Poll: Republicans Could Be Heading For A Devastating 2012 Defeat

A new Democracy Corps poll revealed a nightmare scenario for Republicans where not only does Obama get reelected but Democrats regain total control of Congress.

According to Democracy Corps, for the first time in two years the Democratic Party has taken the lead on the generic congressional ballot, 47%-44%. The bad news for the GOP is that Independents have shifted back to the Democratic Party. In the previous surveys congressional Republicans led congressional Democrats by a net 9 points in October and 19 points in August with Independents, but today Democrats have taken a two point lead.

Why have the Democrats surged? The answer is that the behavior of Republicans in Congress has turned off voters. By a margin of 53%-39% respondents said the more they watched the Republicans in Congress, the less they like what they are offering. Approval of Republicans in Congress has dropped to a new low of 28%, and 8% strongly approve of the Republican caucus.

If congressional Republicans are hurting the GOP brand, the party’s 2012 presidential candidates may be making things even worse. By a margin of 53%-38% respondents said the more they watch the GOP nomination, the less they like what the Republican Party has to offer. Frontrunner Mitt Romney is not personally popular with Republicans or Independents. Only 31% of Republicans and 27% of Independents had warm feelings for Romney. Republicans are cold on Romney, and they are ready to bolt to a third party candidate.

18%-25% of Republicans and Republican leaners surveyed said that they would vote for a conservative third party candidate, and if that candidate was Ron Paul, Romney’s general election support would collapse.

Obama leads Romney by one point (47%-46%) in a two person race, but if Paul gets in, Romney loses 12 points and falls to 34%. Obama only loses three points if Paul runs as an Independent, and overall Paul draws the support of 18% of the electorate. (A third party candidacy by Ron Paul would split the Republican vote, and hand the election to Obama).

A big problem for Republicans was that President Obama remained the most personally popular politician in the poll. Obama now only trails Romney by three points with Independents, and the Democratic Party 5 points and moved into a tie with Republicans on the issue of the economy. The poll also found that Obama has more potential voters willing to support him than Romney does.

All three of these components, an unpopular Republican congress, a cold fish of a nominee, and surging incumbent president could add up to a perfect storm of defeat for the GOP. The most telling statistic is that the more people get to know the Republican Party, the less likely they are to support their candidates.

The problem with generic ballots is that unnamed candidates tend to be more popular than real people, but generic ballots can help gauge the current temperature of an electorate. Right now, the electorate is moving back to the Democratic Party.

The Republican Party could have offset the damage done by their congressional members with a warm, energizing, and inspiring nominee. Unfortunately for them, Mitt Romney is none of those things. Romney tends to leave voters cold, and helps to reinforce the negative impressions that many respondents have about the GOP.

The ultimate representation of Republican voter dissatisfaction is their willingness to vote for a third party conservative candidate. The GOP has become an unpopular party that is seriously in danger of fracturing. Add into this equation an incumbent president who is personally popular and gaining positive momentum in the polls, and the result is the potential for a disastrous defeat.

It is possible, even without the presence of an Independent conservative third party candidate that Democrats take back the House, keep the Senate, and win the White House.

The pieces are starting to fall into place for what looked like an impossible scenario after the 2010 election to become a reality in 2012.

55 Replies to “Poll: Republicans Could Be Heading For A Devastating 2012 Defeat”

  1. Add to the mix, the reprehensible actions of Republican/Tea Party governors like Scott Walker, Rick Snyder and John R. Kasich. Governor Perry (he *will not* be Candidate Perry…we’re still smarting from the last Texan Fumbletongue-in-Chief) is making Texas look bad, too. That’s a WHOLE lot of voters who won’t be voting for Romney come November.

  2. I hope. I wish. And then I hope and wish the election matters, and we aren’t cheated out of it by Diebold, faithless electors, or worse.

  3. Let them try to steal this election and we will have to resort to Second Amendment Remedies! Later Teabagging OOZE! We get a receipt at fucking Circle K but we can’t get one from Diebold? They need to go.

  4. Republicans Could Be Heading For A Devastating 2012 Defeat

    Devasting for who? Do you think we really care about Washingtom irrelevant politics? Get real and out of your pathetic US of A*** bubble. The world is out here – global – get a life!

    Haliburton lives! World domination – through the back door! Who’s the Fumbletongue-in-chief? Stars-and strife! My dog!

  5. They know their chances. That’s why the Klanservative Klanbagger Kochsuckers are doing everything in their power to disenfranchise everyone but selfish old bible-(t)humping racists.

  6. Lets face it, its not just the actions of the completely witless GOP in congress, its the pushing of the religious issues like taking away birth control and women’s rights. I am betting on a hunch that the local GOP has more to do with things than just the dismal dysfunctional House of Reps. They have shunned and badgered minorities and have done everything they can to lose this election.

    But they are still confident. They have more than we know up their sleeve. If Boehner the last thought they were going to lose the election he wouldn’t say that he refudiates the word compromise.

  7. from you blog to the creators ears…. i do believe that axelrod and schultz are pulling out all the stops to get the prez a filibuster proof senate, and congress back in dem majority. there are senarios that this could happen. but beware of the typical GOP gerryrigging of vote tabulations. they stole the 2000 elections from gore dont forget.

    and the GOP motto is: Diebold, we vote so you dont have to…….

  8. no its better to sit back complain and let the plutocracy completely take over. but we are one tipping point away anywhere in the world from a total freak out…. i hear pakistan is really going to go rouge within a few weeks, if that happens with their nukes, all bets are off. saw a very enlightening story on this today on al jezzera.

    so the elections just might be a back story to what is coming….

  9. NO republican screwball that wants to take my,my wife’s,kids,grand kids,whole family and yours doc. sec and medicare away,put my child to work and then do away with the minimum wage and all worker rights,women’s rights,turn us into a corporate,pollution filled no mountains republican crap will never win any seats for 25 years! We the 99% hate republicans and their money men backers,voters,all and will never trust the GOP again ever!

  10. Hahahahahah. Thanks for the laugh. You guys have been smoking the green shoots again. Obama and the New Democratic progressive Union Socialist Communist Party are in for another beating. So are many of the Republican rino statists. Dr. Ron Paul in 2012.

  11. mmm Kimo Sabe, the Fox News is strong with this one. The delusions are epic!

    He will be happy when Paul repeals the 14th and takes his kids kids citizenship away

  12. This is where I worry about the obvious attempts by people to convince the Left that Obama’s selling us out. Consider the fraudulent info about the NDAA’s detention provisions that are still flying around. We’re facing a ratfuck and it’s still January. Let’s hope that kind of thing stays on the fringe that wouldn’t vote for Obama without their single pet issue anyway.

  13. In the world of unintended consequences, all the new money that is flooding the Republican candidates is apparently prolonging the battle among them and making things nastier. No one is dropping out and they have months and months to bash each other bloody.

  14. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida hate their governors.

    The people in those states got a taste of the New Republican anti-worker policies.

    No way in the world Gordan Gekko wins any of those states.

  15. If you are looking for people to take themselves out of some myopic fixation with American politics perhaps you should visit a site that isn’t named PoliticusUSA.

  16. The more folks learn about Ron Paul, the more they see that aside from a few good ideas, he is an anachronism. He is even farther to the right than the mainstream party when it comes to being anti-government and his every-man-for-himself mentality. Since he’s not going to get the GOP nomination, he might be just vainglorious enough to run in a third party, which would hurt Romney more.

  17. I agree and disagree…

    I agree that the pushing of a moral agenda instead of governing on reality is their toe-hold to keeping the pressure (and the money) on the gains made by the Bush Admin. Yes, the “appear” confident, but that’s only because their empire is crumbling under the heavy burden of over-reach…along with their dysfunctional tunnel vision, etc.

    I disagree that they do not have more up their sleeve (unless it’s all out civil war) as they’ve shot their “wad” on looser candidates, have lost the Teabaggers who wanted economic changes, and, can’t find a way to bring themselves back from the abyss that they themselves created and walked into…they don’t know where they’re, they’re lost in the desert and are acting “macho” as if they know how to “get there”
    …they’re outta’ gas and still have 9 months to go.

  18. …”New Democratic progressive Union Socialist Communist Party are in for another beating.”

    Comrade Petey,you have it backwards, out of blind fear, as usual…

    It’s the “Old Fart Republican McCarthy-era Theocon Party” who are in for the beating…you can smell their decay.

  19. When the decisions made by the Republicans could end my life and freedom, I think that’s a good reason to be focused on trying to stop them.

    I mean literally. I had a stroke last month (TIA – I recovered after a while), and am now on medications to prevent another (plus my blood sugar and pressure went up after the stroke, and I’m now diabetic). Under Republican plans and goals, I would be out of luck, stripped of the aid we get, and unable to afford the medicines OR get insurance ever again (pre-existing conditions).

    Plus, I am a Walkaway – I left the Pentecostal/Dominionist churches nearly 30 years ago. They haven’t forgotten, and according to them I am an “Apostate”. If they get their way (destroying freedom in this country and establishing theocracy), I am in line for the death penalty (Biblical punishment for apostasy) or put in a “re-education camp”.

    I am also Native American by birth. Under the Republicans, unless I assimilate, I am at best a third-class citizen. At least I wouldn’t be put to death, however (I might be put in slavery) – like my GLBT friends would.

    Finally, I am over 50 and finally dreaming of having a career. The GOD DAMNED dominionists screwed with the my life and brain so bad that I didn’t get close to recovery until less than 10 years ago (most of the memory of that time was repressed for 28 years), and I finally returned to school. Not only are Republicans racist and sexist, they’re also quite often ageist too… and I would be denied a chance to achieve my dream, which is something everyone else takes for granted.

    So I would suggest that you NOT belittle our attempts to stop the greedy damned Republicans and their 1% masters. For some of us, it is literally a matter of life and death.

  20. I wouldn’t write them off so quickly. They’re masters of spin and lies, and a lot can happen in 9 months. I too have a gut feeling that they’ve got something horrific up their sleeve (besides their arm). I wouldn’t put it past them to engineer something to make President Obama and the Democrats look bad. We already know their 1% masters are greedy, crooked, and amoral enough to do something horrible. Plus they and their dominionist partners-in-crime are masters of brainwashing and programming, and the American public has been brought to the point of being comatose by sitcoms and other puerile fare (and thus more susceptible to brainwashing techniques).

    I hope – no, I pray that they all are soundly defeated. For me, it could be a matter of life or death.

  21. To A Walkaway: Thank you for saying this, for speaking up, for telling the truth. My experience sounds exactly like yours, and so are my political views. I am amazed and it also lets me know that I am not the only one. Thank you for sharing.

  22. I pray for only one thing this election cycle: that the republicans get exactly what they deserve.


  24. it’s a shame spending all that money that could be put to good construcive use instead of destructive.

  25. I would never, ever write them off let alone turn my back or play “forgive and forget” with these dregs from below the bottom-feeders…

    My point is, they are grasping for anything to make their moral position stick, just like prior religions have done for centuries…look at the how the Catholics “embedded” themselves with the Spanish royals; results were horrifying and, eventually, their empire decayed because of their ties to their partners-in-crime…same with the Dutch and their Calvinistic masters who also wound up in “decay” even though they blamed everyone else of “moral decay”…I’m merely pointing out that religious zealots seem to always show up in spades right before the downfall of an empire…remember Queen Victoria’s Puritanical reign, how English industrialist /military might went under shortly after? You’re thoughts…

  26. The system must be cleansed. Repubs are on their way out. (: Repubs lack the empathy that dems and indies have, period Capitalism is outdated. The constitution is outdated and doesn’t apply to people today. All kinds of reasons to break up the repub party! (:

  27. I hope you’re wrong, but from this point of view:

    When empires collapse, the result is usually bad for the ordinary people (exception – the Mayan empire collapsed because the people {still existent and with an understanding of what happened} basically abandoned the elites and their political structure because it failed them).

    I would rather see this country abandon its empire and gracefully and gradually back away from being “top dog”. I would rather see all nations work together as equals and not what we have now… this country and a couple of others trying to dictate to the world. In such a scenario, the ordinary people actually could have a better (and more sustainable) standard of living.

    It’s an interesting observation you’ve made, however… that when the religion embeds itself so deeply into the political realm, the structure soon fails. I’ll have to think about that further, as I’m aware of other situations (involving more than Christianity) where that could be the case.

  28. All Hail Ron Paul!!! And no, Petey (speaking to small child), the emperor IS wearing fine robes and is not naked.

    In other words, wake up and face the reality about your beloved cult leader! He’s a dominionist and a racist bigot, and his utopia will be your (and our) hell.

  29. Uh… the constitution is in no way outdated. It’s what protects (or is supposed to protect) us.

    Granted, some of the wording is (“Indians not taxed” is pure hell-spawned racism), and it can be abused, but the instrument itself is as vital and valid today as it ever has been.

  30. I read this article myself, and I thank you for bringing it to our attention. It does a thorough job of laying out just how Ron Paul’s regressive ideas outnumber the very few ideas of his that are in alignment with those of progressives. He is another Republican who is counting on ignorance of his well-documented history and current views that highlight homophobia, misogyny, anti-black racism, and a disdain for the safety net protecting the most economically vulnerable Americans. Excepting the few good ideas, he is just as much a part of the far-right lunatic fringe as any of these other clowns running for the GOP nomination.

  31. Sounds just like my story – except I spent 20 years as a military officer. Female. I’m so screw@d by my government, I’m one step from homeless. The bank forecloses Feb 2.

  32. ah geezzz, La-weez…is there anyway you can get help through the system via one of the new programs Obama has up and running for Vets who want to start their own business? Check it out; it may be capital to get something going in order to put the bank at bay…I’ll ask around, Robyn.

  33. I liked the article, especially “Whenever the word ‘Republican’ is used, it was almost like an automatic wall that falls,” George Rodriguez, president of the San Antonio Tea Party…”Yet when we used the word ‘conservative,’ people were more responsive.”


    This is an old technique called “Divine Deception” used by religious cults, as in, it’s OK to lie to people who ask, “Are you a member of the Unification Church/are you a Moonie?” when in conversation; in this case, are you a “Republican?”….oh no, not me! I’m part of a group called “Conservatives”! Or “I’m not married, I just wear a this ring…”

    Can you imagine anyone falling for this “I’m not affiliated or a member of the Republican Party, but belong to some other group”, like there’s a distinct difference from the Teaparty? How are they any different than a cultist “lying”, using “Divine Deception” about their affiliation in order to recruit?

    Freakin’ Moonies, er ah, I mean, Republicans…

  34. Is it my imagination or is there some sort of cottage industry of companies that makes gobs of cash from low information citizens by blowing their dog whistles extremely loud (St**e Mount***) to prepare for a ‘coming conflict’.
    If things were to go south as they claim what make you think that ANY amount of weekend warrior training is gonna protect you?!! While idiological differences seem to be the order of the day, in a country where ‘accquring’ weapons is pretty easy, and bullets don’t discriminate. Anyone who says that their ‘side’ will come out on top in the event of some civil conflict in this county is deluding themselves, cause if it does down, no one is walking away, period. Better to play nice and live a long peaceful live than the alternative

  35. Divine deception… I’m not sure what the dominionists call it these days, but they certainly practice it too and lying to “promote the kingdom of God” is considered perfectly acceptable.

    “Flirty fishing” (aka “Missionary Dating”) and other nefarious things are also known to be cult techniques (along with “Love Bombing”) and these also are regular techniques used by churches like the Assemblies and the Southern Baptists.

    More and more we see the walls between the two (Republicans and dominionists) come tumbling down. The Republicans are acting more and more like them… how long before they start preaching?

    Oh, that’s right… some of them already are.

    I wonder how long before single liberals will be sought out by cute young men/young ladies and get the “I’m interested in you!” sales pitch, followed by “But in order to learn more about me, you must come to our rally!”

    Freakin’ Moonies… or “Damned Dominionists!”

  36. They could get a lot of people out from underwater with their mortgages, or feed a lot of really hungry people, or put a lot of people through college. They could fund research on alternate energy, or really help the space program, or pay for medical care for people.

    They’d rather spend it on trying to increase their power.

    Well, it’s well known that they consider profits to be more important than people.

  37. Tim Wise is a well-known race issues researcher, and highly respected. I’d gotten away from checking to see if he had anything new to say, and had missed that one.

    I got quite a chuckle out of it… especially when I figured out where he was going.

  38. I USED to fear they were all powerful, but they have become internally fragmented between the corporatists and the evangelicals and the traditionalists between the two. I see at least three camps, and while they’re all financially strong, they hate one another, and it’s pretty clear the evangelical/fundamentalist/Dominionists will NOT EVER vote for Mitt. Rove is Newt’s guy, Newt won’t make it, Romney hates Rove (I hear) and Rove won’t go with Santorum who hates him, too. Dysfunction is our salvation!

    I totally agree with the two of you who are walkaways – you have much to fear. All women do, but especially you. That is why the EmoProg, IgnoProg (my term – ignorant progressives) and PL are not thinking through the consequences of dissing Obama. I don’t think the Dems will lose – I think they will win, but the left, broadly speaking, cannot spin its wheels undermining Obama when there is a very real, mortal enemy present who are fixated on meting out “justice” to those whom they hate. We have a common enemy – and it cannot be allowed to retain power. At ALL.

  39. In the end all the gop who hate mitt will vote for him. I hope the progressives can stop saying what about me and what do I get long enough to be a solid block like the gop.

  40. The 2010 class of Republican Governors in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida gave Obama a golden gift: the votes of white working-class men.

  41. Oh! I read that article a couple of days ago, and wondered…why have I missed this guy so far? Just a suberb article, I even copied it because it did such a bangup job of telling what Ron Paul is really all about.

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