Democratic Odds of Keeping The Senate Are Improving Every Single Day


The latest New York Times projection show Republican odds of capturing the Senate are declining, and that the Democrats may keep control of the US Senate.

The NY Times’ latest projection found that things are looking better for Democrats:

Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.

The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

It should be noted that the Times gives Republicans an over 70% chance of keeping their Senate seats in Georgia (73%) and Kentucky (79%). This projection isn’t matching up well with what appears to be happening in each state. In both Kentucky and Georgia, it looks like Democrats have at least a 50/50 chance of taking one or both of those seats.

If one listens to the mainstream media, or talking heads on cable news, it is possible to come away with the impression that the Republican takeover of the Senate is a done deal, but this based more on opinion than reality. The only people who should be shocked if Democrats keep control of the Senate will be Republicans, who are again convincing themselves that they are sure to win, and the talking head pundits on television.

Democrats are facing a tough landscape, but they also possess superior candidates and organization.

The missing puzzle piece for Democrats in midterms has always been turnout. If they get even a reasonable turnout, Mitch McConnell’s dream of being majority leader will be crushed and denied.

13 Replies to “Democratic Odds of Keeping The Senate Are Improving Every Single Day”

  1. The people of the US will learn a horrifying lesson if the republicans take the Senate and the House. With a Dem President nothing will go anywhere and the country will be given to the 1%.

    And the odds of rectifying the mistake will be very low. There will be voting laws that will exclude large numbers of people. This is what we face. And those who vote republican will find their vote is no longer needed

  2. I think the Dems have one other advantage and that is the in fighting in the republican party. The mainstreams are spending money and time just to fight the teasters off. Hopefully as time goes by it will be a melt down.

    YES we all need to vote. Recruit others to vote. Get to the polls early and load up the vote.

  3. When President Obama ran on YES WE CAN he was counting on our support to make it happen. He needs us to follow through on our commitment to help him run the country. We can do it be voting…Don’t let the country down vote like your life depended on it!

  4. The Republicans were counting on gutting ACA. Now that it looks more secure, Democrats can brag about it.

  5. This is great news. We need to keep the senate and win back the house. Then, the senate democrats can use filibuster reform to pass laws that are needed. I was reading in an article that the democratic party plans to do a presidential style campaign for the midterms. We must GOTV 2014. I hope this year, Texas and Georgia become finally blue.

  6. Way out here in flyover red state South Dakota former Republican governor Mike Rounds is being called the front runner in a a 5 man Republican primary.

    He will likely by elected if the media does not report the scandal he embroiled in.

    There is nearly $170 million missing from what is being called the GOED/EB-5/Northern Beef Packers scandal. Rounds was governor when over 50 Chinese investors paid in excess of $500,000 each, only to have the packing plant go bankrupt and all that went poof.
    The feds are supposedly investigating, but there has been no reports.
    This is the senate seat currently held by Democrat Tim Johnson.

  7. If anyone is interested in reading more about the South Dakota scandal I referred to, go to

  8. It pisses me off that it is even in question that Democrats should win the Senate as Republicans have only further made themselves a bigger joke than they were a few years ago and have and would destroy our country even further by obstructing Pres Obama even more than they do now which is fucking insane since that is the one and only thing they do when not sucking Putin off . Nice work

  9. The damage to the country would be unthinkable if the republicans won the senate, the supreme court would probably get another Roberts, who has proved to be racist and in bed with the rich. We would also get attacks on the health care law which would weaken it, also we would for sure get the keystone pipeline and Ryan’s budget, what a terrible thought, $200.000.00 tax breaks for the rich while the rest pay $2000.00 more in taxes per year.
    It is a nightmare that I worry about all the time.

  10. I’ve been watching the infighting in the GOTP, and I think it’s building to a full scale internecine war.

    Certainly if we can hold the Senate, and I’m confident of that, and take the House by even one vote, their coalition will explode.

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