Latest Poll Shows Democrat Mark Udall Gaining Five Points In Colorado US Senate Race

mark udall

On Monday, Quinnipiac released a poll that showed a dramatic shift from the survey they had done the week before for Colorado’s US Senate race. In the poll last week, the firm showed Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) ahead of the incumbent Democrat Mark Udall by seven points, 46% to 39%. However, Monday’s results showed the race a lot tighter, with Gardner’s lead shrinking to two points, 45% to 43%.

The poll also showed that the state’s gubernatorial race is just as up in the air. Incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper currently trails his Republican opponent Bob Beauprez by two points, 45% to 43%. The firm’s previous survey had Beauprez up by five points less than two weeks ago. This election is Colorado’s first with an all mail-in ballot. Therefore, a number of voters have already cast their votes. Among those who have, Beauprez leads Hickenlooper by four points, 46% to 42%.

As for the Senate race, Udall trails Gardner by five points among those who have already voted, 47% to 42%. However, the Democrat is up significantly with independent voters. 43% of independents favor Udall while only 36% back Gardner. Udall is up with women voters, but not by that much, as he only has a three-point lead, 47% to 44%. Gardner holds a nine-point lead with men, 47% to 38%. The poll also showed that most voters had made up their mind. Only 4% stated that they may change their mind before voting.

Interestingly, Quinnipiac did not release much demographic information with this most recent poll. Aside from party affiliation and sex, nothing else was released. Therefore, we are not privy to information regarding race, ethnicity and age, as well as the sampling size of any of these particular groups. Considering that Colorado has a significant Latino population that tends to vote Democratic, it is possible that this poll, and other that have been released over the past couple of months, are not accurately reflecting the Latino voter base.

On Friday, Politico published an article from a Latino polling firm, Latino Decisions, in which the authors argued that polls in Colorado are are not providing an accurate portrait of Colorado’s Latino voters. Essentially, due to polling firms relying exclusively on English-speaking pollsters, as well as dialing up mostly landlines, the picture provided via their polls of Latino voters could be vastly different from the actual Latino voting base. The authors also suggested that the polls have vastly underestimated Latino voter participation in this election.

Latino Decisions brought up the 2010 Nevada election where Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) held off a challenge from Republican Sharron Angle. Reid ended up winning by nearly six points despite him being down to Angle in nearly every poll heading into the election. While part of Angle’s loss has always been tied to her extremist views, Nate Silver and other poll watchers have said that the main reason for the surprise is that polls in Nevada didn’t accurately measure the Latino vote. Basically, Reid was always up in the race but the polls didn’t do a good job capturing a true reflection. This is Latino Decision’s argument in Colorado.

It is quite possible that the polls in Colorado have been accurate the whole time and Udall has generally been behind these past two months. However, it may just be that Colorado, a state with a growing Latino population that counted for 12% of the electorate in 2010 and 14% in 2014, isn’t being accurately portrayed by the polls that have been conducted and Latino voters will be the difference in this race.

 

12 Replies to “Latest Poll Shows Democrat Mark Udall Gaining Five Points In Colorado US Senate Race”

  1. The Democratic grassroots, and GOTV effort will pay off big for Democrats tomorrow. The GOP screaming like 2 year olds, and the corporate media will lie about it as usual.

  2. I do not expect him to loose, and frankly, I don’t believe these polls for the reason that they have ALL the Democrats trailing, with the excellent of the Governor’s race in Pennsylvania!
    MSNBC called the Senate race for McConnell on Schultz show and we haven’t voted yet! Alison has this!

  3. If the absentee ballots are high on the republican side, in battled ground states….they cheated and need to be scrutinize very carefully. I was in a ups store today and they said they’d never been so busy with next day letters and didn’t know what was going on. Letters to supervisor of election offices! They probably voted for nursing home residents, dead people, and who knows who else…..

  4. The Koch brothers have spent millions backing Gardner, a climate-change denier and sponsor of ludicrous “personhood” bills. Colorado with its astonishing natural scenery needs to be represented not by a yes-man for dirty energy interests but by someone who cares about the environment, and that’s Mark Udall. Look at their lifetime scorecards from the League of Conservation Voters: Gardner has a 9% rating, whereas Udall has a 97% rating. Vote Udall.

  5. No way a poll changes that much in that short a span. Either their model is distorted, or they are calling people from one area then another area, like a red district then a blue one next poll. Getting more of one subset than the other. Or people are messing with them.

  6. It does not matter what the “polls” say, what matters is the turn out. Here in CO, the state sent every voter a paper voting ballot.

    Today, when I turned in our household of 3 ballots, they could be mailed in or dropped off, there were lots of others streaming in to do the same. When I mentioned to the people accepting the ballots that I really liked that the state had mailed out the ballots to us, they said most everyone had expressed the same approval.

    Of course we will see how this all plays out, but I like it so far.

    Push for paper ballots people, push that they be mailed to residents and accepted via same signiture on motor vehical or other state registrations.

  7. From what I understand, post mark on mail in ballots would not be accepted here in CO, it was too late to mail in your ballot after oct 31, to vote after that date you’d have to hand deliver your state mailed voter ballot to a drop off location or hand the ballot over at a voting location on nov. 4th in order to machine vote.

    Hope I explained that correctly for Colorado.

  8. Anyone who has researched paperless electronic voting machines knows that they are extremely fraud friendly. Having a paper ballot is the only way to have a record of the vote for a recount if necessary. I fully support expanding the franchise by making it easier to vote.Thanks to everyone who takes the time to be informed about the issues and candidates and votes. I hope that Udall does carry the day. Gardner’s refusal to acknowledge that human activity contributes to global warming is reckless. Gardner’s dishonesty about whether the Federal bill he co-sponsored was a personhood bill is alarming.

  9. The Quinnipiac polls are bouncing around all over the place. I don’t know who they’re polling, but it’s pretty abnormal for the polls to be jumping around like theirs are. I don’t think it serves any purpose at this point to pay any attention to Quinnipiac. From what I’ve read online the polls this election are not very reliable in general, and are in fact less reliable than they were last election. I think we might as well give up on them and just wait to see what the voters decide. At least then we will have something accurate.

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