Dems.
    Everyone I know will also vote Dems. People who don’t vote Dems. I don’t talk to because they have their own twisted world to live in and I don’t plan to live there.

  29. Don’t forget Tom Perriello in VA. The most recent polls also show a tightening of the race. I believe, though I cannot confirm, that his numbers now look better than they did at the same time 2 years ago when he won the seat.

  30. Democrats are surging and thank God for it. We have to get out there and vote. Then win and win for this country because Democrats are on the right side of every issue that America values.

  31. Could it be that these two republican women are falling in the polls because they look better on paper than in real life or are people finding out who they real are? Lets face it Carly Fiorina was basically fired from HP, but not before she sent HP USA jobs overseas. California has already tried a so-called outsider Independent Republican, his name Arnold Schwarzenegger, we all know how that turned out. Meg Whitman, thinks she can buy the election, but what puzzles many is if she real cared and loved California then why not do your civic duty and vote, seems she is more rhetoric than anything (in good times we would give her a try but not in our disaster mode that we are in). She is finding out that California is not for sale and that you can’t buy everything! What a waste of money!

  32. If the Democrats come out to vote (Blacks, Latinos, and Women), as it now appears they will with the enthusiasm gap narrowing, it should be a good election night outcome. Democrats will retain control of both chambers of congress, in spite of the media pundits and pollsters, who prefer to stir up controversy and speculate on the outcome of every race. Looking forward to mud on their faces come November 3.

  33. I have to ask, do you honestly think that the Democrats have ANY chance of winning in November? With Fox News and the Tea Party in full blitz mode?

    Trust me, I do not want it to happen, and I do not want a republican majority, but if the democrats cannot even WIN with the majority, IMAGINE what the republicans can do WITH the Majority!

    Now that is scary! Fox-News: The New Congress, The New Senate; Fair and Balanced.

  34. The only reasons to vote for any Republican are: you are rich and greedy, racist, believe in tall tales, or are just not very intelligent. I hope that the thought of being governed by even more extremely crazy people who are like Bachmann, Foxx, Gohmert, DeMint, etc. is enough to scare people to vote and work hard to get as many out to vote as possible. It would be great if we could gain more seats to makeup for the DINOs. We all need to fear for our country if the Republicans take over.

  35. The hope is that we come together to move the party of no out.
    It must be done to help get out of the BIGGGG HOLE Bush made
    for this country. Do not want to continue digging the BUSH hole.

  36. Jason, put down your crack pipe.

    Your messiah will be crippled in November and then ejected in 2012.


  37. Agree totally-Since Meek has no chance at all and Crist would harbor some bitterness towards the Repubs-wouldn’t hurt.

  38. The only reason the Democrats have a problem as they do not know how to put out a positive message about their accomplishments.Republicans basically repeat a lie over and over and over until their moronic followers accept it as truth.Obama not a citizen,Obama,no birth certificate, Obama a Muslim,Death squads for medicare,rich people create jobs,etc. Democrats should mention that most Tarp money is being repaid,that banks can no longer collect $35 overdraft fees,that the housing meltdown wasn’t because of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac,it was because of shady mortgage practices and Republican deregulation. and health care,no $500 billion dollar cut but projected savings.Children insured,college students and young people insured to age 26 and not being turned down due to pre-existing illness. These are all positive things but somehow not enough people get the real message about the only party that cares for all of its citizens,not only the haves.

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