It is early, but an analysis of state by state polling data reveals that President Obama may be heading for a huge victory over Mitt Romney.
Although President Obama’s polling numbers have been trending upwards for a few months now, the right wing media is claiming that the president is heading for a huge defeat based on a state by state analysis of an average of his 2011 Gallup approval ratings. The analysis assumed that any state where the president has an under 50% job approval rating would go Republican in fall. There are three obvious problems with this conclusion. First, Obama’s national job approval rating is a tick or two under 50%, so that under the right wing analysis, Obama would lose most of the states in the country. Second, what a year long average can’t reflect is that President Obama’s approval ratings are trending up.
Third, President Obama isn’t running for reelection against his own approval rating. He will be running against Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. The more accurate way to measure Obama’s reelection chances is by looking at how he matches up with Mitt Romney in each state. When Obama and Romney are matched up on a state by state basis, guess what? Obama’s huge defeat becomes a huge victory.
For instance the Republican analysis has Obama losing Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, but a PPP poll released today found that President Obama is leading Mitt Romney, 49%-42%. Romney’s favorability rating in the state has fallen to 28%. In North Carolina, the latest PPP poll found that Obama leads Romney by 1 point, 46%-45. A December, a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania found Obama leading Romney, 46%-43%. The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida found Obama and Romney tied in Sunshine State, 45%-45%.
The Republican analysis had Mitt Romney getting 323 Electoral College delegates to Obama’s 215, but a January PPP state by state analysis of the head to head match up found the opposite. Obama finished with 337 Electoral College delegates compared to 195 for Mitt Romney.
Relying on an average of 2011 job approval numbers was not accurate way to project an Electoral College map. The general consensus is that if Obama wins any one of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina, he will win reelection. The snapshot of the national mood today suggests that Romney is trending down and Obama could be headed for a big reelection win, but we are still more than nine months out from Election Day.
With so much time before the election, it is foolish to predict any result with certainty, but Republicans see their frontrunner falling apart before their very eyes, so they are doing their best to try to convince America that Obama is heading for a major defeat.
They are living in a delusion, and now they are inventing Electoral College maps to provide themselves comfort in their unreality.
Image: Poz Blogs
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
I saw that right-wing electoral map and I knew it was rubbish as soon as I noticed that it showed Obama losing my own state, Oregon. There’s not a chance in Hell that that will happen.
Remember that the Dissocialists may be falsifying polls so that, when they Diebold the election results and “find” ballots, it looks legitimate. Also, watch out for economic sabotage, false flag incidents, massive Swiftboating, and faithless electors, which the Justitutes will make us accept.
There will be street riots.
There is no time to rest. We need keep pounding the hammer until the election is over. Take nothing for granted. With the machinery that is in place we don’t want to end up where we were in 2000, and we all know what the consequesnces of that were.
And, let’s vote most members of the House out and as many of the incumbent Senators running for re-election as we can….enough is enough is enough!
It is early as you note, but we also have to fight the gerrymandering that has occurred, and the Koch hate machine has not spun up in earnest yet either. If Florida is any example, Axelrod is going to have to have a good scheme to fight the negative ads from Romney
But lets remember Obama was the negative ad king in 2008. They know what to do with Mittens I am sure. And just think what a blessing it would be for the Grinch to run 3rd party! Holy parchesi!
We really really have to work on Congress. And I wont be happy until poll numbers for Obama are in the 60’s. 49 – 42 is embarrasssing
President Obama actually won by a landslide in 2008, according to exit polls; the (R) supporting electronic votes hadn’t been “tweaked” sufficiently to overcome the votes cast in his favor (though they gave it the old college try).
They won’t underestimate him again…. insist on HAND-COUNTED PAPER BALLOTS, WITH PUBLIC OVERSIGHT and a SECURE CHAIN OF CUSTODY.
Are the teapubs in denial?
It is reassuring to read that the President’s polling numbers are polling upward and that the other commentors are all in such fine fettle.
Generally at this point in the election, one would enter a caveat beginning, “barring a foreign policy crisis,” but President Obama has shown such deftness and strength in foreign policy that such an event might well push the GOP candidate right off the stage.
As the less political voters begin focussing on the election and weighing in it is highly likely that the President’s approval numbers will continue to rise.
There is reason for confidence, but no reason for respite. Democratic voters must still be contacted, motivated and brought to the polls in November. If we start thinking this thing is in the bag, we might find ourselves rudely shocked on November 7th.
People will die if the repubs pull another Bush 2000.
I can tell you now that America won’t stand for it and heads will roll. Literally.