Two new polls of the Senate races in Kansas and North Carolina reveal that a Republican wave remains media wishful thinking, as Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads in North Carolina, and Independent Greg Orman is tied with Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas.
The PPP poll of North Carolina found Sen. Kay Hagan leading her Republican challenger Thom Tillis 46%-43%. The bad news for Republicans is that the North Carolina race features a voter breakdown that looks like the roadmap to a Democratic victory. Hagan lead with women (49%-37%), African-Americans (85%-4%), and young voters (61%-27%). Tillis leads with men (49%-42%), white voters (55%-34%), and seniors (54%-37%) Hagan has a better net approval rating (-9) than Tillis (-12), and has consistently maintained the same roughly three point lead for months.
The Kansas Senate race is turning into a nailbiter. A new Monmouth University poll shows Independent Greg Orman tied with Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 47%-47%. One of the main issues for Orman is that he has not been able to completely persuade Democrats. Orman got the support of 81% of Democratic. His support among Dems is ten points lower than the level of support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis. What is helping Orman is that only 76% of Republicans are supporting Sen. Roberts. Orman’s inability to woo more Democratic support is probably due to his refusal to say who he will caucus with if he wins.
Democrats keep doing better than the media is giving them credit for. The 2014 election is extremely close. The idea that there will be a Republican wave as some sort of backlash against President Obama remains a media driven fantasy.
The reality is that the media has chosen to push an anti-Obama storyline while ignoring the fact that the 2014 election is one of the closest midterms in decades. Anyone who claims to know how this election is going to turnout is not telling the truth.
The Republican Party has failed to turn the campaign into a national referendum on Obama, and the result is an election that is being contested on a state by state basis. The series of individualized election plays perfectly into the hands of the Democratic get out the vote machine.
The battle for control of the United States Senate will likely to come down to five close elections. The Senate majority will be decided by results in Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, and Iowa.
Democrats are hanging tough, and in position to turn the Republican wave of 2014 into a trickle down the pant leg of American democracy.