Politico’s Poll Showing Democrats In Trouble This Midterm Election Is a Total Crock

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This week, political news site Politico released a poll showing that Democrats are at a seven-point disadvantage against Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. The poll is supposed to reflect voter sentiments in the most competitive House and Senate races this year. For the House races, the poll shows that Democrats trail Republicans by 9 points, 39% -30%. As for the Senate, Republicans hold a seven-point advantage, 43% -36%. This poll seems to predict a gloomy outcome for the Democrats in November. It is certainly possible that Republicans can gain control of the Senate and retain their majority on the House. However, this poll is a total crock.

It is always important to look into the methodology used by a poll to see how credible it is. In this instance, the poll was tilted heavily in Republicans’ favor from the outset, creating the results that we see. The claim of the poll is to show ‘competitive’ House and Senate races, so the interviewees were only from those areas. Yet, the poll shows that 39% of the respondents are Republicans. 34% stated that they’re Democrats. Only 26% identified as independents. Compare this with the country at large, where 31% identify are registered with the Democratic Party, 25% identify as Republican and 42% claim to be independent.

Of course, this is supposed to reflect the ‘competitive’ races only, so we have to give some leeway here. It is quite possible that the districts and state with tight races have much a higher combined saturation of Republicans than the country as a whole. However, it also seems like additional methods were applied in this poll to get a more conservative favoring result. 49% of the respondents are 55 or older. In the last election, less than 42% of the voters were in that age bracket. Now, perhaps it is possible that in these districts and states, there is just a larger percentage of older voters than in the country as a whole.

Along racial demographics, this poll’s respondents are mostly white. While less than 64% of this country now identifies as being non-Hispanic white, 77% of those interviewed by Politico’s polling firm are white. Only 7% of those polled are Hispanic, despite Hispanics making up over 16% of the population now. Even when going based on likely voter percentages, it still provides a skewed total. Non-Hispanic whites represented less than 74% of the actual voters in the last election and 73% of the registered voters. Considering the efforts to get more Hispanics registered and engaged, it would seem like they are underrepresented in this poll. But, once again, it could just be the districts and states.

There’s another piece of data that strains the credibility of this poll. While we’ve already pointed out how the poll is skewed to represent old, white Republicans, it is possible that this is just what the data provides in these competitive races. However, when it is broken down by region, we see that 31% of the respondents are from the South Atlantic. However, this region represents only three of the 16 Senate races this poll is supposed to cover (Georgia, West Virginia, North Carolina) as well as eleven (four in Florida, one in Georgia, one in North Carolina, three in West Virginia, two in Virginia) of sixty House races. So, even though the South Atlantic only accounts for 18.75% of the competitive Senate races and 18.33% of the House races, Southern voters make up nearly one-third of the poll’s respondents.

Now, it could be that the combined population of the districts and states for the South Atlantic is greater than that of the other races they are polling, leading to the preponderance of Southern voters in this poll. However, when you combine all of these little outliers we see in this poll together, you get a very Republican-friendly result. Basically, you have a bunch of old, white, Southern voters who are still angry about Obamacare, despite the fact that the rest of the country has moved on (60% of respondents stated that we should still be debating the health care law, which is pretty much the opposite of what we’ve seen in recent nationwide polls.)

This poll’s greatest value is as a talking point for Republicans to try to discourage Democrats from voting in this year’s election. We saw a bit of that take place on Monday morning’s edition of Morning Joe:

 

 

Now, Democrats should not feel overly confident heading into the midterms this year. There is a real possibility that they can lose the Senate this year. Turnout is going to be key and Democrats need to energize voters so they come out in November. Having said that, they shouldn’t worry too much about a poll from a political website that seems like it was made in order to grab clicks and get pundits talking rather than for the purpose of legitimate data gathering.

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23 Replies to “Politico’s Poll Showing Democrats In Trouble This Midterm Election Is a Total Crock”

  1. I think that all this negative spin concerning the Dems chances are just and only that, Negative spin constructed of wishful thinking on the Reich Wings part. The Reich Wing knows they are in trouble so they have decided to call the elections months in advance to attempt to discourage voters from standing up to their insanity. They have plenty of time to say stupid things and they will not disappoint.

  2. Democrats won in 2012 and 2013 with the same naysayers. People Stay Focused, get out in Full Force to Vote during the Midterm elections Nov. 4, 2014. Shutdown the Republican Con Party. Vote in Full Force because it’s harder for GOP to steal the elections by making up groups of people who voted for them, i.e. evangelical.. The corporate media keeps reporting crap because politics are perceptions and I’m sure they’re getting kick backs as confirmed during Bush Years. Republican party are a train wreck of Con Artist who border on Treason to Insanity.

  3. Just love the new profile picture for Curley, Moe and Larry. All media pundits lean on past history to show that the IN party suffers at mid-term.

    Perhaps.

    But polling numbers should be a bit frightening for those on the (R).

    According to Gallup, 42% of Americans prefer Democrats ruling. That’s a terribly poor number. those on the (R) should be thrilled that the (D) aren’t polling higher at mid term.

    Except

    According to the same poll, only 36% prefer (R).

    As is stated, over and over, the party that shows up, wins. The problem with the (D) at mid-term will be to turn out the vote.

  4. When Congress’ approval is in the 11% range or somewhere in that percentage, how can people vote GOP? I just don’t get it. They have obstructed, suppressed votes, wasted more taxpayer money in the last 6 years, etc.

    Either the GOP is trying to psychologically doom the Dem voters, so that they stay home; or we have some really ignorant people that vote; or Koch will rig the voting machines so they are guaranteed a win no matter how slimy the GOP is.

    I will wait for the final results election night. Make sure everyone you know gets out to vote.

  5. North Carolina should be an example to the rest of the country. Democrats have a majority “IF” they vote in NC. But..GOP rules with a state majority because of wimpy democrat voting habits. The ACA is a huge success yet democrats up for re-election are afraid of their shadow to stand up and shout about the success. Medicaid is a disaster in NC yet you would never know it if you listen to the democratic officials.

  6. This is what the GOP always does.
    They LIE!
    Their own Party is quite used to
    their constant predictions of Doom &
    Gloom so that’s what they try to convey
    to Democrats as well.
    So they will tell us O! Dems have no
    chance. Don’t even bother Voting.
    Meanwhile, just in case, they try to
    rig the system in their favor. When their
    shady tactics were exposed, it had the
    opposite effect.
    We registered to Vote, we got in line,
    We stayed in line, & We WON!
    We need to do this now more than ever.
    We need to #RocktheVote

  7. Nicely done, Justin….I knew the Politico poll was a total crock of sh!t, but you showed us HOW it is.
    Here’s something I’ve been writing/saying for quite a while: MOST of the so-called “Liberal” media are owned and operated by GOP sympathizers who order their charges to employ the ridiculous “false equivalency” argument/meme. This is how the Fascist GOP “control” the media, in adherence to the “control of mass media” defining characteristic of Fascism.
    It’s obvious that we can’t trust ANY of the FRWNJ media (Fox “News”, Drudge Report, Daily Caller, all the usual suspects)..it’s up to the rest of the media to do what they’re supposed to do as Guardians of the Fourth Estate: get at and tell the truth, not engage in false equivalency or straight GOP propaganda.
    George Orwell once wrote something with which I can well relate: “the further a society drifts from the truth, the more they’ll hate those that speak it”….

  8. One think more, I just wrote to my (useless)rethug
    rep in NC – Burr.
    I asked him that when they start the Benghazi hearings, please make sure that the Lindsay Graham connection to the discredited film on Benghazi be
    investigated. So friends, please get in touch with your congress critters and bring back that subject because they hope it is lost under the rug.

  9. Turnout, turnout, turnout! And ignore the firebaggers. Meanwhile, I suspect some of these skewed polls are ordered in advance, to cover for election theft. The vigilence of Anonymous and like folk is also requested. The Rovian meltdown convinces me that their vigilance was instrumental in forestalling a reived reign of Romney.

  10. Republicans did the same false reporting in 2012 to encourage their base. However, what they ended up doing was shock and depress their whole party when Romney loss.

  11. I don’t give Politico the satisfaction of my clicks anymore. The National Enquirer of politics. I can’t stomach how low they go just to get eyeballs on their pages. Are they Con or Lib..who knows? My guess is Republican. Sometimes they have 2 articles contradicting each other on the same day. I hate Politico & put zero stock in their faux polls.

  12. Older, more conservative voters turn out for midterms. It’s a fact. There’d better be a better turn out the vote effort this midterm.

  13. It is my belief that the number of young voters that have been paying attention to the Republican obstructionism will vote Democrat in the upcoming midterms, and the number of young voters will be much higher than anyone expects.

  14. Didn’t they predict Romney would win? It completely mystifies me how people can still vote republican when they are against raising the minimum wage, cuts va benefits, wastes votes on Obamacare, only working 118 days this year and let’s not forget the government shutdown and has the nerve to blame Obama. The one thing I blame Obama for is giving in to the damn republicans like he did, but at least he’s starting to stand up to those a holes.

  15. I have also read that married women are more likely to vote republican. I really don’t get why any woman would vote republican.

    Aren’t they affected by the same obstruction as single women? And how can any self-respecting woman vote for a party that has spent the past 6 years trying to take away their rights?

  16. Lying republican liars lying republican lies, hateful, hate filled, hate mongering haters. When you have absolutely nothing for 99 percent of American citizens you lie. Politico, just another front for lying republican liars.

  17. You’re the same people who thought democrats would keep the house in 2010! Keep dreaming. Most polls, not just politico show the Republicans will win the Senate. You people supposed to be non racist, truthful, tolerant and not hateful but as I read the blogs, you’re the most intolerant, hateful liars and racist against Republicans and white people!
    Also, most democrats don’t trust the police and that’s fine but Obama’s creating a police state. You think the police are bad now, you haven’t seen nothing yet! A nightmare is coming with the Government having absolute power over you! Good luck!

  18. Now you are telling us that the KKk, the Tancredos, the minute man, the shaved heads, the “birtherists”” and the Joe Arpaios of america plus all of those calling names to our president because of his color are registered democrats?.I do not know if R will win or not, after all there are many people of any color voting againt their ow interest, stupidity do not know race.

  19. Yeah, I’ve been of the opinion for quite some time that Politico is a total crock. I don’t see how any progressive/liberal can give them any credence.

  20. I agree with the intent of your statement. But please allow me to point out that the phrasing is incorrect.

    Its not “vote Democrat”, rather “vote Democratic” (Party).

    An oft utilized wing nut tick is to purposely eliminate the last 2 letters, as those letters link the dual meaning of a democratic system of government and the Democratic Party. Wingers resent that symbolism.

    In other words, a person is a “Democrat” if when they registered to vote they listed their political affiliation with the Democratic Party.

    Whenever someone says “votes Democrat”, I ask them if they would alternatively say “votes Republic”.

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