As Voters Come Home To Obama, 2012 Begins To Look A Lot Like 2008

2008 electoral map

A comparison of recent polls in Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia with 2008 polling shows that voters who supported President Obama last time are starting to come back home to him in 2012.

The Quinnipac Poll revealed a five point jump for President Obama over the past month in the state. In December, Romney narrowly led Obama 44%-42%. In the past month the Republican frontrunner (sort of) has gained one point in the state while Obama swung into the lead. The partisan split in the vote is high. Eighty five percent of Republicans support Romney and ninety three percent of Democrats support Obama, but the big shift towards Obama has been with two groups of voters.

While Romney has stayed at a flat 41%, President Obama gained four points and now leads with Independents, 45%-41%. The biggest swing for Obama has come with women. Romney led Obama among women, 45%-43% in December, but this month the president gained seven points, while Romney lost two, and took a 52%-40% lead.

The race in Virginia between Obama and Romney is starting to look a lot like the 2008 battle for the state between Obama and McCain. Days before the 2008 election Obama led McCain 50%-46%. Obama led McCain with women, 53%-44%. Currently, Obama leads Romney with women 52%-40%. In 2008, McCain led with white voters 57%-40%. In 2012, Romney has improved on McCain’s support with white voters by one point, 54%-36%. Obama’s support among African-Americans in the state has actually grown three points since 2008. Obama has gone from 88% support to 91% support. In 2008, McCain led Obama with 45%-44% Independents, while Obama leads Romney 45%-41% with this same category.

In Michigan Obama’s lead over Romney
(48%-40%) is much smaller than his lead over McCain was (55%-37%), but the trend with Independents is the same. In the weeks before the 2008 election in Michigan, President Obama led with Independents, 52%-35%. In 2012, Obama has rebounded in the past month to hold a 42%-32% lead with Independents over Mitt Romney. In Ohio some of the same trends are just beginning to emerge as Obama went from a two point lead over Romney (44%-42%) in mid-January to a seven point lead by early February (49%-42%).

Whether it is in Ohio, Michigan, or Virginia, the 2012 race between Obama and Romney is starting to look a lot like the 2008 contest between Obama and McCain. Republicans need a nominee who can shift Independents into their column, and improve upon McCain’s performance with young voters and women. Instead, what they may end up with is a weaker version of John McCain.

The combination of an improving economy, a bruising Republican primary, and Mitt Romney’s own lack of appeal as a candidate have likely all contributed to Obama’s turn around. It is only February, but this is a trend that bears watching. If 2012 state level polling data continues to mirror 2008, then President Obama should face very little difficulty winning a second term.

11 Replies to “As Voters Come Home To Obama, 2012 Begins To Look A Lot Like 2008”

  1. Watch out for Diebold, false- flag downballot candidates, Palm Beach ballots, and faithless electors. They don’t mean to lose this one, and if they win it, they mean to make sure all future elections of any importance are “pageants”.

  2. This is good news, but definitely not a reason for complacency. The Party of No is famous for all kinds of dirty tricks in voter fraud, and equally famous for projecting their chicanery onto others.

  3. agreed…. the GOP war on voting is going to have an effect too..all the dirty tricks, sortage of machines in heavily minority distrticts, shortend hours for for early voting, dicriminitory voter ID bills.. ass scare the hell out of me..add to that the the unrelieable machines themselves.. all could make for a repeat of Florida in 2000, in any number of states

  4. As a democrat, it is still embarrassing that Obama is that close to Romney. However the GOP has lots of time left to make more complete and utter fools of themselves to their own followers.

  5. I’m a voter who never left home, but I’ll break out the fatted calf for those who wandered in their wilderness of discontent. Welcome home. We need your help. The GOP zombies are massing for attack…..

  6. I left the Democratic Party not because of Obama,who I ardently supported, but because the Democrats torpedoed the candidacy of Howard Dean. I’ve since been an Independent liberal who is proud to support Obama and tremendously amused at watching the Republicans tear themselves apart. To those ‘pundits’ who are starting to say that Obama has peaked too soon, I say, that’s pretty irrelevant since the GOP can’t take their eyes off of each other. LOL

  7. PLEASE EVERYONE – don’t take this to mean we can rest – we have so much work to do!! In Florida the GOP veto-proof majority has made voting so much more difficult for students and the poor – they took away the Sunday before the election early voting knowing that was best day for working people to vote. They changed law and now someone who was in prison but has paid their debt to society and has served their time now has to wait at least 5 YEARS before they get their right to vote back – guess which party that hurts? All the changes were made to lower number of votes which helps the GOP – disgusting right?

  8. Just keep letting the republicans tear themsleves apart. Just sit back and enjoy it. To all the dem work hard but lets enjoy this spectcale of the republican primary. It is so funny. The best man to beat Obama can barley win Maine. You see there is a huge selection of Right wing neo nazis. But that is all. You have the self respecting republicnas who are in the middle the older type John Mcain. Mitt romney no wants them. Independts will vote democractic and so will we the democracts. It will be a riot just watch and see and please to all the make a lie wishes. The republicans want to keep saying do me a favor please keep spilling your spew all over the news. It is so freaking funny. None of it is true and if any self respecting republicans have some real facts about Obama that are true not based in what you want and whould could be or is precived. Some real hardcore evidence please fill free to leave at my email pv Becouse i can guarantee that the messages i will get will be ugly cussing and downright preverted. I guarntee you no republican has any hard core facts to tell why or how Obama is a bad president just plain old fashind junk. So to my democratic friends just stand by and watch the republicans tear there heads off it is so funny. And by the way i do like some republcians the ones that arent pshyco.

Comments are closed.