The latest New York Times projection show Republican odds of capturing the Senate are declining, and that the Democrats may keep control of the US Senate.
The NY Times’ latest projection found that things are looking better for Democrats:
Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.
The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.
It should be noted that the Times gives Republicans an over 70% chance of keeping their Senate seats in Georgia (73%) and Kentucky (79%). This projection isn’t matching up well with what appears to be happening in each state. In both Kentucky and Georgia, it looks like Democrats have at least a 50/50 chance of taking one or both of those seats.
If one listens to the mainstream media, or talking heads on cable news, it is possible to come away with the impression that the Republican takeover of the Senate is a done deal, but this based more on opinion than reality. The only people who should be shocked if Democrats keep control of the Senate will be Republicans, who are again convincing themselves that they are sure to win, and the talking head pundits on television.
Democrats are facing a tough landscape, but they also possess superior candidates and organization.
The missing puzzle piece for Democrats in midterms has always been turnout. If they get even a reasonable turnout, Mitch McConnell’s dream of being majority leader will be crushed and denied.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association