2012’s Biggest Loser Karl Rove Confidently States GOP Will Overtake Senate In Midterms

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Karl Rove election night

 

In an article for the Wall Street Journal, Republican strategist and campaign funder Karl Rove wrote that the Republicans are all but assured of taking over the Senate following November’s midterm elections. Thursday’s piece, which is mostly just an assurance for Rove’s SuperPAC donors, claims that the American public is just ten weeks away from kicking Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) out as Majority Leader. However, when you look at Rove’s reasoning and methodology, you see nothing more than wishful thinking and willful blindness, all done to convince conservatives that were burnt by Rove’s promises in 2012 that this time they really will win.

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Rove addresses the fact that Republicans need to defeat at least three Democratic incumbent, something the GOP hasn’t done since 1980. Rove unimaginatively believes that President Obama’s somewhat middling approval ratings will be the death knell for Democrats in red or purple states, and voters will make a huge statement by voting for Republicans who represent change.

To regain Senate control, Republicans must defeat at least three incumbents, something they haven’t done since 1980 when they defeated 12. The most incumbents Republicans have knocked off since then are two each in 1994 and 2010.

Voters will replace Democratic incumbents when they are convinced they are too closely allied with Mr. Obama, and when the Republican alternative represents constructive change. Republicans should resist the temptation to focus exclusively on the former while neglecting the latter.

Rove also thinks that Obamacare will significantly hurt Democrats in the midterms due to insurance premium increases that will hit during the fall enrollment period.

Events will also put Mr. Obama front and center. Congress must soon approve a continuing resolution to fund the federal government. Republicans favor longer-term funding while Democrats want a shorter duration. On health care, while the administration has avoided another punishing round of policy cancellations by delaying provisions of the Affordable Care Act, it can’t stop ObamaCare premium increases that will hit in the next two months.

I think Rove is hoping for something that isn’t going to happen. Yes, it is predicted that insurance premiums will be slightly higher this year than last. That was always going to be the case. However, there isn’t going to be sticker shock. The Health Research Institute found a modest national increase of 7.5% earlier this month. That was done across 27 states and the District of Columbia. It is possible that the average national increase will be even lower after state insurance regulators take a look at insurance companies with the highest raises in premiums. Overall, it looks like the Republican predictions of spiraling health costs aren’t going to happen.

Rove finishes off his article by pinpointing six states where races will be determined by a couple of percentage points. He believes that Republicans will win at least three and as many as five of these races. Rove also feels that Democratic challenges to Republican-controlled seats in the states of Kentucky and Georgia will fall short.

Many races—like those in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina—will be settled by a couple of percentage points or even a few thousand votes. The election will come down to whether people want allies of Mr. Obama and Sen. Harry Reid returned to Washington—or whether Republicans can convince voters that they will govern, that they are more in touch with the middle class about changing Washington. and that they will better represent their state’s values.

Republicans seem to have three Democratic seats likely flipped—Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia—and while it won’t be pretty or overwhelming, three to five more seats look like they will fall the GOP’s way. If Republicans hold on to Kentucky and Georgia, as appears increasingly likely, that will be enough to kick out Harry Reid, install Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader, and rein in Mr. Obama during his last two years in office.

 

This seems too optimistic and is more wishful thinking than actual analysis. Sure, it is possible that the GOP will knock off most of the Democratic incumbents in competitive races while holding onto their own closely challenged seats, but that seems very unlikely. First off, if Rove hasn’t been paying attention, while Obama might not be overly popular among voters, he is far ahead of the GOP. And, quite frankly, so is the Democratic Party. It is almost insane to say, with all confidence, that an extremely unpopular political party will sweep through an election because Obama. Especially when that party is threatening another government shutdown, has been actively offensive towards Hispanics and blacks, and has gone out of its way to insult women, especially single women.

Then again, Rove isn’t one to deal with facts anymore. The one-time Bush’s Brain lost any and all credibility during the 2012 election when he spent hundreds of millions of donor money backing losing candidates. His Election Night flip-out will forever live in infamy. His prognostications should no longer be taken seriously. He is essentially Dick Morris now.

18 Replies to “2012’s Biggest Loser Karl Rove Confidently States GOP Will Overtake Senate In Midterms”

  1. Well, with voter suppression by the GOPT and voter machine sabotage, maybe that’s why Rove is so sure. IF the GOPT does win, it will be because they cheated, not because it was an honest win.

  2. Karl just throws out what he dreams of as true. Look at his track record, the man never uses facts to base his predictions on. He uses what he has been hired to do push TPGOP propaganda. His opinion is nothing more then that of a self glorified cheerleader.
    Hey Karl how is that President Romney prediction doing for ya?

  3. You cant make this stuff up. First turdblossom is confident the American Taliban will take the Senate and then there is what us saner people call reality

    A detailed report commissioned by two major Republican groups — including one backed by Karl Rove — paints a dismal picture for Republicans, concluding female voters view the party as “intolerant,” “lacking in compassion” and “stuck in the past.”
    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/gop-poll-of-women-party-stuck-in-past-110398.html

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  4. All this means is the Democrats will hold on to the Senate and when 2015 roll around, Grimes and Nunn will replace McConnell and Sax Chambliss or whatever his name is.

    Health insurance premiums increase every year, the difference is, the premiums won’t increase as much because of new competition from the AHA. That’s what happens when a new kid on the block enters a market. To stay competitive, premiums don’t increase as much.

    The AHA is wildly popular, even among Republican voter’s. So much so that Republican voters are now deciding to expand Medicaid. TPM has this article about the AHAhttp://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/gop-obamacare-2014-elections-no-mas.
    Roves donors will eventually stop donating to his PAC when they realize he’s wrong more than he’s right.

  5. I just don’t think that Republicans realize how much they have pissed people off. They really need to pop the bubble they exist in as it is only allowing them to become more delusional than ever.

    I know there are those died-in-the-wool right-wingers who will always toe the party line, but I believe there are fewer and fewer of them.

    While many people still aren’t paying attention to what is happening, I hope there are enough who are to make a difference on election day. We’ll see.

  6. When what Karl Rove predicts will happen DOES NOT! I predict we will NOT hear or see that man again around politics or FOXbait.

  7. Just always remember who he’s talking
    to, his audience. It’s Fox viewers that’s
    all. What I find most disturbing is
    the ease with which the talking heads
    over at Fox LIE…
    I mean, they just look into that camera
    and without a blink, without a second
    thought, LIE…
    It’s really up to US tho’. If WE
    @RockTheVote, We win….again. & if
    WE keep on Voting, WE will keep on
    winning. We don’t need no F’n WhiteBoards!!

  8. Willdy, I have to agree with you. The GOPT does not know anymore than we do who will win. (Another lie saying the will win). However, they can say they are cock sure they will win, in the hopes that it will dampen the enthusiasm of Dems and they won’t bother to vote.

    So, everyone NEEDS TO GET OUT AND VOTE BLUE.

    Our lives depend on it in 2014 because it does. If all Dems vote, we WIN. Don’t lose hope!

  9. He must have an awfully short memory because I (and many others here) remember his epic meltdown on Election Night two years ago when his pick of Romney winning blew up in his face pretty badly.

    Now he is predicting the Greedy Old Pissants will take the Senate. You know what that means? Democrats will keep control and Rove will have a coronary.

  10. I’m looking forward to watching Rove’s meltdown on election night this year. It should give as much enjoyment as his meltdown two years ago.

  11. Well, considering the dirty dealings, that that little, Pilsbury skank and closet queen rove and his PAC crowd, have tried to do to the democratic candidates this year, he might be on to something. Then again, he seems to miss the big picture most of the time…and it might come back to bite him on the……………..G-d I hate that man.

  12. Same Rove that had a meltdown when Ohio went for President Obama as he was waiting for Cleveland votes to be counted. Grew up in Ohio and Cleveland is not exactly GOP territory – just the opposite but Rove is so much smarter then anyone else. (sarcasm) If he told me the sky was blue I would go check. He puts out lies all the time and expects people to believe them but a lot of people have finally caught on that he is nothing but a jerk who thinks he is smarter then the world which is a joke. His political savvy is cheating and spending dark money to win. Just say no to Rove/GOP candidates on 4 Nov 2014!

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