Myth Busted: Republicans Wrong Again as Obamacare Premiums Set to Decrease in 2015

obamacare premiums


Republicans were hoping that some great Obamacare news would slip out on a Friday afternoon and go completely unnoticed by the media.


They thought wrong.


This afternoon the non-profit Kaiser Family Foundation released a report projecting premium increases for the 2015 year under the Affordable Care Act.  After years of double-digit increases, next year’s premiums will not only drop into single digits, but there will be an average decrease of premiums by roughly 0.8 percent.  Overall the trends are clear:  a few small states will show rate increases but large states, and more specifically large cities, are will show fairly small changes.  Since the small states tend to show higher variation, they also don’t affect the overall average very much so when all is said and done there’s a very realistic chance the overall premium levels will be close to zero.


As Mother Jones puts it, this result is “genuinely stunning.”


The result should be especially stunning for our Republican friends who have insisted for five years that Obamacare would be unable to support itself in the long run.  They deemed it a “death spiral” and insisted the program would be crushed under its own weight.  For five years, they’ve insisted that the program would be unsustainable in the long run, with a major reason being the fact that premiums would increase to levels that would be unaffordable for the average American.  In fact, as recently as May of this year, The Hill released a report stating that double-digit premium hikes were set to emerge for 2015.


Yet, despite these Chicken Little predictions, Obamacare has once again proven to be an unqualified success.


The reason for this is that Obamacare is doing exactly what it was intended to do.  Despite the repeated doomsday predictions Republicans have given us for the past five years, the law is not only not failing, but it’s achieving a remarkable string of successes that even proponents of the law did not see coming.  In fact, it’s doing so well that’s it has now entered what economist Paul Krugman has called a “life spiral.”  Krugman explains that good news continues to breed more and more good news because “the huge surge in enrollments late in the day meant that the risk pool this year is better than insurers expected, and they now expect 2015 to be better still.  Also, importantly, big enrollments mean that more insurers are entering the market, increasing competition.  And, of course, the better the deal, the more people will sign up: success feeds success.”


In other words, the exact opposite of what Republicans predicted would happen.


Perhaps Ezra Klein said it best today, when he wrote:


Imagine taking a time machine back to 2010 and telling Republicans in Congress, who were arguing that the CBO was wildly underestimating Obamacare’s cost, that the law would be cheaper than predicted and, at least in the states that accepted its Medicaid dollars, cover more people than the Congressional Budget Office thought. After the laughing and mocking and the calling of security, let’s say you offered this prediction in the form of a bet. What odds do you think Obamacare’s critics would have offered? 2:1? 5:1? 10:1?


As both Klein and Krugman point out, our Republican friends were dead wrong about the law.  Notice how little we have heard about the ACA the closer and closer we get to the mid-term elections.  Republicans bet the farm on opposing Obamacare and history will show that the entire party opposed a law that was the most significant piece of social legislation in a generation.  As more and more good news about the law continues to emerge, Republicans will do their best to pretend like they never opposed the law in the first place.  In fact, now Republican governors like Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett are expanding Medicaid, and there are a handful of other states whose Republican governors are also considering doing the same.  Governors like Rick Scott and Scott Walker, who openly denied their citizens Medicaid, are now facing the fight for their political lives.


Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to use Obamacare’s successes for the upcoming midterm elections.  As the good news continues to pour in, Democrats should hammer their opponents, and especially sitting members of Congress, for continually using fear and propaganda to deny their constituents health care.  For Democrats to win big in November, they need to continue to advocate for the people that the Affordable Care Act has helped the most:  The working class.  If Democrats can successfully appeal to this group and can honestly and openly say how Republicans continue to deny their fellow citizens health care out of political spite, then they should be able to successfully get people to the polls who are fed up with being consistently lied to and manipulated by the Republican Party.


If Democrats can do that, they will have made a compelling case for a blue House and Senate this fall.

31 Replies to “Myth Busted: Republicans Wrong Again as Obamacare Premiums Set to Decrease in 2015”

  1. Why is the village not reporting this I have no idea but I guess tan suits, golfing and now the horror of horrors walking around at Stonehenge is what needs to be reported. SMDH

  2. The effect of this announcement will be twofold: states that have refused to participate will now face enormous pressure to join the other ACA states, so they don’t become less competitive and as those states now enroll, the cost curve will be bent at an even more pronounced rate, which will force the remaining states to act, or risk flipping from red to blue, as voters make the change for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if this news flips a few more to pro-ACA before the election, with conservatives trying to muddy the waters, to no effect. They have staked everything on failure, and their failure is the irony of this coming election.

  3. I am not surprised. This is what happens when a new kid appears on the block. To stay competitive with the new competition, what happens? Prices fall.

    It can be insurance, cable, satellite, clothing, automobiles….a new competitor always causes prices to fall. I learned this in my Economic Class. More Republicans and Republican politicians need an Economic class. Their economic ideology sucks!!

  4. Dick Cheney said, “Pi$$ on ’em!” And, Ronald Reagan replied, “That’s a Great Idea. Let’s Call it ‘Trickle Down Economics!”

  5. Absolutely!
    My dear Mother was a waitress (server) all her life. I will always remember what should would say;

    ” A fast quarter beats a slow buck “.

  6. I support national health insurance for all. All people have a right to medical care totally at Government expense. You pay for this by moving the Earned Income tax credit into this program. There is a 30 per cent fraud rate now on it. The money saved on this by the IRS would fund it too. Also, eliminate the over head of Medicaid

    Owner CEL Financial Services

  7. I have a republican who posted a pic of Obama in which it stated that the economy has worsen under Obama. I told her to quit watching Fox, Obama inherited a $billion deficit from Bush.

    Of course, I had links to back up my statement. Then she posted a pic about all these investigations Issa has conducted, looking for a scandal. Again, I had to inform her that a Republican Committee found no wrong doing, and provided links.

    I suppose now she will visit the Daily Mail and post their absurd story about premiums going up 23%. Again, I will have to set her straight.

    At what point do the blinders come off and they realize the Republicans, Fox, Limbaugh’s & Co are lying to them?

  8. Republicans were hoping that some great Obamacare news would slip out on a Friday afternoon and go completely unnoticed by the media.

    They thought wrong.

  9. While I believe Obamacare is the greatest thing Obama ever did, and something we need to keep, just maybe tweak a little, I got to say that premiums were not at all what republicans meant by the cost and unsustainable nature of it.

  10. Sadly to say, I suspect, never. Many people prefer to stay low-info. Easier that way just keep repeating bs enough till you actually believe it. You just cant get the stupid out of some people. Propaganda works, even Hitler had fans.

  11. Rather disingenuous statement. Republicans have made several different predictions and rising premium costs were indeed one of the talking points.

  12. This should be pasted on every major newpaper and national news media channell.Instead on MarketWatch(conservative tilted business site)I saw a headline claiming why healthcare spending is about to go much higher. As of last night not one mention of this very good economic news on a major national business website. One would think perhaps after decades of spiraling healthcare cost a slowdown would be welcome news and be worthy of an article on a business economic themed site correct? This great news actually broke a few days ago I saw.

  13. It constantly amazes me that the Dems are so poor at championing the good news involving the party. The Reps are masters of spin and are relentless in their propaganda. Today I am able to have healthcare only because of the ACA! Red states whose governors have declined Medicare should face a backlash from those folks denied healthcare. These governors have no consciences, I don’t know how they sleep at night knowing they have denied healthcare to their fellow citizens. Truly greedy, craven, soul-less people!

  14. McConnell is now up in the polls, I cannot understand the people of Kentucky, McConnell boasts about repealing the ACA, do they think it will not apply to them?

  15. I would like to see this poll and look at the crosstabs. Remember the polls had rmoney ahead when reality said different. I always look at polls with a side eye because one, the village will release them to keep money flowing and two, prevent demoralization on the Republican side who needs to keep the volunteers active.

  16. Its because they hire idiots who have lost elections trying to appeal to some called middle ground. Even today Hillary is making mistakes by listening to these dolts.

  17. Read a piece a few weeks back that interviewed many low-income, low-info Kentucky whites that got coverage for the first time that don’t know that the ACA is “Obamacare.” They like the “new healthcare law,” but hate “Obamacare” and are voting republican “like I always do.” Anyone surprised?

  18. Don’t even get me started on it it’s one of the biggest embarassments about being white! These people honestly see things in term of race! they don’t realize WHITE (JUST LIKE THEM) RICH EXTREME UPPER class business men are SELLING OTHER WHITE’S Under the RIVER to China and India and the whole MYTH of Racial Solidarity on Economics is a Childish myth.

    I happen to be White myself and I find these Tea partiers who think they understand the government economics all of it to be Embarassing.

    Seriously. They actually think that just because Wall street Business men are White men in black suits they aren’t betraying them and would rather Blame An African american for their Economic downfall because they get to pin in on an outsider.

    it’s shameful to watch, I hear them moan and on about mexicans refusing to fly American flags and COMPLETELY Missing the point.

    “They won’t Learn engrish1” YES, WHAT’S YOUR POINT? Your jobs were NOT replaced by them but shipped OVERSEAS

  19. The end times are here. Bloody Bill Kristol was right for the first time ever
    “But the long-term political effects of a successful Clinton/Obama health care bill will be even worse — much worse. It will relegitimize middle-class dependence for ‘security’ on government spending and regulation. It will revive the reputation of the party that spends and regulates, the Democrats, as the generous protector of middle-class interests. And it will at the same time strike a punishing blow against Republican claims to defend the middle class by restraining government.”

    The 1993 Kristol Memo on Defeating Health Care Reform

  20. Just vote folks. Be prepared for the last 2 years of PBO’s term to be pure hell if the repubs win the Senate. It will be Impeachment in the House & the trial in the Senate. Very scary.

  21. Did you read it?
    “People buying individual health insurance on Nebraska’s Affordable Care Act marketplace will face premium increases next year ranging up to 23.4 percent, although some will see smaller increases or even lower rates.”

    Instability in the health insurance market, including a late decision last year to let people keep their old individual insurance policies if they wanted, contributed to the increase, insurance company officials said Thursday.

    “This is kind of a correction,” said Alicia Loftus, director of actuarial services for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Nebraska, which will raise its rates an average of 19.55 percent for policies that comply with the federal law, also known as Obamacare.

  22. It seems obvious that the companies have been raising rates at extreme rates since 2009 in the expectation that they would have to meet the 80% rule by 2014. They have simply overestimated their raises from last year, which is a wise decision if you are a business being hit by massive regulations. If you want to stay in business, you overestimate the monthly income you will need to cover the new costs.

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