Democrats Shock the Media By Pulling Ahead in Several Key Senate Races

Obama-Smile-full-side

Monday morning’s headlines were full of good news for Democrats. Local polls are showing Democrats leading in several Senate races. This news shocks no one but the mainstream media, who can’t quit their addiction to bad polling methods even after the shame of 2012.

The Democrats rounded it up:

NEW KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS POLL SHOWS ALISON LUNDERGAN GRIMES LEADING MITCH MCCONNELL. The latest Kentucky Bluegrass poll shows Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Mitch McConnell 46-44. “Whereas the Aug. 28 poll, showing McConnell leading by 4 points, suggested he might be slowly pulling away from Grimes, ‘today, McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly.'”

NEW POLL: HAGAN LEADS TILLIS 44-40, HOLDS 19 POINT LEAD WITH WOMEN. The new NBC/Marist pollshows Kay Hagan leading Speaker Thom TIllis 44-40 and holding a 19 point lead with women including winning single women by a nearly 3 to 1 margin.

NEW YORK TIMES: COLORADO, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA & MICHIGAN MOVING TOWARDS DEMOCRATS. The NY Times reports on the new NY Times/YouGov polls that offers new data to question the “the conventional wisdom that Republicans have recently made substantial gains in Colorado and Iowa…. The new data offers some encouraging news for Democrats in Colorado and Iowa… the largest shifts were in North Carolina and Michigan — and to the advantage of Democrats.”

 

PoliticusUSA’s Jason Easley opined that the polls were flawed to James George of the Examiner in a story on Mitch McConnell’s possible felony  (my bold):

“The way the FEC process works means that it will probably be at least a year before anything else is heard about McConnell’s potential violations of campaign finance law. The reason why so many campaigns on both sides ignore the law is that these cases are settled long after the election is over. For example, the Bachmann/Paul case in Iowa is still rolling along more two years after the initial violations. On another note, the polling has been especially spotty this cycle. There have been polls that are all over the map. I wouldn’t trust the average of polls, or the polling models just yet. Since the margin of error in most of the Senate polling done 4 points, McConnell’s five-point average lead could be as high as eight or as low as a single point. The really lousy NBC/Marist poll, which was loaded methodical problems, has distorted the poll average for that election.

McConnell has all the advantages on paper and he should win, but the margin could be a lot closer than current polling indicates.”

 

Today Jason wrote for Politicus that the media has been ignoring the signs that McConnell is fading in Kentucky:

 The mainstream media have largely ignored them, but there have been signs that McConnell is fading in Kentucky for weeks. Last week, an internal poll from the Grimes campaign found that the Democrat was leading Sen. McConnell 42%-40%. The poll was significant because it was based on the largest sample size used in Kentucky this year. A huge red flag for McConnell is that his unfavorable rating remains at 58%. Sen. McConnell’s net job approval rating was (-21), while Alison Lundergan Grimes had a net approval rating of (+1).

 

Polls are only part of the picture. Once again, Democrats put their faith in ground work. It worked for Obama twice, and they are hoping it will help boost turnout for the midterms, for which Democratic voters are historically lazy.  When you couple bad polling methods with a ground game that isn’t being taken into account, you have a much closer and more interesting election than the pundits suggest.

Isn’t the narrative that it’s a done deal for the Republicans getting old yet? Apparently the hip talking points among the mainstream crowd stay the same even when proven flawed, because relevance.

The Obama team told the media over and over again in the 2012 election about their ground game, their internal and localized polls, and why they weren’t worried about the national polls. They explained to the press (I sat in on one such informative call so I know it happened) that the voters that the pollsters were writing off were going to show up.  Few listened (Nate Silver, Harvard polling, Jason Easley…. the list was small).  And apparently, just as few learned anything.

Republicans smugly dissed Team Obama in 2012 for explaining his ground game, saying it doesn’t matter how many people you engage:

That said, it doesn’t matter how many offices you have, staff you hire, or ground game plans you have – you need a candidate who can tell the American people why things will be better, not worse, after four years of their leadership. The choice is clear: Governor Romney is offering Americans a future of more jobs, more take home pay, and less debt. The President can’t do the same.”

Oh, yeah, ground game totally didn’t matter. Actual people voting totally doesn’t matter. Reality sucks.

Ironically, Republicans are running on the same thing this November election after their years long plan to run against Obamacare turned into a predictable fail. Yes, they are running against what they call the “Obama’s culture of failure”. This, coming from the George W. Bush party, is nothing but amusing. It is even more amusing when taking into account that the reason they can’t run against Obamacare is because it is a success. Republicans have rarely met a reality they couldn’t deny.

Perhaps it’s too soon, but if Democrats do hold on to the Senate, here’s hoping Majority Leader Harry Reid heard Mitch McConnell’s plans to change the Senate rules to pass a bunch of GOP junk (read: ALEC and Koch legislation) upon a Republican takeover. DO IT HARRY. DO IT FOR YOUR COUNTRY.

41 Replies to “Democrats Shock the Media By Pulling Ahead in Several Key Senate Races”

  1. The only poll that really matters is the one on Tuesday November 4th. That’s when Democrats must get out and vote the fascist Republicans out of office and kick them to the curb!! Any Democrat that stays home and doesn’t vote may as well be voting for Republicans. Take a friend, neighbor, family member, whoever to the polls with you and vote blue. #WeAreUniteBlue

  2. Spot on Sarah and Jason…..ground work is what will win these races and the dems have been running marathon races. I’ve said this before, look at the individual contributions in the state opposed to the outside interests. This says who will win especially in KY.
    If they do not win, they will thrown even worse temper tantrums than we’ve seen in the past. “Be prepared for the fringe”.

  3. You can dislike a political party, call them names. But your word Fascist is not a good word. NAZIs were of this ilk. If you have to equate Fascists to a party…..stop and think which party has done more to hurt MORE people? The GOP was the party that ended segregation, forced civil rights through. The “other” party fought very hard to prevent this. You have a selective history with parts that suit your point………GET the whole history…then you may be “more” infornmed.

  4. And this is their last chance at containing a demographic free-fall. If democrats hold on in 2014, 2016 will euthanize GOP chances of keeping a packed Supreme Court to do their bidding.

  5. I would challenge any Republican or right-wing ideologue who invokes “Obama’s culture of failure” to articulate specifically what he has done that is a failure and back it up with actual, credible evidence.

  6. I like this :
    —It is even more amusing when taking into account that the reason they can’t run against Obamacare is because it is a success. Republicans have rarely met a reality they couldn’t deny.——-

    Ha! So true! Bagdhad BOB comes to mind. Remember him? (not bring up the Iraq War here but) He was Saddam’s Public Information honcho, he went on live TV to announce that American tanks were nowhere near Bagdhad in 2003, then lo and behold….what comes into view in the windows behind him? AMERICAN TANKS rolling down the avenue. That’s what the Republican pundits and their audience are blind to: REALITY! But between you and me…let it be so. {{{Wink-Wink}}} Yes? ;)

  7. Stop your bullshit. They did that 50 years ago. What have you done for me lately. And the word Facist fits your cesspool of idiots and racist. Try picking up a dictionary sometime
    fas·cism
    noun: fascism; noun: Fascism; plural noun: Fascisms
    an authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization.

  8. OK then. Based on you reply please explain how “fascist” doesn’t apply to the GOP in both historic, and present day context.

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fascism

    fas·cism noun ˈfa-ˌshi-zəm also ˈfa-ˌsi-
    : a way of organizing a society in which a government ruled by a dictator controls the lives of the people and in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government
    :very harsh control or authority
    Full Definition of FASCISM
    1 often capitalized : a political philosophy, movement, or regime (as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition
    2 :a tendency toward or actual exercise of strong autocratic or dictatorial control
    — fas·cist noun or adjective often capitalized
    — fas…

  9. I can only hope that Kentucky gets some true blue representation instead of that traitor named McConnell.
    It would also be nice to see a monkey on the ballot against John Boehner in Ohio. Who knows; the monkey might win.

  10. Hello? Quit living in the past when it comes to repubs. They did a 360 when the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act were past. Then they bought into the racist views of the repub party.
    Most voters now have no clue what you are talking about. They only know them as disgusting. The repubs are hateful, racist, ignorant mostly white folks who are hell bent on destroying us. They will not accept who we are as a country.
    Forget the repubs of the past. They are no more and never will be.

  11. I imagine that the new “We don’t need to vote because we’re Kentucky and the R always wins” brand of voter apathy is going to be a bit of a shock for them come November 5.

  12. Dear Old Veteran: I respect your service but not your understanding of modern political history. It was the Republicans who ended slavery, but after the Civil War both parties were so busy stealing money they allowed Jim Crow to live for 90 years. As the liberal Democrats began to embrace Civil Rights in the 50s and 60s, the same racists who had held the South solid for the Democrats began to switch parties, headed by South Carolina’s own Strom Thurmond. By the mid-60s the process was completed and the Democrats did all the heavy lifting on race relations in this country. Now with the vehement hatred toward our first African-American president, the refuge of the racists is only in the Republican Party from where it must finally be voted into oblivion.

  13. Quite right. By 2016, certainly 2020, the demographics of the country will have reached a tipping point. Colorado and much of the west will be firmly blue. Georgia is next and then Texas. We will have Democratic presidents (and Supreme Courts) for a generation. The Republicans have made so many extreme statements lately because that is what they are down to for candidates, people on the fringe. The American middle already figured that out in 2008 and 2012 and the gap is only getting wider.

  14. OldVetran, if you were an old veteran then you would know the FACT that the regimes of Hitler<Nazi, Mussolini, Fascist, Franco, Fascist were ALL I repeat ALL Christian CONSERVATIVES!!! There that's the reality and FACT that you deny and attribute to some sort of "Liberal Propaganda" The NAZI Conservatives used the same propaganda that you eat with zeal in WW2 and today in Fox News.

  15. Ha Ha ! You´re Crazy ! The RATpubliKKKans haven´t done anything for civil rights since Lincoln ! LBJ started pushing civil rights thru and all the dixie crats went an joined the GOP (Grand Old Problem )! If they are sooo pro civil rights why aren´t minorities and Women Flocking to their party ?? Change the tin-foil in your hat and quit watching FOX ! They LIE alot !!

  16. This does not surprise me, and it wouldn’t surprise the media if they did their d**n jobs, and not worn out talking points.
    Democrats will own this midterm, I’ve been saying this all year. When you volunteer, you learn how people feel, and voters are angry. Mitch will be unemployed come November.

  17. Don’t Start with this “it isn’t fascism” crap. I’m a veteran too, yet I can see fascism when I see it, and with those two rich pukes whose grandparents were friends with Hitler putting their dirty money into play in so many races, they’re essentially buying the election for their own cause. That IS fascism.

    The GOP may have ended slavery and helped pass civil rights laws, but we always tend to forget they fell and bumped their heads somewhere over the course of the last 50 years and became the party of idiots who want to drag us back to pre-1860 days.

  18. It isn’t that hard to access the voting record in Congress on the Civil Rights Act. Republicans could not have passed the act without Democrats because Democrats far outnumbered the GOP in the House and Senate. Not one Republican from the South voted in favor. Of course they only numbered eleven. Out of 94 Southern Democrat Representatives…only seven voted in favor and of the 21 Southern Democrat Senators…one voted aye. Total aye votes from Northern Democrat Representatives was 153. Total aye votes from Northern Republican Representatives =136. In the Senate…Aye votes from Northern Democrats = 46. Northern Republican Senators voting in favor of the Civil Rights Act was 27. It didn’t take long for the eleven Democrat Southern States to lose five to the Republican party the same year of 1964.

  19. Ancient history. Look up Southern Strategy re GOP 20th century voting strategies. Hint: after Johnson signed Civil Rights Act Southern Democrats joined the GOP, the current basis for their party.

  20. The most important demographic hasn’t been discussed.

    Internet. Smartphones. Those who have never known what it is like NOT to be able to read your friend’s minds.

    The ghastly quality of internet ads is indicative of a failure of think. They are crude, repetitive and sometimes unintentionally funny.

    They have no idea how to campaign across the Web. They couldn’t blog if they had to – and they should have to.
    Marketing firms have hijacked the election process. But much of that money is spent on television or radio. Suckers….

  21. I think you are misleading everyone when you claim it was the Republicans who got rid of segregation. While it is true the original Republican party was “center right”, consisting of moderates (they’re known as RINO’s today) and establishment conservatives. The Democrat party was right-center-left, consisting of well-paid professionals, union workers, but also Dixiecrats who worked for the poor white man, but against the minorities. It was LBJ, a democrat in the White House who signed a lot of legislation to grant civil rights and voting rights to the Black Community, although there was moderate Republican support. This angered all the Dixiecrats who first formed a 3rd party with George Wallace and then migrated over to the Republican party as we know it today. The gun enthusiasts and Pro-Life types also quit the democrat party and came over. As well as a lot of billionare global plutrocrats, such as the Kotch brothers. So there you have it.

  22. Nick,this is where you’re wrong..
    Think back to 1964 & the civil rights marches… The southern Republicans wanted to keep segregation because of a misguided notion that segregation was mentioned in the bible..( Gen 9:verse 24)
    Look it up if you want to…
    the three civil rights orkers that were murdered by members of the Klan( they were Jewish)…even the Governor of alabama said that that crime should be left alone!
    As for the pro lifers… How do you thinkthat they are going to fund the lives of the children that they’ve “saved”?
    Pro-life cares nothing for the chilld afte it is born,or the moher for that matter!

  23. I’m signed up and assisting the Jason Carter/Michelle Nunn campaigns. I’ve also volunteered to GOTV and for something I’ve never done–driving people to the polls on election day. We can do this. When dems vote, we win.

    Also, if GOPTPers say ground games don’t count, why are they trying to copy our 50 state strategy?

  24. Friday saw the US economy add a very solid 248,000 private sector jobs, 2014 will be the best year of US employment since the late 90’s. Comments from conservatives all over the internet had me in disbelief, their hatred for president Obama is so deep they are incapable of giving him any credit. The US is averaging well above 200,000 payrolls per month and conservatives comments are claiming the US economy is not recovering. Were this happening under Romney they would be online commenting how “it’s morning in America again”, very sad.

  25. “The GOP was the party that ended segregation, forced civil rights through.”

    Oh, God.

    Who told you that drivel ?

    JFK proposed, and LBJ signed, the Civil Rights Act.

    The attempted Filibuster was by Dixiecrats, the Southern
    Conservative Democratic Splinter Party.

    They were filibustering OUR own Bill !

    And all 18 GOP Congressmen from the South ALSO opposed the Civil Rights Act.

    In the North, 91% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats agreed on Civil Rights; that’s a statistical tie.

    The attempted Filibuster failed and a Democrat signed the Civil Rights Act into law.

    Sorry, Republicans don’t get credit for ending segregation or authoring the Civil Rights Act.

    Dems did that !

    Afterward, the Dixiecrats were so angry they broke away, and joined the Republican Party.

    Uh, sorry about that.

    Better you than us.

  26. The reason the left/libs/progressives blah blah keep changing the name is because they keep rebranding in hopes to lose the bad image of the past. Indoctrination from the media/colleges/pop culture/have to incur because their policies are not natural to common sense. These people are the useful idiots that Marx talked about. Drink the kool aid kiddies.

  27. Please let us stop bickering on what republicans and democrats did years ago or now. Take some breathers and ask yourself if you as individual or us as a nation are better off at the moment.
    Our story should be about PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY which is the antidote to all the craps by political parties.
    As a black man who came from family with strong democrats values, I am happy that I broke the mold.
    I do not want any party to be responsible for my food, schooling, the way I think, my contraceptive, where I send my kids to school, or feel sorry for me and encouraged me in order to give free vote to stay home and depend on government for the rest of my life. This mindset had ruined many great minds especially men in my family. I dared the repubs years ago. I wanted to know what make them successful.
    I worked hard and able to say I can now help many including my family members that are still embracing the mindset that someone owe them something. IT IS TIME TO WAKE UP.

  28. There is no indoctrination – I know that is the hardest thing to accept of all – but its the truth. It doesn’t matter how you learn to think critically – IF you learn to think critically, the GOP’s agenda suddenly turns to straw. While it is true, I hold a post graduate degree in the sciences NOW, I did not when I left my parent’s Republican party and became an independent and then a Democrat. At that time I had nothing but a seminary degree from a conservative seminary – BUT I had been taught to think. So I looked at the issues and thought about them – and quickly recognized that for roughly 80% of the total populace of the United States, to vote Republican was to, rationally, vote against yourself. I am fortunate, I’m not in that 80%, BUT, I am also moral and ethical – and there too the hatreds and bitternesses of the GOP offer no solace – so I, like many other well educated liberals vote Democratic because it is the only moral choice, as well as the only good choice for mos…

  29. There once was a Republican party that rational people could vote for. I’m a Democrat, and didn’t vote for them, but I could recognize why some people would. That party is gone. Is it fair to call them fascists? I’d rather not. They call Obama every name under the sun, with no basis at all. I’d rather just call them crazy.

  30. point is vote november 4th do not sit home or some other excuse go and vote democrats november this year, democrats come out in huge numbers, we democrats this midterm is important, so we dems cannot afford to not vote, we must vote no excuses, if u dont vote for dems ur lazy

  31. This site is Liberal Democrats meeting of the minds. Too bad you are just talking among yourselves and harldly there is conservative views represented here. Each participant agrees with each other. What a boring place.

  32. Well maybe if you baggers had a ideal we can discuss it but first you have to know what you are talking about

  33. Please wise one point out where CONS actually had small government? BTW I mean this century not 100 years ago like you baggers tend to do to validate your idiocy

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