Georgia May Turn Blue and Democrat Jason Carter Leads Gov. Nathan Deal

Georgia Democratic candidate for governor Jason Carter
Georgia Democratic candidate for governor Jason Carter

A new Insider Advantage poll of the state has found that Democratic candidate Jason Carter is leading Republican Gov. Nathan Deal, 41%-38%.

Insider Advantage Georgia notes that the margin is within the poll’s 4.3% margin of error, so the race is technically tied. This was the fourth time they polled this contest, and each poll has been close.

Georgia is changing. The Center For American Progress describes the demographic shifts in the state:

In the last decade, Georgia had a rapid rate of increase in its minority population, going from 37 to 44 percent minority over the time period. The increase in the minority population accounted for 81 percent of Georgia’s growth over the decade. Unusually, the biggest contributor to minority growth came from blacks, who alone accounted for 39 percent of Georgia’s growth. The next largest contributor was Hispanics, whose numbers increased at a scorching 96 percent pace and accounted for 26 percent of the state’s growth.

By 2020, along with Nevada and Maryland, Georgia is almost certain to join the ranks of majority-minority states. These ongoing shifts should continue to move Georgia in a more competitive direction.

Texas has more white Democratic support, but Georgia is expected to flip back to the Democratic column before Texas does. Anyone who looks at the demographic shift in Georgia can clearly see that the state is slipping away from the Republican Party.

Most experts believed that Georgia wouldn’t change until 2016 or 2020, but with the rise of the next generation of Democratic leaders (Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter are just two examples), it’s clear that Democrats could pick up both the governor’s mansion and a U.S. Senate seat in the state.

The grandson of former president Jimmy Carter is given Nathan Deal all he can handle. The corruption that dogged Deal as a member of Congress has followed him home to Georgia, as the FBI is currently investigating an ethics scandal close to the governor. Deal’s complete incompetence, along with his birther views, have combined to make him a very vulnerable governor.

The national prognosticators who have Republicans easily taking control of the Senate hinge their predictions on two things that may not happen. They assume that Mitch McConnell will win in Kentucky, and Republicans will keep control of the retiring Saxby Chambliss’s Senate seat. It looking more possible for Democrats to win both of these elections.

Instead of waiting until 2016 or 2020 to turn Georgia blue, Democrats have the ability to make the future be now by winning two key elections this year.

The future is arriving, and Democrats have the power to take a big step towards turning Georgia blue in 2014.

11 Replies to “Georgia May Turn Blue and Democrat Jason Carter Leads Gov. Nathan Deal”

  1. This is great news, but I will be happy only when Jason Carter’s victory is an irreversibly done deal. It’s long past time that Americans everywhere rejected the nihilistic, backward ideology of the GOP/TP.

  2. Jason Carter has name recognition, and would make a far better governor for the people of Georgia than the incompetent Nathan Deal. Of course the Koch Brothers and their billions of dollars will be at play here. The Democrats must present the sharp differences in the policies of the 2 parties.

  3. I dont get it. Getting rid of Deal should be a no brainer. Even if its with another tea thug. A dem would certainly be nice, but come on Georgia, please learn to think

  4. here is a bill that the right even think deal is damaged goods. right now the gov can expand medicaide in ga,they introduced a bill to put that in the legislature from the gov.nunn is ahead of all the right wing and esp the tparty nuts.what people forget is that till recently ga was blue every state office was a dem,they got the house and ‘redistricted’ themselves into control than also passed an id law, but at the time you could get an id at an state patrol office that has since changed to id centers which number like 12 in the state.instead of 30 miles you may have to go 50-60 miles to get an id and wait in long lines.you cannot even renew on line.

  5. Funny that the Pollsters don’t mention that the Northerners from BLUE states are moving to the South, and that adds to the states turning BLUE.

  6. Would like to again point out that Michelle Nunn is the anointed candidate of the Dem establishment in Georgia but she is not the nominee. There are three other candidates running for the seat being vacated by Saxby Chambliss. Two are pretty much on an ego trip but Branko Radulovachi, M.D. (Dr Rad), who announced his candidacy before Nunn and has much greater appeal to the base, is struggling against all of the money Nunn has been able to raise – much of it from Republicans. Still he is gaining ground with party activists and if the base turns out (always a huge question when it comes to the left) could end up the nominee.

  7. It ios very likely that Democrats could win BOTH races in 2014 in Georgia, however overall Senate races, I don’t see them winning BOTH Kentucky and Georgia. They will win 1 of them probably Georgia. The Democrat in Kentucky started off strong but she has really floundered and might not make it back. As for Georiga this could be the Democrat’s 2002, then you had an arrogant Governor Roy Barnes who no one liked and the disliking led to other races going GOP, Deal could be defeated this year, another thing to while they probably WON’T gain the state legislature now or any time in the future look for the Democrats to make gains in both bodies. One thing to remember, Georgia like all the other Southern States is NOT a liberal state. While things do look good for Democrats this year in the state, if a Democrat is going to win in the state, they have to be Conservative to Moderate. Going liberal will get you defeated for sure. Odds are great Hillary won’t win the state in 2016 or 2020.

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