Poll Finds That Republicans Are In Danger of Losing The House Over Government Shutdown

A new PPP poll looked at 24 House districts held by Republicans, and since the government shutdown 21 of them now have generic Democratic candidates leading.

PPP found that, “The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.”

The districts, with the exception of one, all had something in common. They were seats held by Republicans in states that were won by President Obama in 2012. This poll strikes right at the heart of the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering will keep House Republicans safe no matter what they do.

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As Robert Costa pointed out in The Washington Post, there are more centrist Republicans in the House than you might think. Costa wrote, “They may sometimes be silent and fearful of stirring conservative ire, but more than 100 members of the House GOP are much more centrist than you’d imagine. These are the members from purple and light-red districts, who rarely go on television and, unlike their more unruly colleagues, stick with the leadership. They are critical to sustaining Boehner’s power, and, should the GOP find a way to extend the debt limit and once again fund the government, they’ll deserve credit”

Those 100 House Republicans in blue or purple states all are their seats put in jeopardy by the behavior of their Republican colleagues who reside in safe red districts. House Republicans are being widely blamed for the shutdown. John Boehner continues to refuse to open the government, and raise the debt limit. Boehner and the extremists that he is listening to are still making demands as if they are in charge of the situation.

The House Republicans who are following Ted Cruz have put themselves in a position for defeat by not facing reality. They think that they will “win” by getting the president and Senate Democrats to cave to their threats. Cruz and his House Republicans really believe that they can get the country to blame President Obama for the shutdown and any potential default.

What they don’t understand is that the country has been watching House Republicans threaten and obstruct for years. They already know who is to blame. The moderate House Republicans are trying to save their own hides by floating anonymous proposals in the media for a short term funding and raising of the debt ceiling.

John Boehner’s refusal to hold a clean vote on a CR and the debt limit could hand Democrats back control of the House of Representatives. Obamacare isn’t going anywhere, but scores of House Republicans could find themselves out of a job after November 2014.

Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association