So Much For GOP Enthusiasm: 2012 Iowa Winner Has Least Support Ever

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The winner of tonight’s Iowa GOP caucuses is destined to beat Bob Dole’s record for the lowest amount of support for a winning candidate ever.

No matter who wins Iowa one thing will be perfectly clear, Republican primary voters have never been more unhappy with their options than they are in 2012. All through 2011, the media was trumpeting the enthusiasm among Republicans for the 2012 election. If Republican enthusiasm ever did exist, it has almost certainly been killed by the group of candidates who are battling for their party’s nomination.

The winner of tonight’s Iowa Republican caucuses will finish with 25% of the vote, which will set an Iowa Republican record for the least amount of support for a winning candidate. The previous record holder was Bob Dole in 1996 who won Iowa with 26% of the vote, and we all know what happened to Dole the following November.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won with 34% of the vote. In 2000, George W. Bush won with 40.99% of the vote. In contrast, the 2012 winner will have won with a nearly double digit drop in support compared to Huckabee margin, and fifteen points less than Bush. The media is doing their best to try to turn 2012 into some epic battle between Democrats and a revived Republican Party, but the GOP may actually be in worse shape than they were in 2008.

Republicans are no doubt excited to go to the polls to vote against Barack Obama in 2012, but Democrats were even more excited to vote against George W. Bush in 2004. The point is that the excitement caused by the prospect of voting against an incumbent isn’t enough by itself to get a challenger elected. A winning challenger must be able to convince voters that not only should the incumbent not be reelected, but that they would do a better job.

If Republicans can’t find a candidate that can motivate the base to come out and vote for them as well as voting against Obama, the president will win a second term.

No group of voters has seen more of this rag tag bunch of GOP contenders than Republicans in Iowa have, and judging by their reaction tonight there isn’t a true frontrunner or exciting candidate in the bunch.

11 Replies to “So Much For GOP Enthusiasm: 2012 Iowa Winner Has Least Support Ever”

  1. I wonder what the turnout was like? I can’t imagine that there was enough enthusiasm for this field of candidates to get people out in droves.

  2. 130,000+ votes and Romney wins by 8 of those.

    Maybe the Republican Party actually is dead for the next 50 yrs.

  3. It is being reported by OFA on Twitter that 25,000+ participated in PBO’s teleconference and that over 5,000 people pledged to volunteer for his re-election campaign in Iowa. Fox mouthpieces Bill Kristol and Megyn Kelly were having a hissy fit about this earlier today and were saying that PBO was “interfering” in the Iowa GOP Caucus. It seems they’re afraid of our president for some reason. Maybe it’s because, even though he wasn’t participating in a primary, almost as many participated in his event as voted for Romney and Santorum. It was also reported that he received @68% of the vote among the teleconference attendees. I guess the rest voted “undecided,” because that was their stated goal–to teach the president “a lesson” since that worked out so well in the midterms. If only this group would study recent history, they’d discover that it was dems like themselves who helped put Ronald Reagan in the WH.

  4. The GOP has only itself to blame for the low quality of candidates it finds itself stuck with in 2012. For years, they have pandered to the worst impulses and fears of the electorate and have made a virtue of being dumbed down. That explains their attempts to co-opt the Tea Party, which has co-opted the GOP instead. The current cast of clowns is lacking in empathy or moral character, and all they seem concerned about is defeating President Obama. Beyond that, they have nothing to offer except their same stale and discredited “ideas” like trickle-down theory, fewer and fewer taxes on the “job creators,” interference in the sexual behavior of Americans, appeals to xenophobia and racism, and cutting funding for critical programs along with the thirst for a war with Iran (excepting Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman). Willard is an extremely weak front-runner, which attests to the visceral dislike that he has justly earned. He’s acting like he’s in the general campaign, planning to use the President’s own words against him. However, given his record of unethical shape-shifting and his ruthlessness in sacrificing American workers to benefit corporate masters, I can’t imagine why he would want to go there. They are an extremely sorry lot, but it’s a case of the GOP reaping what it has sown for years.

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