A new Loras College Poll of Iowa’s Senate race reveals a very tight election with Democrat Bruce Braley leading Republican Joni Ernst 45%-44%.
Bloomberg News reported, “In results released Tuesday, Democrat Bruce Braley is supported by 45 percent of likely voters while Republican Joni Ernst has the backing of 44 percent. Eight percent remain undecided, and two percent plan to vote for another candidate, according to the poll. Braley’s advantage is well within the 2.9 percentage point margin of error….Among those who have already cast their ballots during Iowa’s early voting period, Budzisz said Braley had a six-point edge. Braley also has a small advantage among independent voters, 43.8 percent to 40.4 percent. The survey was conducted Oct. 21-24.”
It is too soon to tell is Ernst is being punished by voters for blowing off her scheduled appearances with the state’s newspaper editorial boards, but the election remains close. What is already the most overused cliche of the 2014 election definitely applies to the Iowa Senate race.
It all comes down to turnout. The party that gets more of their voters out will win. Ernst has been a gaffe machine on the campaign trail, but she has benefitted from the fact that Bruce Braley is no Tom Harkin. Braley was criticized for much of the election for the type of campaign that he has run. The words bland and boring were frequently used to refer to the candidate and his advertising.
As the campaign moved into the fall, Braley seemed to come to life. His speeches and his ads have been much stronger. The Democrat has also been boosted by campaign rallies with the top stars in the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and First Lady Michelle Obama have all rallied with the Iowa Democrat.
Control of the Senate hinges on the outcome of several elections. Iowa is at the center of all possible outcomes. If Democrats hold on to Iowa, the Republican path to the majority narrows. Democrats need to see one or two Republican incumbents lose, and hold on to Iowa in order to increase their chances of keeping the majority.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor, who is White House Press Pool, and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
I hope that Evil Bitch loses! Not only because of the obvious reasons but because her buddy $carah Pay-lin will have lost also by proxy.
Does Iowa really want their own Michele Bachmann?
If a god truly blesses America she/he would make sure these bat shit crazies couldn’t take a crap in any government building
Love ya’ll politicususa!
Wait! their’s more: M. Begich (D-AK) up big 50% – 40%: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/526940455070859264
Florida: GOP early voting edge cut to 7.2%, that already 1/2 of 2010 & gap should continue to shrink: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527099844398440449
NC dems enjoy a (+17.1) lead in early vote; more than in 2012 (+16.1); & in 2010 (+9): https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527135030590865408
K. Hagan (NC-D) see dems turn-out 110% cat votes, repubs 80% cast votes: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/527135030590865408
(continue)
Their More!
The Govt just posted it 1st-4 months Budget SURPLUS in years: http://www.businessinsider.com/first-four-month-government-surplus-in-years-2014-7
US economy is on track for its best growth in 9 years: http://www.businessinsider.com/first-four-month-government-surplus-in-years-2014-7
US Oct. Consumer Confidence rise to 94.5 vs 89.0: https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/527097674420744192
source: theobamadiary.com
GOTV 2014
I expect him to win, but I must say, I am very disappointed with voters in this country. Not a one of these Senate and Gubernatorial races should be close. The Republicans should be losing by double digits. Snyder, and Brownback have bankrupted their states/cities, Christie likewise, but he was re-elected last year.
Yet, these idiots are competitive. Since it is predominantly whites that vote for Republicans, they’re the ones hurting the country. They vote against themselves, which is a vote against everyone else.
Watch for endless recounts if Ernst loses.
She already has the lawyers lined up. Remember Norm Coleman.
Not only that but she looks like the old man from Pawn Stars.
For those who wants to keep up with early voting for all states here is an excellent resource
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
you must be a special kind of stupid to report he is leading her in the polls. Every reliable polling agency has her leading him, yet you try to sieze on the one fringe poll…Dumbazz……even Huffing Post has her winning!!!
The poll was release today huffpo was last week DUMBASS TEBAGGER
Mr Martin, are you admitting you are voting for a bigger wing nut then Bachmann is? This woman is Angle times 6000. total off the wall wing nut.
Is that what you want? If so, you must be some kind of stupid
what is that growing on her head
Yes, Shiva, these people are a reeeal special kind of stupid.
I just wished they truly loved America the way they’re always caterwaulin’ that they do – usually just before they turn around and stab her in the back by voting for anti-American, fascist-luvin’, xenophobic, and delusional Republicans that are out to destroy our country.
Rocky Mountain oysters?
If HuffPo has Ernst winning, then that means she is losing. HuffPo, TPM, MSNBC, Daily Kos, Salon.com, have inaccurate polling. How do I know? Easy, I am here in KY were these so called liberal blogs have been wrong about the race from the get go. Grimes has never been behind in the polls, yet, just two months ago they all said Alison was down 6 points. That never happened.
My hubby and I donated to campaigns all across the country, so we’ve made it our business to follow these races. We’ve also educated ourselves as to which pollsters are accurate.
I voted for Braley today. Joni Ernst is cray-cray.
Lmao! http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DejWlekKQfI
Joni Ernst actually said during an NRA event in 2012 that she would use a gun to defend herself from the government:
“I have a beautiful little Smith & Wesson, 9 millimeter, and it goes with me virtually everywhere,” Ernst said at the NRA and Iowa Firearms Coalition Second Amendment Rally in Searsboro, Iowa. “But I do believe in the right to carry, and I believe in the right to defend myself and my family — whether it’s from an intruder, or whether it’s from the government, should they decide that my rights are no longer important.”
That’s like something Jared Loughner or John Wilkes Booth would say, and she should be called on it.
lol i love pawn stars that show, maybe she can marry the old man on pawn stars
since u name call u lose debate and guess what earnst will lose and u gop tea party baggers have a big surprise coming when dems keep us senate so move on bugger off we dems will vote in huge numbers so eat it[WINK]
Joe your comment is particularly vile. Were you always thus way?
maxie2014 please keep me informed, my gut instinct all along this year is that the majority of polls showing gop winning us senate is wrong, all this year my gut instinct has been telling me that the democrats will keep the us senate
Tani are you serious? The 4 month surplus was for March through June 2014. That includes the April tax revenues which are always received at the filing deadline. The 2014 fiscal year ended in September. There was no surplus. Just a half-trillion dollar deficit. Do you actually read the articles you link?
i read this today on internet here is the link it is usually good sign for dems, lets pray it helps dems >>> Early voter turnout explodes in New Orleans; could be good sign for Mary Landrieu http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/10/early_voter_turnout_explodes_i.html
lets just ignore the republicans and tea party baggers on this site come to lie to us and lets vote blue in massive numbers in early voting on november 4
This is not a poll but actual votes that has been cast
IA Quinnipiac Stunner: Braley UP 57% -36% In Heavy Early Voting
Quinnipiac, who are a very reputable outfit with no Blue lean are saying that we’ve already bagged a 21% lead among the 1/3rd of Iowans VERY MUCH MOST LIKELY TO VOTE, AS IN 100%, NO CHANGE-BACKS.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/29/1340049/-IA-Quinnipiac-Stunner-Braley-UP-57-36-In-Heavy-Early-Voting
Based on HuffPost Pollster’s poll-tracking model, there is a:
37%
chance that Democrats will keep control of the Senate.
63%
chance that Republicans will take control of the Senate
like i said before, you grab one fringe poll to push your agenda……..i am neither an Iowa voter nor a teabagger…Independent and you Democrats are losing us by the millions. You had control of everything and what did we get for it….nothing !! Term limits for all Senators and Congress!!
Guess what your million of white fake Christian males are becoming an minority. But don’t fear we wont treat you like you treated us. Numbers never lie and your numbers are falling
ha ha wrong again, african american brother!!
Wrong about what? Explain yourself
go away gop tea party bagger and o yes u will have a meltdown when dems keep senate but go right ahead d martin and believe those polls of showing gop winning, the polls are wrong mr martin u can bank this high turnout among early among dems and we will turnout november 4th and now u officially been warned that republicans will not gain the senate eat that, we dems and american peoples are sick of gop tp being obstructionists, gop tp is known to be only obstructionists and the party of shutdowns, o yes i did not forget the gop tp government shutdown last year in october and i also voted absentee and i voted all dems no gop no tp so stick it
mr martin and gop tp has a surprise coming when dems keep us senate hahaha