In a poll released by McClatchy/Marist on Tuesday, 48% of registered voters stated that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress this November. This contrasts with 42% of registered voters who said they’d go for the Republican candidate. 4% claimed they’d vote for an independent or third party candidate while 6% said that they’re undecided. Obviously, both Democrats and Republicans favored their own party heavily. 90% of Democrats said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate, while 94% of Republicans favored someone from the GOP. What the poll did reveal is that Democrats have a slight edge with independents, as 43% said they’d go for the Democratic candidate over 40% who would vote for a Republican. Also, Democrats have an 18-point advantage with moderates, with 53% favoring Democrats against 35% who favor the GOP. Regionally, Democrats hold an edge everywhere but in the Midwest. Even in the South, Democrats are up by one point, 46-45. In the Northeast, Democrats hold a huge 20-point advantage, 56-36. Dems also have a pretty large lead in the West, as 49% prefer a Democratic candidate as opposed to 41% who like the GOP. Even in the Midwest, the GOP’s advantage isn’t large, as they hold a two-point lead with 13% either undecided or favoring neither party. Now, this doesn’t say that the Democrats are primed to take over the House in November. As we all know, it isn’t one large national election, but rather hundreds of local and regional elections. On top of that, the vast majority of Congressional districts will not have competitive elections, as they are drawn up in such a way to favor one party heavily over the other. Still, there are roughly 25-30 truly competitive House races this year, with another 20 or so that could become interesting. Democrats need to flip 17 seats to take over the House of Representatives in November. It will be tough, but not impossible. With this most recent poll, we see that there is an appetite among the electorate to get rid of the House Republicans that have gummed up the works since taking over the House after the 2010 midterms.
Justin Baragona is the Managing Editor at Politicus Sports as well as Senior Editor at PoliticusUSA. He was a political writer for 411Mania.com before joining PoliticusUSA. Politically, Justin considers himself a liberal but also a realist and pragmatist. Currently, Justin lives in St. Louis, MO and is married. Besides writing, he also runs his own business after spending a number of years in the corporate world. You can follow Justin on Twitter either with his personal handle (@justinbaragona) or the Sports site’s (@PoliticusSports).