A new batch of polls from Fox News show that the momentum is definitely moving towards Democrats keeping the Senate, as Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas is in danger of losing his seat.
The Fox News poll of North Carolina shows Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan leading Thom Tillis 41%-36% with 6% supporting Libertarian Sean Hough. In Iowa, Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Jodi Ernst are tied at 41%. The bad news for Democrats comes in Louisiana where Sen. Mary Landrieu is trailing Republican Bill Cassidy 35%-31% in the four-way general election contest and 51%-38% in the potential runoff.
The bombshell race is in Kansas, when Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts is in danger of losing his seat. Since Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew from the race, Independent Greg Orman has continued to surge. With Taylor’s name still on the ballot, Roberts leads Orman 40%-38% with Taylor getting 11%. If Taylor’s name is not on the ballot, Orman leads Roberts 48%-42%. The Kansas State Supreme Court heard the case relating to Taylor’s name appearing on the ballot on Tuesday, and a decision is expected shortly.
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When even the Fox News polls are showing serious signs of Democratic momentum, Republicans have a big problem on their hands. Coming into 2014, Mitch McConnell thought that by late September he could start planning his agenda as Majority Leader, but things have not gone the GOP’s way. If Orman beats Roberts, Democrats will likely keep control of the Senate. Democratic incumbents in Arkansas and North Carolina continue to hold small leads. The Iowa Senate polls are over the map, but the average of all polls shows the Democrat with a small edge.
Despite putting most of their resources into the Senate contests, Republicans have not been able to expand the map. The momentum has shifted back to Democrats, with only the usual Republican leaning polls showing a rosy scenario for the GOP. While the mainstream media and pundits continue to insist that Democratic control of the Senate is doomed, the polling data is telling a different story.
The media and pundits claimed that Mitt Romney was in a position to win, when polling data was revealing the potential for Obama blowout in 2012. The media were wrong then, and they are going down the same path again. Democrats aren’t a lock to keep the Senate, but the needle is moving in their direction.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association