Momentum Has Shifted With Two New Models Showing Democrats Favored To Keep The Senate

democrats favored to keep the senate

Momentum is shifting as the nation moves closer to Election Day. Two new models give Democrats a better than fifty percent chance of keeping control of the US Senate.

The Washington Post’s Election Lab model has Democrats as a 51% favorite to keep the Senate.

According to The Post, here is what changed,

* Colorado: On Aug. 27 — the last time I wrote a big piece on the model — Election Lab said Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning. Today he has a 94 percent chance.

* Iowa: Two weeks ago, the model gave state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) a 72 percent chance of winning. Today she has a 59 percent chance.

* Kansas: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts’s reelection race wasn’t even on the radar on Aug. 27. Today, Election Lab predicts that he has just a 68 percent chance of winning.

Princeton professor Charles Wang’s model gives Democrats a 70% chance of keeping control of the Senate.

While the modeling for presidential elections has come a long way, the same can’t be said for other lower profile contests. Models are only as good as the polling data that they are based on. Inaccurate polls will lead to inaccurate models, but what is clear is that momentum has shifted in the battle for control of the US Senate.

Republican candidates are greatly underperforming expectations in North Carolina, Michigan, Arkansas, and Iowa. The Republican Party was feeling good about their chances of defeating Democratic incumbents in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina, but it very possible that they could lose two or even all three elections.

The models all agree that Republicans will hold on to Senate seats in Kentucky and Georgia, however Democrats might not need to pick up a Republican controlled seat to keep the Senate. Models are an aggregate snapshot of the current electoral landscape. The picture can and will change in the weeks ahead. Momentum has shifted, as the Democratic bid to keep the Senate has gotten stronger.

17 Replies to “Momentum Has Shifted With Two New Models Showing Democrats Favored To Keep The Senate”

  1. I live in Illinois very near Kentucky and I don’t think I’m ready to concede to McConnell just yet. Grimes has been putting out some good ads lately and I think I’ll check back in a few weeks and see where she is them.

    I also believe that the history of midterm elections is going to be turned on its head this year. There is a lot more angst out here when it comes to right-wing policies than many pundits may realize.

  2. Of course momentum has shifted. The thought of this current band of GOP nut-balls, wackos and lunatics gaining more control over the Federal Government is a frightening scenario. Every Democrat and independent voter needs to vote to make sure that nightmare doesn’t happen.

  3. I don’t get where Republicans think they are going to take the House and Senate. From everyone I’ve spoken with including Republicans, Americans are fed up with this doing nothing Congress. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that not only will Democrats keep the Senate, but also take a few seats in the House. People have no more patience with them and are totally fed up with the gridlock the Republcians have created in Congress. The current GOP stinks to high heaven when it comes to governing. Are they so blind that they don’t even know America is fed up with their asses sitting in those seats and doing absolutely nothing since they took office? GRRRRR!!!!

  4. I like Grimes. She speaks like she knows what she is talking about. And she is not afraid of being out there fighting. I think she has a lot going for her.

    Let’s talk again after after the GOPTP shuts down the govt again.
    I was afraid voters would forget what a beating we took after the last fiasco.

  5. If Grimes can get McConnell to engage in Debates an people get a Gander of his 70some years of broken age to the Freshness of Grimes, she might have a chance! But then to if McConnell keeps ducking debates he’s called out to have with Grimes, that too could benefit her. She’s got some really great Ad’s an knows what she is talking about an old McConnell keeps trying to tie her into Obama an so far she has countered that really well saying she doesn’t always agree with Mr. Obama, an wants to do what is best for her state an if he does something she don’t feel is good for her state, she will buck him on it! So, she’s doing pretty good I think!

  6. I hope you are right Terry. Why anyone in their right mind would vote for Mitch McConnell is beyond me. Then again, I did say in their right mind, so…. It sure would be nice to rid the Senate of this useless filibustering baggage.

  7. There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell the GOP shut down the government before the midterm. That would be political suicide and they know it. Last year at this time during and immediately after the GOP shutdown their poll numbers tanked big time. Unfortunately it was short lived as the ACA website mess turned the polling numbers upside down literally within a month. President Obama and Democrats have not recovers since.

  8. I do hope the rosy future being seen is really the future. I however have this deep seated distrust of any republican (rethug). These people love power, will do anything to stay in power and everything to gain more. This includes any form needed to win the votes, like cheating. Cheating is nothing new to rethugs it’s something everyone of them own, in spades.

  9. With the Internet being a daily part of the vast majority of Americans’ lives, we turned history on its head when we elected then re-elected a Black man as our president with over 50% of the vote.

    We can turn conventional “wisdom” on its head by getting out the vote in these midterms the likes we have not seen. And I believe we will.

  10. Oh, they know, all right – they just don’t care, haven’t for years, and are depending on their tactics of fear-mongering, gerrymandering, and voter suppression to carry the day for them. They know that they have to obtain total control, and soon, because otherwise the ever-changing demographics of the electorate will eventually send them into extinction. fortunately, even if they somehow manage to pull off a Senate take-over, it will just be a bad two years of their ignorance (still not as bad as the Bush years), since the President can veto their more obvious evil, and they definitely will not have the votes for an override, and in the 2016 election they are more vulnerable than this cycle. I look to a Democrat wave starting this election and continuing into the future, and hopefully when that happens we can get some meaningful campaign finance reform going.

  11. “Unfortunately it was short lived”

    Are you saying that it was unfortunate that the shut-down was short-lived, because you agreed with it and wished it to continue, or are you saying it was unfortunate because if it was longer-lived it may have done the R’s more harm? And I’m also not sure what you meant by saying that “President Obama and Democrats have not recovers(sic) since” – the ACA is a big success, and the R’s are unable to use it as a weapon anymore.

  12. When the voters realize that this crop of Republican Congressmen/Senators are NOT doing their jobs, but instead complaining, whining, obfuscating and making life miserable for the President and the USA, also doing nothing to earn their tax payer checks! With a bunch of vacation days to boot. WTF? It is time to shove them out of the way or get rid of the chaff, give Democrats the House and the Senate, then, then we shall see how a Government is SUPPOSED to be run. Not by fear, spite, and uncompromising opposition.

  13. I live in Iowa. All of the latest polls have Braley (D Waterloo) with a slim lead over Ernst at this time. Ernst scares many Iowans with her gaffes and views on contraception, guns, social security, medicare, and war.

    The DSCC, NexGen, Planned Parenthood, and Braley himself actually have done a great job so far using soundbites of Ernat herself saying what she really thinks to attack her. Using footage from the Sarah Palin endorsement as well as painting Ernst as Palin in a Nat Guard uniform turned the tide.

    There are also ads with her saying that she owes her whole campaign to the Koch brothers. With the way the Kochs were ran out of the Coralville city elections last time as well, many Iowans are aware of the Koch brothers influence and don’t appreciate it.

    Ernst will still get her share but, if democrats get out to vote, Braley will have it in spite of the fact that he shares the ballot with Gov. Branstad (Braindead).

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