New Georgia Poll: Presidential Race Tied Among Early Voters

Is the once bright red state of Georgia trending blue? According to  recent polling and voter registration statistics, the answer is yes.

According to a just-released  20/20 Insight survey for Better Georgia, among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie. The survey, conducted October 30-31, asked voters their opinions in the election for President, 12th District Congressman (Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. Lee Anderson (R)), and other key state-level races and ballot issues.

According to Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), this year, for the first time in history, white voters will comprise less that 60% of active, registered voters in Georgia. A more diverse electorate tends to be more progressive, as illustrated in the results of the survey released today.

Here’s a snapshot of other results:

PRESIDENT

Despite a minimal investment in Georgia from either campaign, President Obama appears to be positioned to exceed expectations in the Peach State on election day. For President, 52 percent of respondents supported Mitt Romney (R), 46 percent supported Barack Obama (D) and 2 percent were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. Among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie – Barack Obama gets 49 percent and Mitt Romney gets 50 percent. (1,316 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.7%)

12th DISTRICT CONGRESSMAN

Among those surveyed, Rep. John Barrow, the last white Democratic Congressman in the Deep South, is leading his Republican challenger, Lee Anderson. 50 percent of respondents supported Barrow (D), while 44 percent supported Anderson (R), and 6 percent were undecided. Barrow is leading by 6 percentage points in a district that Obama is losing by 11 percentage points. (450 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 4.6 percent)

REPRODUCTIVE CHOICE

The majority of respondents, 52 percent, agreed that abortion is a choice that usually should be left to the pregnant woman to decide. Fully 90% of respondents agreed that there were some circumstances where abortion should be allowed. Only 6% believed abortion should never be permitted. Obviously, this does not bode well for the chances of getting Georgia voters to support the promised “personhood amendment” and shows that the Republican majority is out of touch with the electorate on this bellwether issue. (1,316 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.7%)

What does this mean going forward? While Mitt Romney will carry the state on Tuesday, the Republicans who now occupy every stateside office in Georgia should not bolt their furniture to the floor just yet. Georgia progressives are rapidly building the infrastructure needed to take advantage of Georgia’s emerging progressive electorate.   There is work to do, no doubt, but in the not-too-distant future, signs point to a Georgia that is not red or purple, but instead, bright blue.

Amy Morton

Amy Morton is Chair of Better Georgia, Inc. and a 20 year veteran of progressive politics in the Peach State. She previously chaired Georgia’s WIN List, was Vice Chair of Victory 2010, the Coordinated Campaign of the Democratic Party of Georgia and has consulted on multiple candidates and independent committees. A North Carolina native, Amy is a licensed marriage and family therapist and has her own practice in Macon, Georgia where she has lived for the last 28 years.