Posted on by Jason Easley

With 1 Week Until Election Day Democrat Bruce Braley Leads Joni Ernst In Iowa Senate Race

Braley-Ernst
A new Loras College Poll of Iowa’s Senate race reveals a very tight election with Democrat Bruce Braley leading Republican Joni Ernst 45%-44%.

Bloomberg News reported, “In results released Tuesday, Democrat Bruce Braley is supported by 45 percent of likely voters while Republican Joni Ernst has the backing of 44 percent. Eight percent remain undecided, and two percent plan to vote for another candidate, according to the poll. Braley’s advantage is well within the 2.9 percentage point margin of error….Among those who have already cast their ballots during Iowa’s early voting period, Budzisz said Braley had a six-point edge. Braley also has a small advantage among independent voters, 43.8 percent to 40.4 percent. The survey was conducted Oct. 21-24.”

It is too soon to tell is Ernst is being punished by voters for blowing off her scheduled appearances with the state’s newspaper editorial boards, but the election remains close. What is already the most overused cliche of the 2014 election definitely applies to the Iowa Senate race.

It all comes down to turnout. The party that gets more of their voters out will win. Ernst has been a gaffe machine on the campaign trail, but she has benefitted from the fact that Bruce Braley is no Tom Harkin. Braley was criticized for much of the election for the type of campaign that he has run. The words bland and boring were frequently used to refer to the candidate and his advertising.

As the campaign moved into the fall, Braley seemed to come to life. His speeches and his ads have been much stronger. The Democrat has also been boosted by campaign rallies with the top stars in the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and First Lady Michelle Obama have all rallied with the Iowa Democrat.

Control of the Senate hinges on the outcome of several elections. Iowa is at the center of all possible outcomes. If Democrats hold on to Iowa, the Republican path to the majority narrows. Democrats need to see one or two Republican incumbents lose, and hold on to Iowa in order to increase their chances of keeping the majority.

35 Replies to “With 1 Week Until Election Day Democrat Bruce Braley Leads Joni Ernst In Iowa Senate Race”

  1. I hope that Evil Bitch loses! Not only because of the obvious reasons but because her buddy $carah Pay-lin will have lost also by proxy.

  3. If a god truly blesses America she/he would make sure these bat shit crazies couldn’t take a crap in any government building

  4. Love ya’ll politicususa!
    Wait! their’s more: M. Begich (D-AK) up big 50% – 40%: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/526940455070859264
    Florida: GOP early voting edge cut to 7.2%, that already 1/2 of 2010 & gap should continue to shrink: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527099844398440449
    NC dems enjoy a (+17.1) lead in early vote; more than in 2012 (+16.1); & in 2010 (+9): https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527135030590865408
    K. Hagan (NC-D) see dems turn-out 110% cat votes, repubs 80% cast votes: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527135030590865408
    (continue)

  6. I expect him to win, but I must say, I am very disappointed with voters in this country. Not a one of these Senate and Gubernatorial races should be close. The Republicans should be losing by double digits. Snyder, and Brownback have bankrupted their states/cities, Christie likewise, but he was re-elected last year.
    Yet, these idiots are competitive. Since it is predominantly whites that vote for Republicans, they’re the ones hurting the country. They vote against themselves, which is a vote against everyone else.

  11. you must be a special kind of stupid to report he is leading her in the polls. Every reliable polling agency has her leading him, yet you try to sieze on the one fringe poll…Dumbazz……even Huffing Post has her winning!!!

  13. Mr Martin, are you admitting you are voting for a bigger wing nut then Bachmann is? This woman is Angle times 6000. total off the wall wing nut.

    Is that what you want? If so, you must be some kind of stupid

  15. Yes, Shiva, these people are a reeeal special kind of stupid.

    I just wished they truly loved America the way they’re always caterwaulin’ that they do – usually just before they turn around and stab her in the back by voting for anti-American, fascist-luvin’, xenophobic, and delusional Republicans that are out to destroy our country.

  17. If HuffPo has Ernst winning, then that means she is losing. HuffPo, TPM, MSNBC, Daily Kos, Salon.com, have inaccurate polling. How do I know? Easy, I am here in KY were these so called liberal blogs have been wrong about the race from the get go. Grimes has never been behind in the polls, yet, just two months ago they all said Alison was down 6 points. That never happened.
    My hubby and I donated to campaigns all across the country, so we’ve made it our business to follow these races. We’ve also educated ourselves as to which pollsters are accurate.

  20. Joni Ernst actually said during an NRA event in 2012 that she would use a gun to defend herself from the government:

    “I have a beautiful little Smith & Wesson, 9 millimeter, and it goes with me virtually everywhere,” Ernst said at the NRA and Iowa Firearms Coalition Second Amendment Rally in Searsboro, Iowa. “But I do believe in the right to carry, and I believe in the right to defend myself and my family — whether it’s from an intruder, or whether it’s from the government, should they decide that my rights are no longer important.”

    That’s like something Jared Loughner or John Wilkes Booth would say, and she should be called on it.

  22. since u name call u lose debate and guess what earnst will lose and u gop tea party baggers have a big surprise coming when dems keep us senate so move on bugger off we dems will vote in huge numbers so eat it[WINK]

  24. maxie2014 please keep me informed, my gut instinct all along this year is that the majority of polls showing gop winning us senate is wrong, all this year my gut instinct has been telling me that the democrats will keep the us senate

  25. Tani are you serious? The 4 month surplus was for March through June 2014. That includes the April tax revenues which are always received at the filing deadline. The 2014 fiscal year ended in September. There was no surplus. Just a half-trillion dollar deficit. Do you actually read the articles you link?

  27. lets just ignore the republicans and tea party baggers on this site come to lie to us and lets vote blue in massive numbers in early voting on november 4

  29. Based on HuffPost Pollster’s poll-tracking model, there is a:

    37%

    chance that Democrats will keep control of the Senate.

    63%

    chance that Republicans will take control of the Senate

  30. like i said before, you grab one fringe poll to push your agenda……..i am neither an Iowa voter nor a teabagger…Independent and you Democrats are losing us by the millions. You had control of everything and what did we get for it….nothing !! Term limits for all Senators and Congress!!

  31. Guess what your million of white fake Christian males are becoming an minority. But don’t fear we wont treat you like you treated us. Numbers never lie and your numbers are falling

  34. go away gop tea party bagger and o yes u will have a meltdown when dems keep senate but go right ahead d martin and believe those polls of showing gop winning, the polls are wrong mr martin u can bank this high turnout among early among dems and we will turnout november 4th and now u officially been warned that republicans will not gain the senate eat that, we dems and american peoples are sick of gop tp being obstructionists, gop tp is known to be only obstructionists and the party of shutdowns, o yes i did not forget the gop tp government shutdown last year in october and i also voted absentee and i voted all dems no gop no tp so stick it

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