Republicans Sweating As Democrats Hold Leads In Georgia’s Senate And Governor Races

michelle-nunn

 

All the talk of a Republican takeover of the US Senate after this year’s midterms may have been a bit premature as a new poll in Georgia shows that Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn holds a three-point lead over Republican nominee David Perdue for Georgia’s open Senate seat. The seat is currently held by retiring Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss. The poll, conducted by Landmark Communications, has Nunn up on Perdue, 46% to 43%. The poll’s margin of error is 2.9%, so Nunn’s lead is razor-thin. However, considering that Georgia is a deep-red state, it has to be extremely disheartening for Republicans to see themselves down in a race where they’d normally be holding a comfortable lead.

The GOP is also taking its lumps in the race for governor. Incumbent Governor Nathan Deal is currently trailing his Democratic opponent, State Senator Jason Carter. Like Nunn, Carter is the beneficiary of a famous last name. While Nunn is the daughter of former US Senator Sam Nunn, Carter’s grandfather is Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States. The poll shows Carter leads Deal by three points, 47% to 44%. With Deal dealing with an ethics investigation, along with general voter dissatisfaction over his policies, trend lines seem to be pointing in a Democratic direction.

For both Nunn and Carter, their path to victory lies with women, African-Americans and independent voters. If they can energize these bases and have them show up on Election Day, then both candidates should have no problem pulling out victories. Both Carter and Nunn hold commanding leads with all three voter groups. When it comes to black voters, Nunn leads Perdue by a whopping 74 points while Carter is up on Deal, 79% to 12%. Women favor Nunn by 13 points while Carter is up by 15 points over Deal. Independents prefer Nunn over Perdue by a nearly 20-point margin while Carter holds a 19-point lead over Deal.

Republicans need to flip six Democratic Senate seats in order to grab the majority this year. Currently, it seems all but a given that Democrats will lose three seats that they currently control (South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana) as retirements/resignations in these red states have opened the door for Republicans to swoop in and grab them up. With that considered, the GOP only needs to pick up three other seats while not losing any of theirs. With so many competitive races and Democrats being forced to defend so many seats, the odds seemed stacked against the Dems. However, Republicans are now seeing that they are vulnerable in three states (Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas) and could lose any or all of them, making it increasingly difficult to overtake the Senate.

While Democrats are still extremely vulnerable this November and the GOP has a very good shot at taking over the Senate, conditions are looking more and more favorable for Democrats. Democratic incumbents and candidates in swing states are starting to pull away from their opponents, especially as many GOP candidates are revealing themselves to be extremists with far-right agendas that are putting off voters.

15 Replies to “Republicans Sweating As Democrats Hold Leads In Georgia’s Senate And Governor Races”

  1. I’ve always thought it “a bit premature.” Maybe I’m an optimist, but I always knew Democrats would keep control of the Senate. The GOP have, pardon my French, fucked over the majority of the voting demographics in this country and they are angry and GOTV!

    The Republicans are getting exactly what they deserve! It is insane to think you can win elections with only heterosexual, male WASP! It’s 2014, not 1914, or even 1814!

    I am thinking about watching Fox to watch Rove and company to watch them go into cardiac arrest when they don’t get control of the Senate, and hopefully loose control of the House!

    Then, baffled that they lost, watch the RWNJ’S have a tantrum cuz they lost, and the GOP will issue another report examining why they lost, again, only to ignore the report, again, and use the same strategy in 2016 during the Presidential race, to loose, again, cuz they live in a fantasy world, not the real world. Real world will always win.

  2. As a Georgia resident (New Yorker by birth)

    I will have to hold my nose to vote for Carter and Nunn.

    As a State Senator, Carter voted for the guns everywhere bill, now law and Nunn came out in favor of it.

    Ugh.

  3. I do not understand how with the actions of the Republicans in the past six years,, how anyone could consider putting them into any positions of power. This has to be one of the saddest commentaries on the American mentality that you can find.

    I think most of this predicting who will take over the Senate is probably more than likely just people trying to get the troops out the vote.

  4. Could be campaign strategies. With a Democratic governor, he can overturn the bill if enough Dems jump on board. Same with Nunn.These Dems inbred states have to at times vote with the gop on various issues to keep their seats.

    Moving to the deep south must have been a culture shock for you!

  5. A lot of Georgia Farmers are upset with the far right, extreme tactics of the Republicans, they rely on help and many were left with crops rotting in the fields and no one to pick, farmers also know, culturally, the people being maligned don’t always deserve the flak. I think a strong male Republican vote for Nunn and Carter has a lot to do with farmers

  6. Shiva, I agree. It just really is dismal to think that after all the crap the GOP has done, over and over, and still threatening to do, that these races are even so close.

    I will not make any predictions until election night. The GOP will resort to any tactic to win.

  7. don’t discount the youth vote. those who are newly eligible to participate in the election, as well as those who’ve come into their early 20s, represent an enormous and surprisingly powerful constituency. and they are much more likely to embrace liberal ethics — tolerance, diversity, equality, human rights, social responsibility, and environmental stewardship — than any of the old white men who are losing steam right … about … NOW.

  8. During the 2008 presidential election I was visiting family down in Georgia. I was absolutely shocked when McCain won Georgia by such a large percentage. Georgia Democrats showed up to vote that November day in huge numbers. I saw lines of people waiting to vote as long as a football field at multiple polls. Obviously Black Americans showed up in Georgia in huge numbers to vote for Obama. And yet the official tally showed McCain won in a landslide in Georgia. Till this day I wonder if something funny happened with the vote that day in 2008. Anyone hear of funny business in Georgia back in 2008.

  9. I am a transplanted Michiganian. Carter voted for guns because it’s Georgia. He had to otherwise he wouldn’t have gotten anywhere. He did try to write in some compromises but this is crazy Georgia.

  10. Yes our Georgia voting is a crooked as a snake. Many minorities and Democratic leaning areas didn’t have their votes counted.

    I am a middle aged white woman who has never lived overseas and has voted in every election. My right to vote here in Georgia is being taken away I suspect because of my political leanings (progressive)

    I moved about a year ago and have filed over 11 times for a change of address for voting and each and every time it gets lost in the system. I finally took the time to drive an hour away and sat in the office downtown until I could prove who I was. They have me down as an undocumented foreigner. I am a blue eyed blonde.

    I have my birth certificate, my passport, my first marriage and divorce documentation as well as my current marriage license. I was told to hire an attorney.

  11. The media frequently reports on right-wing and GOP voter suppression efforts, but they rarely (if ever) acknowledge the root cause, that is, Republicans do better when fewer people vote. This has become the driving force behind the GOP’s draconian voter ID laws and efforts to limit early voting, voter registration drives, and provisional ballot voting.

    Speaking more than thirty years ago at a right-wing conference in Dallas, Texas, Paul Weyrich set out the case for voter suppression and the anti-America right-wing and GOP are still acting on it to this day.

    “I don’t want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of people. They never have been from the beginning of our country, and they are not now. As a matter of fact our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”

    We must never forget this. Ever.

  12. Do not be fooled! Act as though Michelle Nunn is far behind! When she wins the race decisively is when we relax! Till then its full bore for her and all other Democrats running!

  13. There are a lot of us progressives in ga. We all must show up to vote…no matter what! A lot depends on these important midterms!

  14. I think that the main thing is that we can’t let Democrats lose the Senate. The Republican Party has screwed over this country and we’ve seen it in 2011.

    In 2009-2011, we’ve seen so much reform done, and from 2011-now, Republicans have done NOTHING of significant value to help the American people

    If Democrats don’t turn out the vote, we are just as guilty as the Republicans that did…Also, The New Georgia Project is under fire from the AG because they’re registering minority voters. Please spread the word on twitter and Facebook

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